Non-Typical Solutions Report post Posted July 23, 2019 Come on Flagstaff members......what is that fire really looking like? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IA Born Report post Posted July 23, 2019 Right now its looking pretty calm. Overnight recovery (low temps and high humidity) really helped, too. That can/will change as the day heats up. The fire didn't get rain yesterday, but other parts of town did. The overall increased humidity helped some, though. The burnouts north of town should have solidified that portion of the line and, hopefully, quelled the hysteria that Flagstaff is going to burn. The panic and hysteria from people who don't understand fire/fire management has been the worst, at least for me. I do my best to help them understand the reality of what is/isn't happening/going to happen, though. The fire is mostly pushing northeast, but its on the backside of Elden now. The folks living over off Elden Springs Road are in the greatest danger, especially because there was heavy spotting in that direction, which is the direction the wind was driving the fire. There is a 70% chance of rain today and tomorrow, so that should definitely help, especially if it hits the fire area. The biggest threat is going to be when the rains hit in force in the watershed directly above town. There is already a heavy flood advisory for the area of 4th Street where it buts up against Mt. Elden and to the west. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
1uofacat Report post Posted July 24, 2019 Agree with the above, the crews are here certainly appear to be doing what they can. Burnout operations were canceled Sunday night due to complications, and now I'm guessing it's perhaps 2500 acres. What I was glad to see was the immediate response from the fire management team getting on it right away. That said, it still ballooned from 200 acres to 800 acres in a matter of hours, so props to helping contain it as much as they have. Spotting has been the biggest issue so far that I have heard, but time will tell. Rain today has been more of a light sprinkling so not sure just how much that is helping. at least there is some moisture and that certainly helps. I've heard it said today that this is the most critical fire in the US today due to structures in jeopardy, but that's also from the local newspaper so take that fwiw. Hopefully no additional issues from lightning, which we've had some of out of these "storms". Almost threatening like monsoons, but that hasn't really happened yet. The incident team was just changed to a Lev1 team I believe (replacing the team what was handling the Newman Park Fire which burned the west side of Upper Lake Mary), but updates from them hasn't been all that great to be honest. We'll see if this "rain" helps much in the next few days. BTW, if I had a tag and planned on hunting in the Dry Lake area, I'd be looking elsewhere... 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IA Born Report post Posted July 24, 2019 My boss is working closely with the new IMT, and was heavily involved with the original Type 3 IMT. That's a local crew and they were doing a solid job. As of this afternoon, the drastically increased humidity kept the fire in check today. It's still barely above 1000 acres. Inciweb listed it as 1800 acres this morning, but that was an error and miscommunication between the two IMTs. There is still 0% containment because of not being able to burn out last night, despite the evacs. It is, in fact, the highest priority fire in the US right now. It's not spreading west, which is surprising, but nobody is arguing it, either! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AZ8 Report post Posted July 24, 2019 The community meeting this evening said it's now 10% contained. Also, they were pretty positive with the rain and increased humidity, that they feel this fire won't grow much more than what it already is. They stated this a couple times tonight, so they're confident in the fire's behavior. The biggest threat now, according to them, is flash flooding. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IA Born Report post Posted July 24, 2019 1 hour ago, AZ8 said: The community meeting this evening said it's now 10% contained. Also, they were pretty positive with the rain and increased humidity, that they feel this fire won't grow much more than what it already is. They stated this a couple times tonight, so they're confident in the fire's behavior. The biggest threat now, according to them, is flash flooding. I wasn't at the community meeting, but that sounds about dead-on. Flooding in the 4th street area, near Coconino High School. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Non-Typical Solutions Report post Posted July 24, 2019 Thanks for the info.....good luck to those out there battling...... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
520HUNT Report post Posted July 24, 2019 Better elk habitat on the way... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stanley Report post Posted July 24, 2019 News last night had some pretty cool time-lapsed video of the Museum fire from a distance. It showed plumes of smoke coming-up, then a nice big thunderstorm blowing over the area and GREATLY dowsing the vast majority of the smoke. Looked like mother nature swooped in and swatted it good! Was awesome! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NOTAGS Report post Posted July 24, 2019 I caught the start of this in my review as I was leaving Flag on Sunday. By the time it was out of sight the smoke had increased dramatically. The desert on the way down looks like a problem waiting to happen. Come on rains! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IA Born Report post Posted July 25, 2019 Latest report is still low containment (barely above 10%), but its still sitting at about 1900 acres. Unfortunately, the rains that were supposed to materialize yesterday didn't and the prospects for rain are decreasing through the weekend. The concern for the fire, itself, is not as big as it was a couple of days ago, but this isn't over yet. That big rain that hit Tuesday was golden, though. It really knocked fire behavior back significantly, allowing crews to gain ground. The sandbagging has started in earnest, though. Lessons were learned about post-fire flooding after the Schultz Fire in 2010. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
1uofacat Report post Posted July 25, 2019 I read about the miss-information on the size of the fire and spread. The rain certainly did seem to put much of this fire down, although there likely remains a lot of fuel and it's reportedly not yet near being contained. From what I recall of the 2010 Shultz Fire, the response was inexcusably slow whereas this fire appeared to have an immediate response. The 2010 Shultz Fire was basically observable out my back door and I watched it that Father's Day wondering why nobody seemed to be taking is seriously. I'm sure we've come a long ways since then, including learning from past mistakes (like those made during the Yarnell Fire). It seems however that communication still has a ways to go. It would be "nice" if the incident team would regularly take a moment to update us on exactly where the fire is at on reasonable intervals. I'm sure they're busy doing other things, but come on... please take a moment and post current status. If they feel they are too busy to do this then hire a "laborer" to write it up and take 5 minutes to proofread it before posting it! The communication on this fire is terrible and nowhere near timely. When a fire of this size is costing millions, a $15/hr "kid" to help write up communication is nothing. I'm confident more is wasted on unused food in a day than what this position would likely cost in a week. That said, we all appreciate the efforts of those fighting it! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted July 25, 2019 I am surprised how little smoke there is in town, although as the morning progressed it did start to build a bit more. I am cautiously optimistic about this one. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IA Born Report post Posted July 26, 2019 18 hours ago, Flatlander said: I am surprised how little smoke there is in town, although as the morning progressed it did start to build a bit more. I am cautiously optimistic about this one. The southwest winds have been pushing most of the smoke away from town proper. The Doney Park/Timberline area has been getting hit pretty hard with smoke. It laid down nicely over the northern part of town overnight, last night. There was a cool inversion layer as I was driving to work this morning. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
1uofacat Report post Posted August 1, 2019 I'm sure everyone knows now it's basically over with the monsoons hitting. That said, spend time Saturday filling/tying/carrying sandbags, we estimate about 7,000 were picked up/delivered... Hopefully the rains will come slow and not like is sometimes does (as in early Aug '17 or Oct '18). At least the fire danger is/should be just about over... 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
