Draw odds

[NOTAGS]

2 hours ago, 654321 said:

The AZGFD has them for free.  I believe there are 50 fewer archery bull tags this year so that will change the odds a little

their info is based upon total applicants, not necessarily individual application bonus points.

[maximus]

4 hours ago, dustin25 said:

Where are you guys finding this

i looked on toprut

[Explorer]

Bonus points only apply to 20 percent of the tags. I drew a rut tag in a bottom of the barrel unit with 3 points.  Have drawn 9 out of 10 years on cow tags. Dont worry about odds just put in and hunt.

[Flatlander]

6 minutes ago, Explorer said:

Bonus points only apply to 20 percent of the tags. I drew a rut tag in a bottom of the barrel unit with 3 points.  Have drawn 9 out of 10 years on cow tags. Dont worry about odds just put in and hunt.

Bonus points apply to all applications. You know this. 

[Explorer]

Just now, Flatlander said:

Bonus points apply to all applications. You know this. 

Can't win if you dont play. Things get tougher every year. Some guys want a one hit wonder and some want to just spend time in the field.  Fun fact is that I killed my last elk within a mile of where you killed your antelope. 

[Explorer]

Only 20 percent of tags apply to max bonus point holders.  Leaving 80 percent of the tags to random draw. I play the 80 percent. When I win I thank the hunt gods. When I lose I still thank the hunt gods. I have meat in the freezer and worn out camo. Some guys have camo that still smells new and eat chicken nuggets and think they are bad a$$ when they finally post a pic of a 350 plus bull.  Many poeple have forgotten the meaning of hunting.  

[knothead]

50 minutes ago, Explorer said:

Only 20 percent of tags apply to max bonus point holders.  Leaving 80 percent of the tags to random draw. I play the 80 percent. When I win I thank the hunt gods. When I lose I still thank the hunt gods. I have meat in the freezer and worn out camo. Some guys have camo that still smells new and eat chicken nuggets and think they are bad a$$ when they finally post a pic of a 350 plus bull.  Many poeple have forgotten the meaning of hunting.  

I may not necessarily agree with you but I like your attitude.

[654321]

10 hours ago, NOTAGS said:

their info is based upon total applicants, not necessarily individual application bonus points.

Pretty simple, if your putting in by yourself match your points to the report, if putting in with a group add up groups points average them and match to report.

[Flatlander]

4 hours ago, 654321 said:

Pretty simple, if your putting in by yourself match your points to the report, if putting in with a group add up groups points average them and match to report.

What NOTAGS is trying to point out is that the Game and Fish data is based on the total number of applicants (first and second choice) divided by the total number of tags.

However this is not in line with the way the tags are allocated. First 20% of the tags are assigned to the applications with the highest bonus points. So if there are 100 permits for a hunt, then 20 are allocated this way leaving 80 for the rest of the applicants to draw.

Those 80 tags are then drawn at random. Except, each application is entered into the drawing x the number of bonus points for that applicant. For instance, someone with three bonus points will have their application entered into drawing 3 additional times, the application plus once more for each bonus point for a total of 4 chances. So even in the random draw, bonus points come into play.

For these two reasons the draw odds listed in the regs are not the most accurate available. However, they do offer a fair indication of overall application interest and patterns. 

[wildwoody]

^ He know's his chit..

[Explorer]

 Your still only fighting for first and second choice hunts. Two draw rounds max and you either get a tag or don't get a tag.

[Northern Pintail]

4 hours ago, Flatlander said:

What NOTAGS is trying to point out is that the Game and Fish data is based on the total number of applicants (first and second choice) divided by the total number of tags.

However this is not in line with the way the tags are allocated. First 20% of the tags are assigned to the applications with the highest bonus points. So if there are 100 permits for a hunt, then 20 are allocated this way leaving 80 for the rest of the applicants to draw.

Those 80 tags are then drawn at random. Except, each application is entered into the drawing x the number of bonus points for that applicant. For instance, someone with three bonus points will have their application entered into drawing 3 additional times, the application plus once more for each bonus point for a total of 4 chances. So even in the random draw, bonus points come into play.

For these two reasons the draw odds listed in the regs are not the most accurate available. However, they do offer a fair indication of overall application interest and patterns. 

This is correct but what I think a previous post was trying to say when they said they are on the gf website they were referring to the actual draw reports.   Not the success rate that GF gives that is incorrect.   You have to do the math your self but the info is on their website 

[654321]

6 hours ago, Flatlander said:

What NOTAGS is trying to point out is that the Game and Fish data is based on the total number of applicants (first and second choice) divided by the total number of tags.

However this is not in line with the way the tags are allocated. First 20% of the tags are assigned to the applications with the highest bonus points. So if there are 100 permits for a hunt, then 20 are allocated this way leaving 80 for the rest of the applicants to draw.

Those 80 tags are then drawn at random. Except, each application is entered into the drawing x the number of bonus points for that applicant. For instance, someone with three bonus points will have their application entered into drawing 3 additional times, the application plus once more for each bonus point for a total of 4 chances. So even in the random draw, bonus points come into play.

For these two reasons the draw odds listed in the regs are not the most accurate available. However, they do offer a fair indication of overall application interest and patterns. 

Yes, the AZGFD publishes 2 reports the bonus pass and the 1-2 pass, for example 8 resident points for archery elk in unit 1 last year didn't even make the bonus pass.  I believe each applicant is only entered into the drawing 1 time. For example if you had 3 points going into the draw you would actually be assigned 4 random numbers and the lowest of the 4 would be then assigned to your application and entered into the draw. 

[azbirdhunter88]

Just get the 12b any elk tag guys 

[Flatlander]

3 hours ago, 654321 said:

Yes, the AZGFD publishes 2 reports the bonus pass and the 1-2 pass, for example 8 resident points for archery elk in unit 1 last year didn't even make the bonus pass.  I believe each applicant is only entered into the drawing 1 time. For example if you had 3 points going into the draw you would actually be assigned 4 random numbers and the lowest of the 4 would be then assigned to your application and entered into the draw. 

Getting 4 random numbers is the same thing as getting your name in the hat 4 times.