Spring Snow Melt and Global Warming

[SilentButDeadly]

Okay, there has been (and still is) a few people going back (and forth) on whether or not Global Warming is real, yada, yada, yada.

 

The big snowfalls that happened across North America this winter represent an interesting experiment to see what will happen this spring.

 

 

This is sort of a big deal, because the faster the snow melts the less water will be available in rivers and lakes this summer before the monsoons set up.

http://www.gjsentinel.com/news/content/new...c=7&cxcat=7

 

The National Weather Service has some really cool web pages for both El Nino and Snow:

 

http://www.nohrsc.nws.gov/nsa/

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/anal...y/ensodisc.html

 

Currently the Climate Prediction Center is calling for a weak La Nina this spring; that means reduced precipitation (from observed average) for the Southwest (too bad for the antlers that are growing on my Unit 8 bull ) until June or July.

 

Anyway, lets see what people think - and wait another couple weeks and see what happens...

 

Tyson

[SilentButDeadly]

The Arizona Daily Star has a massive 3 day article about Global Warming that started this morning,

 

http://azstarnet.com/special/globalwarming

 

My father, Thomas Swetnam, is quoted in FOREST IN FLAMES section of the article.

 

Tyson

[.270]

so, did global warming cause all the record snowfall? and if it melts too fast it will do what? it's the weather dude. it snows in the winter. it warms up in the spring and melts the snow. the turns into water and runs downhill. did it last year too. and i think about every year for quite awhile. from what i saw travelling around the country a month ago, most of the snow was pretty much gone then. SD had had some major snow accumulation during the winter, but there wasn't much more than patches a month ago. but the lakes were still frozen and folks were still ice fishin'. also, "monsoon" is the high wind that comes from the ocean that precedes the rainy season off southeast asia. it ain't go nothin' to do with the U.S. Lark.

[Buckhorn]

I was wondering how long it was going to take before someone blamed the forest fires on Global Warming and not the enviromentalist that stopped the logging, removed cattle and controlled the fires to the point that the under brush is so high that the only way that you can clean it up is to have a fire big enough that we as human can't control it.

 

Buckhorn

[SilentButDeadly]

so, did global warming cause all the record snowfall? and if it melts too fast it will do what? it's the weather dude. it snows in the winter. it warms up in the spring and melts the snow. the turns into water and runs downhill. did it last year too. and i think about every year for quite awhile. from what i saw travelling around the country a month ago, most of the snow was pretty much gone then. SD had had some major snow accumulation during the winter, but there wasn't much more than patches a month ago. but the lakes were still frozen and folks were still ice fishin'. also, "monsoon" is the high wind that comes from the ocean that precedes the rainy season off southeast asia. it ain't go nothin' to do with the U.S. Lark.

 

The snowfall this winter was due to the way that the storm tracks set up, as you can see from this link: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_.../nawinter.shtml

During La Nina years (which we are experiencing a weak La Nina right now), the jet drops into the northern half of NA; interestingly enough, you also see how the southwest is drier - as the figure I showed in the first post above indicates Arizona is actually below average snow pack for this time of year - agreeing with this trend.

 

As for the snow melting; historically it would take until july or august for the snows to melt off the high mountains of the West, this water slowly fed lakes - which are then tapped for irrigation. If the snow falls as rain during the winter, or melts too quickly in the spring you will have flooding at the wrong times of year, leading to problems later in the arid for-summer when you run out of water to drink or irrigate fields with.

 

Come on, are you really going to hammer me for using the word 'monsoon'? Thats pretty weak. Everyone on this forum calls the rain we get in Arizona during the summer the monsoon; and NOAA calls it the North American Monsoon (NAM).

 

As far as this winter's record snow being a + or - sign of Global Warming, they're not; but the rate at which it melts for better or worse will be used by people pushing this as another nail in the coffin.

