Tick Tock

[JSR]

1 minute ago, RoughCut said:

You didn’t answer the question....

 

I said they wrote the rule wrong. That means they set it up this way.

[codyhuntsaz]

18 minutes ago, RoughCut said:

I’m sure this will go nowhere but answer me this one question. Do you think G&F set up the youth tag sign-over so that people could game the system?

I think they set the rule up to create more revenue, plain and simple. If you’re telling me that they didn’t think that this is exactly what would happen and that they were OK with it because of the revenue generated, you’re not giving them enough credit.

[1uofacat]

several things... 

1)  Ethics relates to legality.  Using ones grandparent's points to get tags is legal, therefore "ethical".  Is that "moral"?  Maybe, maybe not, but after 5 years of hunting licenses & fees to boost chances, the real question people should ask themselves is was it worth it for a few more % points?

2)  Draw percentages, the way I read the G&F draw rules... I ran some numbers & came up with the following:  Assuming there are 200 tags in a hunt & there are a total of 13,272 total "points" in that hunt's draw (adding up all applicants points  randomly assigned)  each point gets you 1.5069% chance of drawing one of the 200 tags.  If you have 20 points you have a 30.1386% chance of drawing one of the 200 tags.  Multiple hunters on one application that average 5 points/each have a 7.5347% chance of getting 4 of the 200 tags, assuming that when their app was selected at least 4 tags were left over.  For that reason, their chances are slightly less than that...

3)  4 hunters averaging 5 points each does not equal 1 hunter with 20 points % of getting a tag.  4 with 5 points is same as a lone applicant with 5 points (7.53%...).

4)  An applicant with no bonus points still has a 1.5069% chance of drawing one of the 200 tags.  

5)  This does show your chances of drawing a tag are directly proportional to your # of bonus points (someone with 4 bonus points is 5x as likely to draw a tag compared to someone with 0 bonus points).

6) I spent too much time on this... 🤔

[codyhuntsaz]

7 minutes ago, 1uofacat said:

several things... 

1)  Ethics relates to legality.  Using ones grandparent's points to get tags is legal, therefore "ethical".  Is that "moral"?  Maybe, maybe not, but after 5 years of hunting licenses & fees to boost chances, the real question people should ask themselves is was it worth it for a few more % points?

2)  Draw percentages, the way I read the G&F draw rules... I ran some numbers & came up with the following:  Assuming there are 200 tags in a hunt & there are a total of 13,272 total "points" in that hunt's draw (adding up all applicants points  randomly assigned)  each point gets you 1.5069% chance of drawing one of the 200 tags.  If you have 20 points you have a 30.1386% chance of drawing one of the 200 tags.  Multiple hunters on one application that average 5 points/each have a 7.5347% chance of getting 4 of the 200 tags, assuming that when their app was selected at least 4 tags were left over.  For that reason, their chances are slightly less than that...

3)  4 hunters averaging 5 points each does not equal 1 hunter with 20 points % of getting a tag.  4 with 5 points is same as a lone applicant with 5 points (7.53%...).

4)  An applicant with no bonus points still has a 1.5069% chance of drawing one of the 200 tags.  

5)  This does show your chances of drawing a tag are directly proportional to your # of bonus points (someone with 4 bonus points is 5x as likely to draw a tag compared to someone with 0 bonus points).

6) I spent too much time on this... 🤔

2) is incorrect.....13 points for that specific hunt may put you in the max pool guaranteeing you the tag therefor 13 points=100% chance of drawing, where 12 points may only be slightly better than having 2 points. 

[stanley]

2)  Draw percentages, the way I read the G&F draw rules... I ran some numbers & came up with the following:  Assuming there are 200 tags in a hunt & there are a total of 13,272 total "points" in that hunt's draw (adding up all applicants points  randomly assigned)  each point gets you 1.5069% chance of drawing one of the 200 tags.  If you have 20 points you have a 30.1386% chance of drawing one of the 200 tags.  Multiple hunters on one application that average 5 points/each have a 7.5347% chance of getting 4 of the 200 tags, assuming that when their app was selected at least 4 tags were left over.  For that reason, their chances are slightly less than that...

 

Ugh.....   Testing my memory of basic Statistics 200 many, many years ago, but I'm thinking you're wrong on the 30.1386% chance of drawing.  In order to have a 30% chance, you would need to hold 30% of the total points, I think.

Seems what you have is is a 1.5069% chance of drawing a tag, 20 different times.   Can't find the formula off the top of my head, but it is definitely NOT a 30% chance.

[1uofacat]

18 minutes ago, codyhuntsaz said:

2) is incorrect.....13 points for that specific hunt may put you in the max pool guaranteeing you the tag therefor 13 points=100% chance of drawing, where 12 points may only be slightly better than having 2 points. 

agreed, but was ignoring the "max pool"...

