2018 Rut Predictions

[carpcody]

So I'm trying to pass the time before my elk hunt by looking at the extended forecast and moon phase for my hunt. Full moon lands the last few days of the hunt, and average high/low is 65/35 pretty much the full two weeks. Just courious what people feel the rut is going to do this year? On time? Late? Early? 

[Sneaker]

The problem is, the state is so big and conditions so different, it seems like every year guys report different things across the state, and even within the same unit. "Not rutting yet, no bugles for us today" While guys somewhere else in the unit are saying "They were on fire!"

I haven't spent nearly as many Septembers in the woods as others here, but it seems very hard to predict anything, anywhere. 

I remember a couple years ago, it was a good rain year, everybody was pumped that it would be an awesome rut, but it turned out to be a very quiet year by most accounts.

[BowNut]

Definitely different from one unit to the next. My parents had a bull in velvet bungling in the front yard for about 30 min.  in Strawberry last night. 

[carpcody]

12 minutes ago, BowNut said:

Definitely different from one unit to the next. My parents had a bull in velvet bungling in the front yard for about 30 min.  in Strawberry last night. 

Nice. Even though I don't have a ton of experience with rutting bulls(mostly due to the draw gods) I do understand that it can be different from one place to the next any day. It does seem like it has been an above average year as far as monsoon rains. Does anybody think that makes a difference one way or another? 

[Delw]

I think its going to start earlier this year than the last 3 at least for the units west of i-17. we are already getting early morning thunder storms in phx. usually that starts around dove season.. this winter is going to be a wet and early one.

[goinhuntn]

I think the rut is unpredictable in AZ due to weather. As said above some units they are bugling others they are silent.

The rut just happens when there good & ready IMO.

[recurveman]

I can predict the rut with 100% certainty.   The rut is directly related to my allergies.   If my allergies are horrible the rut is great.   If my allergies are mild then the rut will also be mild.   This has held true 100% of the time for the last 25 years.   Basically I think if the monsoon rains are better then the rut will be stronger.   There must be a plant that blooms and my allergies get really bad at that time.   If we don't get enough rain for that plant to bloom then my allergies are easier to deal with.   

From what I have seen I would expect a very good rut.   

[WHT_MTNMAN]

Every year the cows get bred and the rut happens. I think what most people mean by a "good rut" is lots of bugling and fighting etc.. This happens when there is a significant amount of dominant bulls in a given area. On wet monsoon years the bulls can be spread out much further and do not have to confront other bulls/cows at water holes etc..

I've seen the best "rutting" action to take place when it is dry and the elk are concentrated in smaller areas and as such more competition occurs. 

This year in most of the state water is everywhere, the rut will seem slow to many because of it is my guess. 

[1uofacat]

The rut, by most accounts, does not depend on the phase of the moon, the temperature, or the weather for that matter.  While I'm not a biologist (although almost made that choice some 40 years ago), I've learned rut occurs when cows come into estrus and the bulls bugle to warn other bulls to stay away.  It's been postulated that cows come into heat based on the "length of day" more than other factors.  That said, the rut depends on the cows, not the bulls.  The bulls may be bugling to locate other bulls and advertise themselves to cows that may or may not come into heat regardless, but the intensity of the rut depends on cows... imo...

 

When other factors like hunting pressure or rain come into the mix, it can certainly change things and put a damper on activity, but that has no bearing on when cows come into estrus.  Note that cows are only "in heat" for 12-24 hours I believe, so that's something to keep in mind.  When a bull has a "hot cow" in his harem on one day, it's likely that the next day it's over for her.  That doesn't mean bulls won't be talking to each other to keep tabs on whereabouts, but the herd bull's "tolerance" to other bulls change with his cow's state.

 

I also am a subscriber to the idea that a cow in estrus will be bread by more than one bull during her cycle.  Also, she may have more than one cycle/year if she doesn't become pregnant the first "go-round".  That explains why satellite bulls hang around a herd bull's cows... in the hopes that they too may get a chance to breed with the bull's cows when they come into heat.

 

This would explain why a rut appears to be GREAT some years when we're in on herds over a period of time when several cows come into their cycle over a few different days or week or two.  The bulls will be going crazy because it's "prolonged" especially if several different cows are going in and out of heat.  For that same reason, if more cows than not DO NOT go into estrus that year, for whatever reason, or perhaps we're not within earshot of those herds during the time their cows are in heat, then the bugling activity appears to be less because we simply missed it.  That would be sad for a bull if all his cows came into heat at the same time... it'd be great for a day, than nothing for 3 or 4 weeks!  hahaha  (as I recall, cows can have a cycle every 3 or 4 weeks if not pregnant).

 

My 2 cents...

 

[carpcody]

Good lnfo 

[Flatlander]

One thing I have noticed is that when the bulls start bugling early, I tend to get my hopes up that the “rut” will be great.

What I have noticed is that often the rut doesn’t really peak and is less intense for a longer period of time. 

 

Just my .02

[ctafoya]

Bulls were screaming and pushing cows in unit 1 3 weeks ago.

[trphyhntr]

roughly september 15- october 15

[CatfishKev]

I just hope there still noisy for the youth hunt.

[wildwoody]

Very humid , night rutting will occur, still a little quiet in 22