Draw Odds Question

[CouesPursuit]

Can anyone help explain how a 1st choice applicant with the most bonus points for a particular hunt number doesn't draw said tag? I don't see how it is a NR cap when 1 (10% = 1.5) tag is available to non residents and my only other explanations still don't make sense when I look at the next highest point holders. 

 

Thanks

 

[NOTAGS]

not enough tags for the bp pass off to apply.

[azcouesandelk]

They put in for a second choice with better odds and drew there second choice

 

With Arizona’s draw system even with max points you are never garunteed a tag. 

[CouesPursuit]

18 minutes ago, azcouesandelk said:

They put in for a second choice with better odds and drew there second choice

 

With Arizona’s draw system even with max points you are never garunteed a tag. 

In a sense, duh (on me). And thanks for the reply. But, does that mean that the next 5 guys with 20 points did as well? There are that many people making the second choice accidental BP pass mistake?

 

Also, what about the 2, 20 BP second highest holders, they both drew their first choice? 

 

Seems like a ton of random for the particular hunt.

[Red Rabbit]

I am not seeing an obvious explanation either.  With 15 permits in the elk hunt, there should be 3 permits for the 20% pass (even 1 for NR).  Since they look at first choice and then second choice, the person with 21 points should have drawn.  Maybe the person's CC was rejected?

[Shane.A.Luke]

It may not apply above but, PointGuard is messing up the figures and max points needed.  People are donating and turning in their tags because it wasn't a great growth year or various other reasons.  In some cases the next applicant was contacted so they can hunt and it uses their points (and no longer in the pool) but in others the tag went to non-profit orgs to distribute (no points removed from pool).  These tags can take a lifetime to draw and with PointGuard we are going to experience point creep that it may take two lifetimes.

It's messed up when a guy donates the tag to keep his points and then the non-profit grants that tag to his son.  Whenever there are rules, people will play them.

What are your thoughts?

[ThomC]

Let say you buy 20 lottery tickets and your buddy buys one.  You have the best odds to win but buddy still wins.  Then you get your second choice.  That is the AZ big game lottery.  

[CouesPursuit]

1 hour ago, ThomC said:

Let say you buy 20 lottery tickets and your buddy buys one.  You have the best odds to win but buddy still wins.  Then you get your second choice.  That is the AZ big game lottery.  

The ever-enlightening Thom. Thank you so much for clearing up the question. I'm not sure where CWT would be without you. 

[AZAV8ER]

Years ago I read a description of Utahs point system and how it worked. It had a logic to it but not what I was thinking it was. Does AZFGD hap a paper or article anywhere describing how the point system works. You would think something their customers are so invested in would be transparent. 

[PowellSixO]

16 hours ago, Shane.A.Luke said:

It may not apply above but, PointGuard is messing up the figures and max points needed.  People are donating and turning in their tags because it wasn't a great growth year or various other reasons.  In some cases the next applicant was contacted so they can hunt and it uses their points (and no longer in the pool) but in others the tag went to non-profit orgs to distribute (no points removed from pool).  These tags can take a lifetime to draw and with PointGuard we are going to experience point creep that it may take two lifetimes.

It's messed up when a guy donates the tag to keep his points and then the non-profit grants that tag to his son.  Whenever there are rules, people will play them.

What are your thoughts?

^^^^ This.

 

Point Guard is b.s.! The AZ big game draw is a gamble, and I believe the tag you draw should be too. If you get a dry year you get a dry year. If you get a wet year, you get a wet year. If sh!t happens in your life, so be it. Point creep will happen for sure. The units that are already almost impossible to draw, will be come unobtainable for some. And just wait, they'll probably introduce their new super bonus point b.s. soon too, which will help even more. 

[Big Browns]

Personally I'm extremely happy Point Guard is offered.  I've had several friends who couldn't go on hunts due to sudden illness or family emergencies.  Those people lost a lot of points, time and money for something that was out of their control.  Point Guard helps all of us in those situations.  Yes, it can also be used for other reasons, so what!  If a guy used 10-20 points on a hunt and decides he doesn't want to go for whatever reason I don't see any reason why he can't or shouldn't be able to turn it in using Point Guard.  If it's legal and allowed by law I have NO issue with someone utilizing this system to benefit them!  That's exactly why you buy Point Guard, to benefit you!!!!

[Roosevelt Mark]

19 minutes ago, Big Browns said:

Personally I'm extremely happy Point Guard is offered.  I've had several friends who couldn't go on hunts due to sudden illness or family emergencies.  Those people lost a lot of points, time and money for something that was out of their control.  Point Guard helps all of us in those situations.  Yes, it can also be used for other reasons, so what!  If a guy used 10-20 points on a hunt and decides he doesn't want to go for whatever reason I don't see any reason why he can't or shouldn't be able to turn it in using Point Guard.  If it's legal and allowed by law I have NO issue with someone utilizing this system to benefit them!  That's exactly why you buy Point Guard, to benefit you!!!!

We have a winner.

I buy it for elk because I have 19 bp. If I get in a wreck or my illness comes back and I can't physicaly make, I'm not out all those years of bp's.

I personally could care less about drout or any other conditions.

[PowellSixO]

30 minutes ago, Big Browns said:

Personally I'm extremely happy Point Guard is offered.  I've had several friends who couldn't go on hunts due to sudden illness or family emergencies.  Those people lost a lot of points, time and money for something that was out of their control.  Point Guard helps all of us in those situations.  Yes, it can also be used for other reasons, so what!  If a guy used 10-20 points on a hunt and decides he doesn't want to go for whatever reason I don't see any reason why he can't or shouldn't be able to turn it in using Point Guard.  If it's legal and allowed by law I have NO issue with someone utilizing this system to benefit them!  That's exactly why you buy Point Guard, to benefit you!!!!

If it's legal, then it must be ok. 

[Non-Typical Solutions]

Interestingly enough all the numbers.......and to think, I just look at the available hunts and apply.....too much for my small brain to wrap around!

Rain or drought.......I just want to hunt as often as possible which isn't often enough. Getting harder and harder to draw an elk tag and even if you do it is civil war out in the woods.

Sheep and antelope are both just a mythical dream that doesn't really seem to exist!

Deer can be hunted in southern units but getting drawn in my back yard is next to impossible!

Figuring out the draw is like trying to figure out how I ended up paying more taxes

If I get drawn, yeeee hawwww........if I don't..........back to coyote season!!!!!

 

[buckshotaz]

Correct me if I am wrong, isn't the NR 20% only on the total of tags for deer, elk and antelope? And the NR 20% for sheep on a unit by unit basis, where a NR could never draw a sheep tag in a unit with one tag even with max points?