Leftover Shrinkage

[Jimmer Negamanee]

My prediction is that the average # of BPs required to draw the more desired rifle tags will go down because knowing that left-over tags are (or very soon will be) a thing of the past, many people will abandon the strategy of stockpiling BPs.  

The choice will no longer between the chance at a “premium” tag and an almost guaranteed leftover but, instead, a choice between the chance at a “premium” tag and not going rifle hunting at all. 

This may be truer for us older folks though.  Now that I’m on the back nine of life, hunting now holds great allure.  Waiting 8 years for a “trophy” hunt means I’m hunting with a body that’s 8 years older too.  Mind you, I’m still in the fight and try to stay fit but, whether we realize it or not, we’re all fighting the indefensible assault of time.  Carpe diem, and all that. Life's short.  Hunt hard.  Hunt now. 

[Tikka]

You can thank social media for this all over the west... Randy Newberg, Hushpuppies & Steve Rinella just to name a few...

[PRDATR]

On 7/9/2019 at 7:38 PM, Jimmer Negamanee said:

My prediction is that the average # of BPs required to draw the more desired rifle tags will go down because knowing that left-over tags are (or very soon will be) a thing of the past, many people will abandon the strategy of stockpiling BPs.  

The choice will no longer between the chance at a “premium” tag and an almost guaranteed leftover but, instead, a choice between the chance at a “premium” tag and not going rifle hunting at all. 

This may be truer for us older folks though.  Now that I’m on the back nine of life, hunting now holds great allure.  Waiting 8 years for a “trophy” hunt means I’m hunting with a body that’s 8 years older too.  Mind you, I’m still in the fight and try to stay fit but, whether we realize it or not, we’re all fighting the indefensible assault of time.  Carpe diem, and all that. Life's short.  Hunt hard.  Hunt now. 

A few will continue to choose a BP as many are also archery hunters and a few of those who aren't will take it up.

[Flatlander]

On 7/9/2019 at 1:27 PM, 654321 said:

2009-48535, 2010-48055, 2011-47875, 2012-46973, 2013-46641, 2014-46634, 2015-45822, 2016-46537, 2017-47147, 2018-48135, 2019-46840

These numbers include- General deer, CHAMP, Muzzy, Archery, Junior general and Junior Muzzy.

The truth hurts. 

[stanley]

As usual, Flatlander chimes-in with solid facts.  G&F has definitely done plenty over the past decade or so with hunt dates, stratification, etc.  But clearly, the overall tag numbers remain relatively flat.

I always find it interesting when folks point to "social media" as one of the culprits (often spinning it in a negative way), literally while posting on a social media site. 😂     In all seriousness though, for sure there is MUCH more propagation of information out there now due to the internet.  Also with electronic application process's, it is of course much easier for folks to apply in multiple states to cast a wider net for tags.  Suppose that's just the reality of the world today and in the future.   Can't stop 'progress'....  🙄

[Tikka]

1 hour ago, stanley said:

As usual, Flatlander chimes-in with solid facts.  G&F has definitely done plenty over the past decade or so with hunt dates, stratification, etc.  But clearly, the overall tag numbers remain relatively flat.

I always find it interesting when folks point to "social media" as one of the culprits (often spinning it in a negative way), literally while posting on a social media site. 😂     In all seriousness though, for sure there is MUCH more propagation of information out there now due to the internet.  Also with electronic application process's, it is of course much easier for folks to apply in multiple states to cast a wider net for tags.  Suppose that's just the reality of the world today and in the future.   Can't stop 'progress'....  🙄

Yes, I did post this on social media... The difference is you and I do not get paid by sponsors for our content we post here... Well at I don't, so therefor you or I do not have exploit any hunting places states or potential sleeper units in order to keep follower's and sponsors happy and liking their content... 

It's a double edged sword... 

[ThomC]

On 7/9/2019 at 3:45 PM, 5guyshunting said:

Here you go.

Its a double edged hammer.

