Draw odds

[trphyhntr]

id rather just find someone else to hunt with on their tag than use my points for a poverty elk hunt. 

[NOTAGS]

Please sir, can you spare an elk tag?

 

 

[5guyshunting]

2 hours ago, trphyhntr said:

id rather just find someone else to hunt with on their tag then use my points for a poverty elk hunt. 

That's what i do and I thoroughly enjoy the hunts.

[PRDATR]

On 12/29/2019 at 6:28 PM, 654321 said:

Yes, the AZGFD publishes 2 reports the bonus pass and the 1-2 pass, for example 8 resident points for archery elk in unit 1 last year didn't even make the bonus pass.  I believe each applicant is only entered into the drawing 1 time. For example if you had 3 points going into the draw you would actually be assigned 4 random numbers and the lowest of the 4 would be then assigned to your application and entered into the draw. 

This is the way I have understood it also. Please correct me if I'm wrong. I've only ever put in for Bull hunts over the years or just a BP if I knew I would be able to hunt that year. I'm up to 9 going into the next draw.

[yotebuster]

3 minutes ago, PRDATR said:

This is the way I have understood it also. Please correct me if I'm wrong. I've only ever put in for Bull hunts over the years or just a BP if I knew I would be able to hunt that year. I'm up to 9 going into the next draw.

Sort of.  The random numbers ARE the draw.  So it’s not that every applicant gets one number that is entered, if you have 9 points you have 9 chances to get a low number.  If you get number 13 for your lowest and there’s 10 unit 1 early rifle bull tags, and numbers 1-10 all happen to put that, you don’t get it.  If numbers 1-10 all had different tags for first choice, then you get tag number 1 in that hunt.  You could have a limited op easy draw tag for first choice, have a super low number that would’ve gotten you an early rifle tag in another unit, but if a bunch of people also put that same tag and had lower numbers you could get turned down (not factoring in bonus pass of course). 

[654321]

6 minutes ago, yotebuster said:

Sort of.  The random numbers ARE the draw.  So it’s not that every applicant gets one number that is entered, if you have 9 points you have 9 chances to get a low number.  If you get number 13 for your lowest and there’s 10 unit 1 early rifle bull tags, and numbers 1-10 all happen to put that, you don’t get it.  If numbers 1-10 all had different tags for first choice, then you get tag number 1 in that hunt.  You could have a limited op easy draw tag for first choice, have a super low number that would’ve gotten you an early rifle tag in another unit, but if a bunch of people also put that same tag and had lower numbers you could get turned down (not factoring in bonus pass of course). 

You forgot #11&12, they may have had unit 1 as a second choice and they would get the tag before your #13

[yotebuster]

2 minutes ago, 654321 said:

You forgot #11&12, they may have had unit 1 as a second choice and they would get the tag before your #13

Very true.  

[654321]

21 minutes ago, PRDATR said:

This is the way I have understood it also. Please correct me if I'm wrong. I've only ever put in for Bull hunts over the years or just a BP if I knew I would be able to hunt that year. I'm up to 9 going into the next draw.

Here's a quick example and if you are even a little experienced with the draw you already know this, but lets say everything stays the same. Lets say you want to go archery early unit 1 first choice and late rifle unit 1 second choice.  With 9 points there is a chance you will get the late rifle hunt without ever even having a chance at the early archery. The reason being 9 points last year wasn't enough for the bonus pass in archery but it was enough for the late hunt.   

[trphyhntr]

1 hour ago, 654321 said:

Here's a quick example and if you are even a little experienced with the draw you already know this, but lets say everything stays the same. Lets say you want to go archery early unit 1 first choice and late rifle unit 1 second choice.  With 9 points there is a chance you will get the late rifle hunt without ever even having a chance at the early archery. The reason being 9 points last year wasn't enough for the bonus pass in archery but it was enough for the late hunt.   

what are the odds for unit 1 late rifle with 8 points do you know? 

[dustin25]

Looks like 16%

[ThomC]

The odds are it will snow.

[AZBIG10]

What are the odds of getting a 10 day forecast for your hunt 6 months in advance? Looking for a percentage here not some meme pic from trophyhntr. Unless it adds value to this convo 

[AZBIG10]

Jk 11 pts for 3 c early archery bull resident.

[654321]

1 hour ago, trphyhntr said:

what are the odds for unit 1 late rifle with 8 points do you know? 

Last year there were 73 first choice applicants and 74 second choice for a total of 147 and out of those 147 15 tags were drawn for  10% odds.  This year there are 75 less tags.

[biglakejake]

10 BP and very little left in the tank for me.  figuring 1) 3b early ML bull  2) 3b early archery bull(crossbow).  the archery tag seems like a little better than 50% give or take from 2019 season.

so unless i am a mile off on odds the app will go in-can you imagine wasting 10 BPs?  i can always donate a tag if necessary.  i've hunted the rut a lot as help but on my own tag?  like 2002-could be fun.

lee