[SilentButDeadly]

I was wondering how long it was going to take before someone blamed the forest fires on Global Warming and not the enviromentalist that stopped the logging, removed cattle and controlled the fires to the point that the under brush is so high that the only way that you can clean it up is to have a fire big enough that we as human can't control it.

 

Buckhorn

 

The paper my father is talking about does not 'blame' anything. What he is talking about is the fact that fires are starting sooner in the spring, and burning longer into the fall than they ever have - even in places where we haven't affected the fire regime. Also, forests that historically have not burned in 200-500 years are burning - Canada is set to become a CO2 source instead of sink for the first time because of all the trees it is burning every summer now. http://meteora.ucsd.edu/cap/pdffiles/warmi...ire_science.pdf

 

This stuff isn't unsupported - there are hundreds (and thousands) of other researchers who have come to the same conclusions - everything from birds migrating and laying eggs at different times, tropical species moving north, plants blooming sooner, etc, etc.

[Buckhorn]

This stuff isn't unsupported - there are hundreds (and thousands) of other researchers who have come to the same conclusions - everything from birds migrating and laying eggs at different times, tropical species moving north, plants blooming sooner, etc, etc.

 

The problem that i have with this; is that we have the same amount of people that have come to the conclusion that Global Warming isn't happening. And now that it has gone political the chances that the truth will ever come-out is slim to none. And I for one am not ready to support something that the Sierra Club is backing. http://www.americanpolicy.org/un/thereisnoglobal.htm

[.270]

aaayyyeah, i remember we had a year like this back in '01. i 'member another'n in like the 60's. aaaayeah, i do. maybe if they didn't make all these reports they wouldn't hafta kill so many trees and that'd cure global warming. i'm gonna remain a skeptic. an informed one, but a skeptic. too many holes and loose ends in every air tight, iron clad, slammed shut global warming theory. it's real easy to argue any point, if you only use the evidence that is convenient to your slant. here we have a winter that paralyzed parts of the US for weeks at a time, in every month of the winter, with record snow and cold. we had a real good winter in the central desert of this state. more greenery and wildflowers than i've seen since i think, 96 or 97. whatever the first year i moved down here was. but it's all global warming. how can warming produce record snow? is it just me or don't if hafta git cold to snow? i lived in the mountains for most of my life, and i never remember it snowin' on a warm day. not one time. a couple winters ago al gore and his buddys had heck having their global warming lie fest in nyc, because is snowed so much that nobody could get to the convention center. you can't legislate the weather. that's why we're arguing this on the "political" section on this sight. because it's political and not really factual or true science based. and i'll hammer anyone over monsoon. i'm sick of hearing "monsoonal moisture" on the dang news, or any other stinkin' thing with the word monsoon in it. now they wanna call dust storms a haboo or some dang thing. what's wrong with "summer rains" and "dust storm"? why we gotta use some foreign @$$ed dang word for our weather? cuz it sounds cool? once again, al gore=liar. Lark.

[bobbyo]

The problem that i have with this; is that we have the same amount of people that have come to the conclusion that Global Warming isn't happening. And now that it has gone political the chances that the truth will ever come-out is slim to none. And I for one am not ready to support something that the Sierra Club is backing. http://www.americanpolicy.org/un/thereisnoglobal.htm

 

 

What do you mean by people. Scientist don't even question whether there is global warming. The evidence is overwelming. They may argue about effects or causes ect, but they are pretty unanimous on the earth is getting warmer thing. Your arguments against global warming remind of the same one's in the early 70s about tobacco. "There is no evidence that tobacco causes cancer. There is no direct link. I'm not going to believe those pinko commies who make up lies about my Pall Malls." Blah Blah Blah. Man I need a smoke.

Bob

[IHunt2live]

I agree with buckhorn that this topic has gone political and some people and groups that we, outdoorsmen, do not like are pushing the topic pretty hard. I'm affraid some people have drawn their conclusion on the topic just from the fact that these people/groups are pusshing the issue. I for one get a nasty taste in my mouth about this topic when i hear some of these people/groups talking about the issue. I try to ignore all that, look at the facts and come to the conclusion on my own.