[Coues79]

I thought only 10% could go to non residents anyway? Idk if the out of staters are to blame. 

Itll be interesting to see the point creep for those that cashed in on a wet year, for those that played the game for such an occassion.

Unfortunately, have to play the game differently now for those units that typically held leftover tags. 

Hate to see more regulation but I'd like to see something done to help youth get more opportunities to hunt youth hunts. I've put my boy in for three consecutive years with youth hunts at around 40% odds to draw, first and second choices, followed by traditionally leftover tag units. He hasn't drawn a youth hunt yet, while watching other youth draw it consecutively year after year for the same hunt. This year, unfortunately, those typical leftover tags were not able to be picked up as a 3-5 choice like they generally were, and he got skunked this year..... maybe youth can draw a youth hunt every third year, but still be able to apply for all other hunts. Idk if theres an easy solution, but I think that it could be more equitable for youth. 

[knothead]

Lots of opportunities for youths to hunt in our state already.  Arizona is probably the most generous western state for kids.  There are many other things to hunt that don't require being drawn.

[Coues79]

34 minutes ago, knothead said:

Lots of opportunities for youths to hunt in our state already.  Arizona is probably the most generous western state for kids.  There are many other things to hunt that don't require being drawn.

🤦‍♂️Not a naive Arizonan and never said there wasn't. Youth have a limited time frame to hunt youth hunts. I've applied my son for three years for youth deer hunts, with the "opportunity" hunts as 3rd-5th choices... Not this year unfortunately. These are his first 3 years of being able to hunt big game. He doesn't build points because we look to get the opportunity tags and he has been fortunate to draw those 3-5th choice. To have a youth tag on some of these hunts is a dang good tag to have in the pocket of a youth hunter.  I could go on and on about all the squirrel, rabbit, quail, javelina hunts, fishing opportunities etc etc etc we utilize as an Arizonan.  Big difference between a rabbit and a deer or an elk. If a youth were to draw a youth tag 5/8 years out of the luck of the draw, while another kid has applied for the same hunt but is always willing to have a 3-5 choice with a general hunt and never gets a chance to hunt a youth hunt due to the luck of the draw, I'm sorry, that's not equitable. And no, these aren't your 2% draw odd hunts. 

Like I stated, I'm not for letting youth go without an opportunity to hunt. IMO, youth and new to hunting folks need to be in the field with opportunities to hunt, and yes, to hunt "draw" hunts. AZ has a pretty dang good drawing system, but there are still things that could help be more equitable with our recruitment for those youth and new to the game. 

[oz31p]

32 minutes ago, Coues79 said:

🤦‍♂️Not a naive Arizonan and never said there wasn't. Youth have a limited time frame to hunt youth hunts. I've applied my son for three years for youth deer hunts, with the "opportunity" hunts as 3rd-5th choices... Not this year unfortunately. These are his first 3 years of being able to hunt big game. He doesn't build points because we look to get the opportunity tags and he has been fortunate to draw those 3-5th choice. To have a youth tag on some of these hunts is a dang good tag to have in the pocket of a youth hunter.  I could go on and on about all the squirrel, rabbit, quail, javelina hunts, fishing opportunities etc etc etc we utilize as an Arizonan.  Big difference between a rabbit and a deer or an elk. If a youth were to draw a youth tag 5/8 years out of the luck of the draw, while another kid has applied for the same hunt but is always willing to have a 3-5 choice with a general hunt and never gets a chance to hunt a youth hunt due to the luck of the draw, I'm sorry, that's not equitable. And no, these aren't your 2% draw odd hunts. 

Like I stated, I'm not for letting youth go without an opportunity to hunt. IMO, youth and new to hunting folks need to be in the field with opportunities to hunt, and yes, to hunt "draw" hunts. AZ has a pretty dang good drawing system, but there are still things that could help be more equitable with our recruitment for those youth and new to the game. 

I don’t see the fan the flames emoji but there are more left over youth tags than normal this year

[wish2hunt]

We can all blame Trump for less leftover tags.