Tick Tock

[codyhuntsaz]

51 minutes ago, bonecollector said:

Didnt you draw last year and turn the tag in? 

Quit Bitching! 😂

 

I did draw 2 years ago, with max points for  that unit. Turned the tag back in and didn’t draw last year in a new unit because I don’t have max points for that hunt. I’m great full for point guard, I’m a big advocate for point guard. My argument isn’t against point guard, it’s that it takes max points most times to draw an above average tag while the majority of the tags go to people with far less time invested. Again, in my opinion 25 BP should be worth more than a couple % better odds of drawing than someone with 2 BP. I don’t care if a guy like me with 25 points or a guy with 2 points uses point guard for ANY reason. It’s insurance, it’s up to them how they use it, they paid for it. 

[GreyGhost85]

1 hour ago, Flatlander said:

I cannot think of a way to arrive at defining who deserves and who doesn’t that doesn’t appear self serving. I am grateful that my boy has had the chance to hunt while he can. Because in all likelihood his days of hiking, hunting and packing are numbered. But drawing those lines is dicey and creates opportunity for exactly what you have described.

From what I have seen of the system, there are a couple orgs that do it right. I do to ow about the rest.

So, from what I gather, the system is broken but you will continue to take advantage of the broken system until the broken system is fixed? Without point guard, there will be next to zero donated tags. You do not agree with point guard but will continue to reap it's benefits? Nobody deserves glory tags except that people who are "qualified" to receive them? Quite the conundrum you're caught in.  The biggest org in Arizona does NOT do it correctly. Allotting 5 glory tags to one person in a year, regardless of their medical condition is not ok. 

[Sneaker]

17 hours ago, codyhuntsaz said:

“Already tough enough.....” the guy with 20 BP for antelope and the guy with 2 BP basically have the same chance of drawing if they apply for the same hunt. I know it’s an unpopular opinion among a lot of hunters, but the guy with 20 point should have a more weighted advantage in drawing that tag...just my opinion. 

This isn’t true. Someone with zero bonus point has 1/21 the chance of someone with 20 bonus points in any draw in the random pass. It is a direct relationship. It’s just flat statistics. The chances are all low on good tags in random pass, which distorts how we think about it, but the person with the 20 bonus points has 20x greater chances to draw vs someone with none. Everyone always hears about the guy with low bonus points that draws and it seems like they have the same chances but really they don’t and overall in the long run when you look at results distributions, someone with one bonus point draws double the amount of times that someone with zero bonus points does... you are always better off with 2 names on the hat that one, double the chances, etc. Law of averages. I have a couple friends that don’t understand and won’t believe me, because they are the unlucky souls who can’t draw outside max pool, but that’s how it works folks.

[1uofacat]

16 minutes ago, buffhunter said:

They have updated my bonus points 3 days in a row now, but it still doesn't show my elk app that was put in on the last day, but shows my pronghorn app that was put in a week before.  So I would say Friday at the earliest.  But then I would think the  Friday after because I bet they do another card update deadline. 

how do you know they updated your portal 3 days in a row if the only thing updated was adding your 'lope tag the first time?  Did they send multiple notes stating points were updated?

 

As far as the draw goes, we still have two accounts not updated that were submitted weeks before the deadline.  My vote, as if I have one, would be either just draw now or be open/honest about when you're going to be ready. 

 

Given the powers at the G&F don't seem to feel any accountability towards John Q, our first real indication of when it'll happen will likely be a flood of those rejoicing in message boards!  I doubt many will fake this due to karma!  🤣

[CouesFanatic]

15 minutes ago, Sneaker said:

This isn’t true. Someone with zero bonus point has 1/21 the chance of someone with 20 bonus points in any draw in the random pass. It is a direct relationship. It’s just flat statistics. The chances are all low on good tags in random pass, which distorts how we think about it, but the person with the 20 bonus points has 20x greater chances to draw vs someone with none. Everyone always hears about the guy with low bonus points that draws and it seems like they have the same chances but really they don’t and overall in the long run when you look at results distributions, someone with one bonus point draws double the amount of times that someone with zero bonus points does... you are always better off with 2 names on the hat that one, double the chances, etc. Law of averages. I have a couple friends that don’t understand and won’t believe me, because they are the unlucky souls who can’t draw outside max pool, but that’s how it works folks.

