Draw odds

[Outdoor Writer]

7 hours ago, Flatlander said:

Getting 4 random numbers is the same thing as getting your name in the hat 4 times. 

In a way, yes; in a way, no. If there are 100 hunters after 20 tags, there will still be 100 hunters after 20 tags once all the numbers are assigned. All the random numbers do is put all the hunters in line by the order of the lowest to highest.  Probably why AGFD figures the final odds the way it does. 

[Flatlander]

3 hours ago, Outdoor Writer said:

In a way, yes; in a way, no. If there are 100 hunters after 20 tags, there will still be 100 hunters after 20 tags once all the numbers are assigned. All the random numbers do is put all the hunters in line by the order of the lowest to highest.  Probably why AGFD figures the final odds the way it does. 

If you get 4 chances to get a low random number and thus a better position in line, how is that statistically any different than having your name in the hat 4x for random selection (not being argumentative here, if there is a mathematical difference I would like to know)?

I have always believed the reason AZGFD publishes the draw odds the way they do is because it is impossible to derive truly accurate odds from their raw data. Because they don’t typically publish resident vs NR application info, nor is there anyway to extrapolate the exact number of 2nd choice applicants who drew their 1st choice and are not considered for the remaining passes, that they just took a generic high level look at overall applicants vs overall available tags. However, correcting for bonus pass allocation is a simple calculation that provides a much closer projection to actual availability. The time and energy required to dial in from there is cumbersome and provides limited value as the percentages don’t change drastically. 

Anyway, this has all become very detailed and probably confusing to the OP. Best advice I have is sign up for toprut, hunter’s trailhead or gohunt.

[trphyhntr]

On 12/28/2019 at 11:35 PM, Explorer said:

Only 20 percent of tags apply to max bonus point holders.  Leaving 80 percent of the tags to random draw. I play the 80 percent. When I win I thank the hunt gods. When I lose I still thank the hunt gods. I have meat in the freezer and worn out camo. Some guys have camo that still smells new and eat chicken nuggets and think they are bad a$$ when they finally post a pic of a 350 plus bull.  Many poeple have forgotten the meaning of hunting.  

uhhh...ok. 

[Outdoor Writer]

35 minutes ago, Flatlander said:

If you get 4 chances to get a low random number and thus a better position in line, how is that statistically any different than having your name in the hat 4x for random selection (not being argumentative here, if there is a mathematical difference I would like to know)?

 

No need to tell me the argumentative part. I know you better than that. 👍

I'm not saying having 4 Bps is bad. What I'm saying is trying to calculate the odds can't be done accurately.

And yeah, it would be cumbersome. So bear with me here and then you can tell me where I've gone astray. 

For the non-BP pass, in order to figure any odds using the BPs that will produce any kind of accurate statistical data to know where someone goes in the line seems near impossible unless you know all these things:

1. The number of digits used in each random number such as 0000, 00000, 000000, etc. Knowing that, you can calculate the total number of possible random numbers that are generated each time. Think state lottery here where the odds of winning are always the same based on the combinations and not the number of ticket sold. 

2. The number of NR hunters, both 1st and 2nd choice, and the number of BPs (including the app) each one has. 

3. Same as 2 for AZ hunters.

4. The TOTAL of all the BPs for every hunter combined.  

With all of the above some sophisticated software would be needed to calculate the true odds using BPs as the basis. 

And then...if it's all based on last year's draw, it won't be near accurate because many of the stats will be different. Those that were drawn are gone, others apply elsewhere and new aps get into this year. 

Lastly, as we both know, the odds in the 2nd pass are often meaningless. That's why someone with one BP gets a permit and someone with 10 BPs  doesn't. IOW, it's always a crapshoot. 🤣

[azelkhunter2]

I am well aware of how the draw works. And I am signed up for toprut I was having issues signing in and my son asked a question about points and those units. ( he will be on the same app as his sister this yr and it will break down so they both have 8 points. She is starting her masters program in September and won’t be hunting for a few yrs because of school )

[azelkhunter2]

And to the gentleman who said don’t worry about...points / draw odds ect just hunt....my son is 22 since his 10th birthday he has had two 23 late rifle bull hunts, one 23 North September archery bull tag, one 23 south archery bull tag and one 3a/ 3c September archery bull tag.....we spend about 200 days a yr in the field all over the western states so I am very picky about what hunts we put in for in Az. 

[yotebuster]

25 minutes ago, azelkhunter2 said:

And to the gentleman who said don’t worry about...points / draw odds ect just hunt....my son is 22 since his 10th birthday he has had two 23 late rifle bull hunts, one 23 North September archery bull tag, one 23 south archery bull tag and one 3a/ 3c September archery bull tag.....we spend about 200 days a yr in the field all over the western states so I am very picky about what hunts we put in for in Az. 

Good lord!!  That kid has already truly drawn a lifetime of awesome tags!!  Let’s see some pics!  I’m certain he didn’t draw that many 23 tags without slamming at least one or two toads?!?  

[rossislider]

38 minutes ago, azelkhunter2 said:

And to the gentleman who said don’t worry about...points / draw odds ect just hunt....my son is 22 since his 10th birthday he has had two 23 late rifle bull hunts, one 23 North September archery bull tag, one 23 south archery bull tag and one 3a/ 3c September archery bull tag.....we spend about 200 days a yr in the field all over the western states so I am very picky about what hunts we put in for in Az. 

Dave - That is awesome luck! Your son and my son should start a club for people with crazy good draw luck. But after my own luck this season, I can't complain.

All - The AZGFD systems works well, maybe not perfect, but better than most. I have drawn most of my best tags through the luck of the draw, and a few through max points. Andrew did a great job of explaining the process, it can be a bit confusing, but it is worth the small investment in time to learn the draw process. Learn it and learn how to make it work for you, and you will should find yourself in the field hunting every year.

[trphyhntr]

53 minutes ago, azelkhunter2 said:

my son is 22 since his 10th birthday he has had two 23 late rifle bull hunts, one 23 North September archery bull tag, one 23 south archery bull tag and one 3a/ 3c September archery bull tag

 

[azelkhunter2]

Oh and he drew unit 10 rifle antelope this yr with 5 points 

[trphyhntr]

im hoping for my 4th elk tag in as many decades. 

[Explorer]

3 hours ago, trphyhntr said:

uhhh...ok. 

Dont win if you dont play trophyhooker!  9 tags in ten years. My way works for me.

[rossislider]

On 12/28/2019 at 11:13 PM, Explorer said:

Bonus points only apply to 20 percent of the tags. I drew a rut tag in a bottom of the barrel unit with 3 points.  Have drawn 9 out of 10 years on cow tags. Dont worry about odds just put in and hunt.

Do you really not think BPs apply to the random draws rounds? 

[wildwoody]

Cow tags are a little different when it comes to odds.. I would take 1 early 23n tags over 20cow tags.. Just me

[jim]

I don't look at the draw odds at all. I put in for where I want to hunt and pray I get  a tag. If I don't either family or a friend will draw something and I will be hunting. There are also so many other things to hunt in this state that finding something to chase is not all that hard. We counted it up yesterday and I have been on a hunt every weekend since august, except 4 weekends. That's 8 deer tags, 4 different hunts. One antelope hunt and 2 elk tags on 2 different hunts.