Success rates and some loaded questions

[POk3s]

Some of you might remember last year that I decided I was going to go coues deer hunting this year (2019) and was asking for a broad range of help. Well I’ve now dissected every unit up and down, back and forth, side to side and have basically settled on two very different units and very different hunts. The last piece of the puzzle is the success rates for 2018. When do the success rates get published? Is it before the application deadline or am I wasting my time waiting for that? 

 

My other question is do you guys think the late December rifle season has lost its flare in a lot of units? Looking on paper, it appears that the addition of earlier rifle seasons in some units as well as slowly increasing the number of late December rifle tags has hurt the success rates on these hunts. It could just be those hunters drawing them are being real picky and going home empty handed instead of filling their tag on a “lesser buck”??? It’s hard to tell from 1,000+ miles away. 

 

PS I have 6 nonresident points with that magic loyalty tag I had no idea I was getting. It puts me in the game on a lot of late December tags, and I believe 100% for every other unit and season. If anyone wants to PM me and tell me what they’d do I’m all ears. If not, that’s fine too!

[firstcoueswas80]

In my eyes, as long as the December hunt is 2+ weeks, and less than ~150 tags, it will always be the prettiest girl at the bar. Tough to take home, but very enjoyable when you do.

[oz31p]

Posted success rates are worth less. It’s all voluntary reporting. 

[lancetkenyon]

Non-res are capped at a MAX of 10% of tags.  Meaning that 10% does not necessarily always go to non-res applicants.  Not saying you don't have a decent chance, but I wouldn't count your 100% guaranteed chickens until they hatch.  

Good luck in the draw.  

December hunts can be great.  But can be tough like any other hunts.  I had a buddy who drew a Dec tag in the "land of giant Coues bucks" (as he claims) last year.  Bad weather knocked him out of 85% of his hunt.  

[bonecollector]

I never look at the success rates,they are meaningless imo.

[KoosCrazy]

Yes the late December hunts are worth it. With the points you have I would keep going for them, draw odds are moving in your favor.  

 They are not a slam dunk that your going to kill a 100in. deer.  You got realize there has been 1-4 coues hunts before your hunt depending on the unit.  Also hunting pre rut/ rut coues is still tuff, you still have to find them, not as easy as other deer species.  

The success rates are skewed since some trophy hunt and don’t harvest, some don’t report.  I would just look at type of country you want to hunt, deer #s, and units history of quality deer produced, apply, and hope.

[POk3s]

Okay. You guys have made up my mind to apply for only the late December hunts since I’m this close. Probably a 10% type odds for first choice and a 40-50% for second choice. If I don’t draw I’ll go down in January, scout around, and try to send an arrow through one. 

[yotebuster]

56 minutes ago, POk3s said:

Okay. You guys have made up my mind to apply for only the late December hunts since I’m this close. Probably a 10% type odds for first choice and a 40-50% for second choice. If I don’t draw I’ll go down in January, scout around, and try to send an arrow through one. 

Don’t forget that if you are in the max point pool for your second choice you will draw that prior to ever having a chance in the random draw at your first choice.  If I had to guess the 10% NR cap won’t be too critical in a coues hunt but I could be wrong.  

[rossislider]

I also think that hunt success numbers put out by AZGFD are garbage. They not accurate due to voluntary reporting. Also, people use a lot of points to get December tags and often go home empty handed because they expected that hunt to be something it is not. They incorrectly assume that their late December Coues tags are "rut-hunt" tags, and likewise assume that they should expect to see multiple 100+ inch deer on those hunts. They are not rut hunts. At best they are pre-rut, and in a good year, you might see a little rut activity the last few days. The advantage is fewer tag numbers and a longer hunt period.

[bonecollector]

54 minutes ago, rossislider said:

I also think that hunt success numbers put out by AZGFD are garbage. They not accurate due to voluntary reporting. Also, people use a lot of points to get December tags and often go home empty handed because they expected that hunt to be something it is not. They incorrectly assume that their late December Coues tags are "rut-hunt" tags, and likewise assume that they should expect to see multiple 100+ inch deer on those hunts. They are not rut hunts. At best they are pre-rut, and in a good year, you might see a little rut activity the last few days. The advantage is fewer tag numbers and a longer hunt period.

Also cooler weather, likely not any snakes out.

[rossislider]

2 hours ago, bonecollector said:

Also cooler weather, likely not any snakes out.

Great point! I almost stepped on a coiled rattler on my son's hunt in mid October as we here hiking back in the near dark.. Didn't see it in the grass and rocks until I was about to step on it. Just about had a heart attack as I jumped back. I hate those things.

[Big or Bust]

5 hours ago, POk3s said:

Okay. You guys have made up my mind to apply for only the late December hunts since I’m this close. Probably a 10% type odds for first choice and a 40-50% for second choice. If I don’t draw I’ll go down in January, scout around, and try to send an arrow through one. 

Kinda have to. You are in no man's land...

[POk3s]

I understand fully that it’s not a “gimme” hunt” or a late hunt. That’s just one of the many reasons I had for not wanting to wait. But like I mentioned, if I don’t get a tag this year, I’m just fine with going on a scouting trip with my bow in hand. 

 

Snakes dont scare me as bad as that garbage going on on the boarder. I’m sure some of you guys love that NR’s are scared of that. Just like I’m glad when NR’s won’t hunt certain areas because of grizzly bears  .