Points Question

[varnco]

Trying to figure out my odds using go hunt.

The AZGFD web site says I have 4 points:

2 Species, 1 Loyalty and 1 Hunter Ed. So, is that how many points i have for the "Bonus Pass" and then for the next pass, I will have 5 points total (including this year's submission for a tag).

To calculate my odds of getting draw, do I use 4pts or do I enter 5, since I'll have 5 "random numbers" generated?

Thanks!

[Big Browns]

I always use what I currently have.

[varnco]

2 minutes ago, Big Browns said:

I always use what I currently have.

so, in my scenario, I would have 5 points even though the AZGFD site says "4", as I outlined? 

 

[high rise hunter]

You would use 4 points for both the bonus pass and random draw.

[lancetkenyon]

I don't want to ruin the fun here, but if you are serious, you are WAY off on how the draw works.

Depending on species choice (I am assuming elk), you have 4 BPs going into this draw.  If you are unsuccessful, you will be issued another BP, and have 5 BPs going into next year.

Now, you can put in for up to 5 hunt choices.  No matter whether you have 0 BPs or 30 BPs.  You will be issued a random number for each of your BPs and one for this year's application.  So totaling 5 numbers.  Let's say you are given #s 1017, 2032, 5089, 8591, 19001 for your "lottery" numbers. 

The Bonus round goes for the top BP holders, up to 10% of the available tags for their units of choice.  Unless you are putting in for cow elk hunts in bad units, you more than likely will not be in the bonus pass.

Next is the first pass.  They will start at #1, and whoever has #1 will get their 1st choice.  #2 next, and so on.  But, they ONLY look at choices 1 & 2 in the first round.  By the time they get to your #1017, they will look at your 1st and 2nd choices.  If there are tags left, you get a tag.  If not, you are reissued a random number for the 2nd pass, where they look at choices 3 thru 5.  Not usually many tags left in the 2nd round.  Low population units, limited opportunities, cow hunts maybe, etc.  Hardly ever any bull hunts in the 2nd round.

For me, I only put in two choices.  

 

Edit:  Nevermind.  You are looking for GoHunt draw odds.  I can't read for $#!t sometimes.  Use 5 points.  4 BPs plus the application.

[creed]

22 minutes ago, lancetkenyon said:

The Bonus round goes for the top BP holders, up to 10% of the available tags for their units of choice.  Unless you are putting in for cow elk hunts in bad units, you more than likely will not be in the bonus pass.

 

 

 

  I thought it was 20%??

[UggRedBilly]

11 minutes ago, creed said:

  I thought it was 20%??

Lance is right on the rest of it! The bonus pass is 20%. But go on youtube and look up Randy Newberg explaining it! Makes it a whole lot better!

 

But to answer your question YES you do have 5 chances at the tag pretty much! Because even people with 0 points have the single chance to get a tag!

5 points can get you any cow elk hunt in the state if you're talking 5 points for elk. Or you can even get a late rifle bull tag with 5 also!

[dustin25]

Only problem I see with above explanations is that after the bonus pass draw, the next phase is the 1/2 random draw, where if your lottery number is selected, they look at your number 1&2 choices and issue a tag if available, then move on to next app. Then the next phase is the same but for choices 3/4/5. There’s no draw for first choice, then a draw for 2nd choice etc.

also if you have 4 points, you should enter 4 points to see your odds, don’t add one for this year

[elkaholic]

UggRedBilly

 

How many yrs have you been applying for hunts. 

 

[lancetkenyon]

20%, nice!  Yeah, I honestly thought it was 10%.  Good to know.  

By the way, if you are talking pronghorn....good freaking luck with 5.

[azelkhunter2]

Hey lance....Remind me how many points Cole had when he drew his unit ten goat tag....😬

[UggRedBilly]

1 hour ago, elkaholic said:

UggRedBilly

 

How many yrs have you been applying for hunts. 

 

I have been applying for deer for about 7 years. 

But elk I've applied 3 times ever. I just bonus point this year because I am going to be moving out this summer and I don't want to stretch my money out too far!

[creed]

First time I applied for rifle antelope I drew. Back then the bonus round was 10%

It was unit 7 and 50 permits were issued. The first five went in the bonus round. The next 4 was our application. I have a friend that drew rifle antelope 3 years straight, all different units.

Daughter in law drew early rifle unit 9 bull with zero points.

It happens.

[wapitibob]

GoHunt doesn't show you your odds of drawing a hunt, they show you what your odds were for the previous draw. If you want to see those odds you use the points you had going into that draw. If you have 4 now, you had 3 then.

If you want semi predictive odds for this year you need to look at last years individual point groups for the hunt you are interested in but that doesn't really work either; there are hundreds of applicants at every point level that only bought a point and those guys don't show up in the odds reports. You also have people that change hunt units as their points increase. GoHunt uses their trend line to show the points required over the past few  years as kind of a predictor. 

[varnco]

I am probably running headfirst into a buzz saw, but according to their site:

https://www.gohunt.com/insider/draw-odds

DRAW ODDS

The most accurate draw odds ever.

Our data scientists and hunters have combined proprietary formulas and state data to reveal your true chance to draw hunts in the West.