[1uofacat]

2 minutes ago, stanley said:

2)  Draw percentages, the way I read the G&F draw rules... I ran some numbers & came up with the following:  Assuming there are 200 tags in a hunt & there are a total of 13,272 total "points" in that hunt's draw (adding up all applicants points  randomly assigned)  each point gets you 1.5069% chance of drawing one of the 200 tags.  If you have 20 points you have a 30.1386% chance of drawing one of the 200 tags.  Multiple hunters on one application that average 5 points/each have a 7.5347% chance of getting 4 of the 200 tags, assuming that when their app was selected at least 4 tags were left over.  For that reason, their chances are slightly less than that...

 

Ugh.....   Testing my memory of basic Statistics 200 many, many years ago, but I'm thinking you're wrong on the 30.1386% chance of drawing.  In order to have a 30% chance, you would need to hold 30% of the total points, I think.

Seems what you have is is a 1.5069% chance of drawing a tag, 20 different times.   Can't find the formula off the top of my head, but it is definitely NOT a 30% chance.

you have to remember there are 200 tags or "events" so therefore your chance is multiplied 200x.

[jdub]

Good luck gents.

[1uofacat]

I didn’t include all the extraneous data, but if you remove all of the 200x info, each "point" has a .0075347% chance of being drawn.  IOW, 13,272*0.0075347 = 100% 

 

edit:

Also, that's for 1 tag... if you have 20 points your chances of drawing that 1 tag would be 0.150694%... but with 2 tags your % chance is doubled.  For 200 tags, your % chance is multiplied by 200   or 0.150694*200 = 30.14%...

Edited March 3, 2021 by 1uofacat

[stanley]

8 minutes ago, 1uofacat said:

you have to remember there are 200 tags or "events" so therefore your chance is multiplied 200x.

 

2 minutes ago, 1uofacat said:

I didn’t include all the extraneous data, but if you remove all of the 200x info, each "point" has a .0075347% chance of being drawn.  IOW, 13,272*0.0077347 = 100% 

I love this sort of stuff, so this is kind of driving me crazy.  🙄   Still grappling with 20 points equating to 30% chance of grabbing one of 200 tags, especially when each individual point is only a .00753 chance of being drawn.    Hmmmm.....

[jdub]

9 minutes ago, jdub said:

The draw hasn't happened.   Make sure your cards have room for your tag charge thru next week. Could happen Friday but I would not bet on it. Educated guess.

It's in IT's hands at this point and customer service has zero input or information on how these guys are doing or when they will flip the switch.  They are manually verifying all applications, I don't know what that means but it sounds brutal.

Good luck gents.

And there is apparently no plan on allowing people to update their cards again due to the delay.  Doesn't mean they won't do it but as of now they aren't.

[trophyseeker]

13 hours ago, nateNAU said:

Boughten 

Boy I guess you are right.they never thought me that word at NAU. I guess I should ask for my money back.

You should. It's "taught" not "thought."🙄  

[couesdeerhntr]

So I have been getting on the azgfd website everyday to see if I have had a status change on my portal saying I have not applied for the draw which I have and have noticed that my bonus points have been showing updated everyday so I kept looking at them. noticed I have a bison point that has been showing up and then going away for a few days now. Three days ago I had the point, and yesterday I did not and now today I do again. I drew the bison tag and harvested and should not have a point so that is why it caught my eye. Seems like they have some issues. Plus with all the cards that have Been declined sense the last update and can now not be changed if they don’t have a new update deadline I only see serious problems at hand from this draw.

[1uofacat]

21 minutes ago, stanley said:

 

I love this sort of stuff, so this is kind of driving me crazy.  🙄   Still grappling with 20 points equating to 30% chance of grabbing one of 200 tags, especially when each individual point is only a .00753 chance of being drawn.    Hmmmm.....

for me, my odds for getting a bull tag are about 10%.  The best way for me to think about this is that it's similar to bear attacks.  

 

Some have said that only 1 in 100 bears would consider attacking a man.  The problem is they aren't required to come in numerical order.  Same goes for getting a bull tag, they aren't required to to be given out in numerical order!

[1uofacat]

32 minutes ago, stanley said:

 

I love this sort of stuff, so this is kind of driving me crazy.  🙄   Still grappling with 20 points equating to 30% chance of grabbing one of 200 tags, especially when each individual point is only a .00753 chance of being drawn.    Hmmmm.....

this is why they instituted the bonus pass... because one could have 50 bonus points or more & never draw a tag... trying to help those with a lot of points get a tag.