Regs are out

[bonecollector777]

7w Rifle bull

 

5pts

According to draw reports no-one with 5 points fell into the bonus pass like knothead said. Odds I'm using are matching with bonus reports saying 32% with 5 points. 84.8% of guys with 6 drew in the bonus pass last year.

[knothead]

"4A Rifle Bull and 4B Rifle Bull 3 bonus points"

 

 

4a = 19%

4b = 18.9%

[bonecollector777]

4A Rifle Bull and 4B Rifle Bull 3 bonus points

Thanks in advance

Both are about 27%

[bonecollector777]

Knothead if your odds are saying guys drew 7w with 5 points in the bonus pass something is messed up with your numbers.

[bonecollector777]

Last question, 2a goat with 20pts, we owe you a keger

6%

[Flatlander]

 

4A Rifle Bull and 4B Rifle Bull 3 bonus points

Thanks in advance

Both are about 27%

Interesting, GoHunt disagrees. Did you pull those from TopRut or calc them yourself?

[knothead]

That is why I earlier asked what odds report you were using because we have differences. Mine shows that 9 Non-Res applicants drew with 18-14 points.

[bonecollector777]

That is why I earlier asked what odds report you were using because we have differences. Mine shows that 9 Non-Res applicants drew with 18-14 points.

are we still talking about 7w late hunt here? No non resident with more than 8 points even applied for that hunt.

 

I looked and think you may be looking at the 7w early archery numbers?

[bonecollector777]

I said twice earlier I'm getting my numbers off toprut. I've calculated them with my own odds and they have been within 1-2% so figured they were close enough.

[HuntHarder]

 

 

4A Rifle Bull and 4B Rifle Bull 3 bonus points

Thanks in advance

Both are about 27%

Interesting, GoHunt disagrees. Did you pull those from TopRut or calc them yourself?

 

Looks like hunterstrailhead puts both around 18%

[bonecollector777]

Hmm. . Three different draw odds systems giving odds differing by 10%. I guess in reality 19 or 27% odds isn't enough difference to really tell you if you're gonna draw or not. Only thing odds are really gonna help with is the bonus pass and seeing if you're guaranteed to draw or not. Especially with the different amounts of people putting in every year which could throw off all of these numbers anyway.

[knothead]

My bad. You are correct, I was looking at the early archery NR applicants and they had 18-14 points. Late rifle, I show no NR's with more than 8 points.

 

Still my odds are 23.5% for a resident applying for late rifle 7w.

 

I used to look and G&F bonus reports and calculate odds but I have gotten fat and lazy and been using this service the last 5-6 years. Always figured it was close enough.

[wildwoody]

Do theses percentages cover 1st % 2nd choice or only for the 1st

[bowhunter4life]

What bonus pass for 22 n sept archery bull?

[knothead]

"What bonus pass for 22 n sept archery bull?"

 

11 points or better was 100%. 1 out of 8 people with 10 points drew in the 20% pass.