This is not correct. They have 20 more chances, not 20X chances. Look at the true draw odds from the game and fish. On these top end hunts 0-20 points is very little change in percentage to draw. Like .5%-1.2% from 0 through 20 points then when they hit the cap it goes to 40%, then 60%, then 100%. 

[buffhunter]

9 minutes ago, 1uofacat said:

how do you know they updated your portal 3 days in a row if the only thing updated was adding your 'lope tag the first time?  Did they send multiple notes stating points were updated?

 

As far as the draw goes, we still have two accounts not updated that were submitted weeks before the deadline.  My vote, as if I have one, would be either just draw now or be open/honest about when you're going to be ready. 

 

Given the powers at the G&F don't seem to feel any accountability towards John Q, our first real indication of when it'll happen will likely be a flood of those rejoicing in message boards!  I doubt many will fake this due to karma!  🤣

I know it's been updated 3 days in a row because I keep checking my portal for shits and grins and has said bonus points updated as of March 1st then yesterday said March 2nd and today it says March 3rd.  Who knows it could just change the day every new day as well and I'm just seeing this now....  

[5guyshunting]

3 minutes ago, buffhunter said:

I know it's been updated 3 days in a row because I keep checking my portal for shits and grins and has said bonus points updated as of March 1st then yesterday said March 2nd and today it says March 3rd.  Who knows it could just change the day every new day as well and I'm just seeing this now....  

It changes daily.

[1uofacat]

well... perhaps it does change daily

 

edit:  It does "update" every day one logs in, so its an automatic time stamp only.

[Sneaker]

2 minutes ago, CouesFanatic said:

This is not correct. They have 20 more chances, not 20X chances. Look at the true draw odds from the game and fish. On these top end hunts 0-20 points is very little chance in percentage to draw. Like .5%-1.2% to 20 points then when they hit the cap it goes to 40%, then 60%, then 100%. 

You don’t get it. You said “They have 20 more chances, not 20X chances.” But 20 more chances is 20x the chances of you are talking comparing to someone with no bonus points. To simplify they are single names in one hat. The draw odds for the results from the previous year the department puts out just show how the randomness fell, they don’t show what the chances were BEFORE the draw happened. 

[CouesFanatic]

20 more chances does not equal 20 times their current odds. If someone with zero points has a 2% chance, that doesn't mean someone with 20 points has a 40% chance. Yes they may have 20 more chances but they odds are still extremely low and very little change from 0 points to 20 points. Like I said its like .5 to 1.2% from 0 points to 20 points. Someone with 1 point below the max group has little to no benefit over someone with 0 points.

[codyhuntsaz]

2 minutes ago, Sneaker said:

You don’t get it. You said “They have 20 more chances, not 20X chances.” But 20 more chances is 20x the chances of you are talking comparing to someone with no bonus points. To simplify they are single names in one hat. The draw odds for the results from the previous year the department puts out just show how the randomness fell, they don’t show what the chances were BEFORE the draw happened. 

By that logic use someone with 20 points and someone with 4 points. They guy with 20 then only has 16 more chances, not 16x the chances. You’re scenario only works comparing someone against a person with 0 points. My point is the guy with 20 and the guy with 4 have the same % chance of drawing the same tag on a lot of hunts. As far as “how the randomness fell” part....wouldn’t the data after the draw basically show what your odds were going into the draw? 

[Sneaker]

Yeah with 4 vs 20 it’s 5 times the chances so it is 5 times the odds, sorry the “x” and zero points wasn’t the best example. Or technically 21/5 = 4.2x the true odds.

[68OLDS]

9 minutes ago, 5guyshunting said:

It changes daily.

You are correct.

The portal is misleading with the use of the word “updated”.  
 

It is not truly updating anything.  Instead it simply showing the current info as of the date you login and view it.  A better choice of words would have been “data current as of (insert current date)

once again the system is not the greatest, but unfortunately we’re kind of Stuck with it.
 

[bigorange]

18 hours ago, buffhunter said:

And then there is always this guy....lol

LoL you know I’m as anxious as everyone else. 

[codyhuntsaz]

3 minutes ago, Sneaker said:

Yeah with 4 vs 20 it’s 5 times the chances so it is 5 times the odds, sorry the “x” and zero points wasn’t the best example. Or technically 21/5 = 4.2x the true odds.

And in my opinion that’s not enough of an advantage. You’re talking MAYBE a 1% greater chance for the person who has been putting in 5 times as long. Either weight the points heavier or get rid of them all together. But I do like Nates idea of pooling the points.