Unit 33 Hunt pressure

[AZP&Y]

Jim,

 

Outstanding review of information. I appreciate your time and when I met you at Bass Pro for the deer seminar , I could see the passion in your face. Great to meet you in person and get a sense of what makes you tick... After reading your book a couple of times, I can't but help search for more information regarding deer (particularly coues).

 

AzP&Y

[SunDevil]

Thanks Jim - it has been a while since I looked at this stuff but if I recall correctly the doe:fawn ratio jumped up in 2003 and it was followed by a jump in hunter success in 2004. this is supported by the 1.5 year old bucks being harvest in '02 - '04 as 11% increasing to 17% in '05 - '07.

[Schmitty]

Jim,

 

Thanks for the info. My only thought is in regards to the "1000's who had to sit at home because they weren't drawn!" There were more than a few leftover tags for many of the southern unit early hunts last year. If these folks wanted to hunt, they could have done a bit of research and applied for these hunts with their 3rd-5th choices and could have sweat up a storm in the hills along with the rest of us hunting last October. Personally I feel some of the December cutbacks were a bit much when there was already plenty of "opportunity" to get drawn (90% plus draw odds) for many of the Southern Units.

 

Once again, thank you again for taking the time to post up all of your research and information, ift was very informative. BTW, how did your muley hunt go down in "C" this past fall.

 

take care,

 

Schmitty

[gamespec]

I have heard this argument before, but it doesn't make me feel any better. Just because we have some left over tags that someone could have claimed if they did their homework doesn't mean that anyone who wants to hunt can do so just by putting in for those units. Tens of thousands of deer applicants can't all have those few leftover tags. Either way you slice it, we have thousands of people who want to deer hunt bad enough to navigate our complicated applications system (on paper with money up front!) and still can not deer hunt.

 

Levi shot an absolutley beautiful WT buck in 36A this year (My dad and I were skunked). It only had 2 points but that didn't take away from the beauty. He was proud to have shot it with no help from me . I had only a few hours sleep the night before and was snoring next to him on the hillside (my tripod could no longer hold my full weight so I laid down). I guess his training phase is over! He shot a javelina, WT, and elk last year -- he has shared the meat with the village elders so I don't feel bad. I'll be in Iowa until Monday.

 

JIM

[Outdoor Writer]

Jim,

 

Thanks for the info. My only thought is in regards to the "1000's who had to sit at home because they weren't drawn!" There were more than a few leftover tags for many of the southern unit early hunts last year. If these folks wanted to hunt, they could have done a bit of research and applied for these hunts with their 3rd-5th choices and could have sweat up a storm in the hills along with the rest of us hunting last October. Personally I feel some of the December cutbacks were a bit much when there was already plenty of "opportunity" to get drawn (90% plus draw odds) for many of the Southern Units.

 

Once again, thank you again for taking the time to post up all of your research and information, ift was very informative. BTW, how did your muley hunt go down in "C" this past fall.

 

take care,

 

Schmitty

 

In 2007, there were 72,651 1st choice applicants for all units and hunts, which includes general firearms, muzzleloader and juniors. The total # of permits issued for all seasons, ALL choices and over-the-counter sales was 42,543. That translates to 30,108 folks -- as in "1,000s" -- who didn't get a deer permit in 2007. For the Junior's only general and muzzleloader seasons, there were 1,769 permits issued to 2,520 1st choice applicants, meaning 751 junior hunters didn't get a permit thru the normal draw.

 

How can this be when several units have 100% draw odds for the early seasons? Simple. Because many hunters PREFER applying for the best hunts (read that as the Strip, Kaibab or Dec. WT seasons) for the 1st two choices and the 2nd best ones for the other three. It's the nature of the beast, so to speak. Of course, if they HAD to apply for those earlier, lower-success seasons, then they would no longer be 100% draws.

 

BUT, when push comes to shove, many of them would settle for ANY permit, and that's why the 1st-come leftovers usually don't last more than a couple hours. I'm only speculating here, and maybe Jim knows the actual numbers, but I would guess many, many hunters who sent in for the 1st-come leftovers wound up getting a refund.

 

Granted, some applicants list certain hunts only as 1st & 2nd choices and then leave the rest blank, preferring to not hunt unless they drew the hunt they wanted. But I'm guessing that was a minority of the 30K who didn't draw. I count myself among this group. But even if we say it's 15,000, that still leaves another 15,000 -- as in "1,000s" -- who wanted to hunt deer but couldn't.

 

Basically, what it comes down to is the FINAL number of permits left after the draw and the 1st-come phase; I believe that is usually 0, which excludes 1000s from deer hunting unless they use a bow. -TONY

[Red Rabbit]

What would be the number of hunters that applied for a coues hunt (1st and/or 5th choice) vs the number of coues permits? This would indicate the real demand for coues permits. I suspect that including the number of hunters that only put in for the oversubscribed mule deer permits are skewing the numbers. How many hunters only apply for mule deer?

 

We have been talking about changes to the WT hunt structures, but what has changed to the MD hunts to offer more opportunity? I have not looked at the information to answer this.

 

Doug~RR

[Hooked_on_Coues]

I was curious as to how PP affected the stats in the 100% units. It isn't broken down.

 

So, as a non resident with 2 PP every year, could I percievably draw an early hunt in the southern units every year?

 

I have given up hope on the Dec late hunts because I just want to go!

 

Coues additction is the best and worst of it......

[Red Rabbit]

The draw odds listed in the regs is based on % of the first choice applicants being drawn. Since they look at both your 1st and 2nd choices when your random number is gotten to, a 100% draw for your second choice unit would also mean you should almost always draw your second choice if your first choice was already filled. If it was a 100% draw, the number of BP would be irrelevant, as those with 0 bp or max bp would all be drawn.

 

In 35B as an example, the chance of drawing a December permit with 2 BP was 15%. The number of Dec tags in 35B is being reduced from 50 to 40 this year. It would not hurt to put in for a Dec hunt first choice (and hope to be lucky) and choose a October hunt second choice for more certainty.

 

You can purchase the bonus point analysis from G&F which breaks down the draw odds by bonus point for each hunt. However, it does not separate first and second choices, not resident from nonresident. Perhaps they will make this information available online next year.

[BELLOTABUCKS]

my family is from san manuel, about an hour in four wheel drive from the heart of the best 33 has to offer and have taken bucks from there for 25-30 years. i my self have hunted it religiously for 15 years. sad to say we used to be one of three or four pickups on the hill and now guide camps dot the road all the way up. public land and public access and all but our backyard became lalapalooza so now we apply for other units more so than in the past. your almost better off getting dropped off at the san pedro lookout on mt lemmon and hunting down. for those who say there are no deer in 33 next time get out of the truck as you drive through. at the same time don't be surprised to either hear viet nam up the canyons or to have your buck shot out from under your crosshairs. bums me out. for all the hardcore 32 hunters out there, i hear ya. passed on many bucks lookin for the one partly because i had a freezer full of elk meat still or i might of dropped one of the 85-90 inch bucks i threw back. fall app goes like this 32 nov, 33nov, 31nov, 32oct, 33oct.

[25-06]

Aint any bucks left in 33

[catfish]

That is such a bummer......I would bet you could easily triple that number, nobody hunts alone. Plus everyone and there rock crawlers out there......way too many people for me...

IU agree there are still afew spots where you can find peace and quiet

[cpugsie]

Jim,

I give you a standing ovation for getting on this forum and educating us. It's easy to get on the band wagon of doom when you don't have all the facts. Your information was very enlightening. A sincere THANK YOU!!!

 

Carl