Sure theres facts out there supporting both sides of this issue. My dad always said that life teaches us what we already "know". Or in other words we believe what we want to believe.

Now I'm not trying cause an argument just adding my $.02. I hope everyone respect everyone elses opinion here. Thats the great thing about these discussion forums. We can give our ideas and listen to other and learn something.

[SilentButDeadly]

It has been strange to me watching the news coverage of Global Warming develop over the last 10 years.

 

The sensationalism that the media spins onto it makes it seem like Al 'Chicken Little' Gore is out there blathering about how the world is going to end; we have a big drought and then the media pounces and labels everything as being caused by Global Warming.

 

My wife (who works at the Arizona Cancer Center) got a phone call the other day from a reporter asking if Global Warming causes skin cancer!

 

I think it is getting warmer - its there in the thermometer readings. I try and stay skeptical about what is causing the warming - but most of the science I read says it is CO2. I still don't think you can de-tangle all of the factors that go into the planetary system, but you can get a decent picture of what is going on.

 

If I had to rate the threats to the human race in order I'd have to say that climate change is pretty high up on the list, but I'd say it is behind Chicken Littles who can push the big red button and do a whole lot more harm in the short term.

 

I watched a show last night about gorillas in Rwanda - the craziest part was where they talked about how in 1994 the Rwandan Genocide killed 900,000 people in 10 months and refugees were invading the national park to survive - the phone calls that the people who run the park there got were 'How are the gorillas doing?" not "How are the people?" -- People care less about one another and more about charismatic animals.

[Non-Typical Solutions]

This one here is going to show just how ignorant I am.........how did the wolly mammoth get trapped in the deep ice way up North??? And the Iceage man....how did he get trapped up there????

 

Is it possible that there didn't used to be ice up there once upon a time???????

 

So, my guess is........ if we were to reverse the situation and all of the sudden Ice was starting to appear way up north where people were living and it was scaring the crap out of everybody because pollution and the green thing was causing everything to freeze up and wolly mammoths were dieing because of the global cooling thing..........wait.......did we have global cooling way back then?? And what caused it????

 

I hate to tell you boys this but there is alot of crap that happened to this earth long before we every invented fire and the round wheel.....say what you want but we have very little control over big picture......nature will take its course, maybe with all the gloom and doom we better pay a little more attention to the good word........and if you think that Rodeo/Chediski fire was hot....wait for the big one...

 

 

Sorry boys....been lacquering this morning and forgot to wear a mask.......

[.270]

we are a little warmer than we were awhile back. but man has nothing to do with it. (if he does, it's negligible) polar caps have been melting at the same rate for at least 150 years. as long as we have been tracking it. the sun is hotter than we've ever been able to measure it, right now. heck, the polar caps on mars have almost completely vanished in the past few decades. i don't think we had anything to with that. we're just in one of the higher temprature cycles that mother earth has gone in and out of countless times. all the prius', carbon footprint trees, wind generators, solar cells, bicycles, etc. ain't gonna change it. when things go the other way, it'll cool back down. probably a lot too, then folks'll be wanting the good ol' days back. there are a lotta scientists who buy in with gore. i tend to listen to the guys with real experience who say contrary. Lark.

[azpackhorse]

Lark is dead-on here, educate yourself. Be sure and define "scientific proof" and "scientific theory" big difference.

Global warming is a big dollar business............yep BUSINESS. The Earth has indeed been through many cycles, there's "proof" of that.

 

Ever wonder how all them big ol trees got scattered all around Holbrook??? Talked to a guy there once who said they think they got washed there by a BIG flood..........................hmmmmmmmmmmm.

[Buckhorn]

There are a-lot of SCIENTIST that discredit the Global Warming theory. The scary thing that IS going to happen and already has started is the amount of products that we have made overseas because of the green push here in the US.

 

Buckhorn