Lookin4amonster Report post Posted July 31, 2008 On the main page of the azgfd.gov website there is a link to the "Survey, Harvest and Hunt Data for Big & Small Game", reading through this I came across the odds of drawing a tag based on the amount of bonus points an individual has... As expected, the odds increased with the more bonus points one has when it comes to the Antelope draw, but when looking at the Elk numbers I was puzzled... maybe you guys can help me figure this one out. Here's the data.. All the numbers look good up until 8 bonus points, but then the odds start to decrease until you hit 16 bonus points.. how is this?? Could it really be that my odds of drawing an elk tag are GREATER if I have 0 bonus points as opposed to 14 bonus points!?! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
azcouesandelk Report post Posted July 31, 2008 Think about all the cow hunts there are and the amount of people that only apply for cow hunts. For archery you can get drawn every year and for rifle it can be every other year if not every year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Lookin4amonster Report post Posted July 31, 2008 Think about all the cow hunts there are and the amount of people that only apply for cow hunts. For archery you can get drawn every year and for rifle it can be every other year if not every year. So that explains 0-2 bonus points if you can get a cow tag every other year at worst, but what about the numbers beyond that? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
soazarcher Report post Posted July 31, 2008 The guys with the most points are putting in for harder to draw hunts Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
azcouesandelk Report post Posted July 31, 2008 The guys with the most points are putting in for harder to draw hunts Bingo! Also the late rifle bull hunts take anywhere from 3 to 7 bp's to get a tag depending on where you apply. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Lookin4amonster Report post Posted July 31, 2008 I guess so .. I guess I'm still pretty baffled by the numbers though .. seems it should be different And why do the Antelope numbers look normal? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wklman Report post Posted July 31, 2008 because they only have antelope buck tags with around a thousand tags for the whole state. there are no doe tags to bring the odds up for the guys with less bonus points. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
firstcoueswas80 Report post Posted July 31, 2008 IMO, I put in for the hunts I want and dont really pay too much attention to the bogus point system... hence the name. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HEADACHE Report post Posted July 31, 2008 I got Archery bull elk tag with 7 points once and then this year had five bonus points=shmonus points Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stanley Report post Posted July 31, 2008 I agree with the bonus/shmonus theory!!! azcouesandelk, the problem with your statement is that this is a 'bonus' point system and not a 'preference' point system. Those with 3-7 bonus points only have a better (slightly) 'chance' at a tag, but not 'preference' for a tag. It's all up to the tag gods...... ;) Everyone should keep in mind that at the same time the bonus point system is giving us 'un-lucky' hunters an additional chance at a tag next year, it is also giving EVERY OTHER un-lucky hunter a chance also! At the same time it is giving you an additional chance, it is diluting the value of that chance by giving all other un-successful hunters an additional chance to. Get it??? Kind of confusing, but it's really just simple statistics.... Don't get me wrong; I don't necessarily have a problem with our system. I just feel like folks put too much faith in it. It really doesn't matter too much until you get in the elite '10%' group (If that even still exists.... I think it does....). Good luck to everyone in trying to make sense of it all!!! S. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gauchoand Report post Posted August 18, 2008 All I want to know is who the heck has 19 bonus points? That guy has the worst draw luck of any one I know to not get drawn for 20 years or do after 15 points they throw in a couple extra loyalty points for good measure thats incredible to me I guess I shouldn't get drawn for another fifteen years at that rate. Maybe I should take up another sport like swimming while I'm waiting.... watch out Micheal Phelps here I come. Out of curiosty anyone out there have that many points or anywhere above 12 for that matter? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PSEHunter Report post Posted August 18, 2008 All I want to know is who the heck has 19 bonus points? That guy has the worst draw luck of any one I know to not get drawn for 20 years or do after 15 points they throw in a couple extra loyalty points for good measure thats incredible to me I guess I shouldn't get drawn for another fifteen years at that rate. Maybe I should take up another sport like swimming while I'm waiting.... watch out Micheal Phelps here I come. Out of curiosty anyone out there have that many points or anywhere above 12 for that matter? I would think that since it shows he would have a 100% success rate that the individual was accumulating points by applying for points only. Maybe he is saving up for a guided hunt and needs 19 or so years to do it? Who knows...would suck to be that guy or it might be good as he can get any hunt he wants. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Red Rabbit Report post Posted August 18, 2008 Gauchoand, That guy with 19 BP is probably waiting for an early rifle bull elk tag in unit 9. Last year there were 5971 people that applied first or second choice for those 25 tags for unit 9 early rifle bull. The odds are not good for almost all of those applicants. I had 18 BP when I finally drew an antelope tag this year. There were likely 90 people with 18 or 19 BP hoping for one of the 10 permits in the 20% group for unit 10 antelope this year. Having top BP is not a guaranteed draw for species in high demand like sheep and antelope. Doug~RR Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
