2018 Elk Draw Odds

[DubTee]

I don't post often but have been reading for years, always appreciate the good insight here. I do have a question regarding draw odds for those that can help - my situation is kind of complicated, a good test to the draw know-it-alls!

 

Been looking at updated draw odds heading into 2018 on the other sites that offer them.

 

I am now a non-resident but hold an AZ lifetime license. I want to apply with a pure non-resident, I have 11 points, he has 6. That means we average 8.5 but is rounded up to 9 on a group application - correct?

 

If so, let's say my buddy and I apply as a group for hunt X, and there are 100 tags total available. Up to 10 would be available to non-residents, in which up to 5 of those can now be drawn in the bonus pass. If 4 non-resident tags have been drawn in the bonus pass and our number comes up next, can we draw that tag assuming there are still bonus tags available (to residents)? Will the "pure" non-resident get non-res tag #5 and I get one of the available 15 resident tags left in that round due to my lifetime license status?

 

Thanks in advance for the help.

 

 

[CouesPursuit]

Yes, 9 points.

 

Regardless of your lifetime license, you are now considered a Non Resident for draw purposes. You guys would not pull #5 in the bonus pass because 2 passes need to be available when your random number is pulled, but you could take two of the other 5 Non Resident tags in the 1-2 pass.

[High Point Outfitters]

You are correct your group would go in with 9 points.

 

It is my understanding, since you applying as a group application you stay as a group. Because you are applying with a Non-resident your application follows the NR rules which would not let either of you draw the 5th tag.

I hope that helps.

[High Point Outfitters]

In effect you have tossed your advantage of the life time license away applying with a NR. It is a sweet deal not to fall into NR restrictions with your life time license even though you are obtaining a NR tag. I would apply separately.

[Titanium700]

I would apply separately as well.

 

Im in the frame of mind I earned those precious points....collect your own.

[jim]

Since the 10 percent cap does not apply to you it would allow for you to receive the tag in your scenario.

 

From page 12 of the regs.

 

Lifetime License Holders- If a lifetime license holder changes residency status from Arizona, the licensee must then purchase non-resident stamps, tags, and permits. A non-resident tag or stamp can accompany your lifetime resident license. If you are a lifetime license holder who has moved out of state, the 10 percent non-resident cap does not apply to you. The lifetime license will remain legal for the taking of all wildlife as permitted by law. Residency may be re-established after moving back to Arizona and meeting the required time period as defined below.

[Heat]

The app is treated as a group with all or none of the applicants drawing. You could possibly draw the 4th and 5th tag in the bonus only round, but not the 5th and 6th. If you apply solo you will be considered a resident for drawing purposes since you still hold a lifetime resident license. You will still have to pay the NR fees for the tag however. Still a chance you could both draw in the random 1/2 pass.

[DubTee]

Thanks guys. That clears it up for me.

[Delw]

I dont believe in all the stats and ways people come up with. No bonus points put in for the same early archery bull hunt for the last 3 years and we got drawn the last 3 years. kid the 1st year me the second 2. it was the 1st time she ever put in too.

its luck of the draw anyone can do it.

[Flatlander]

Thats OK theres lots of people in this world who dont believe in math just look at the government

[jim]

Delw, Since 80 percent of the draw go to random draw you would have the basic same chance as anyone else to draw random tags. Since you put in unit 8 there were 160 random tags so you drawing tags is not that much of a stretch. My wife with zero points drew unit 10 4 years ago and we both drew this year with 4 points. But all you have to do is look at the point draw charts and it will show you what point numbers the 40 bonus tags went to. I always hope my luck does not suck bad enough to wait all the way to max points. With the hunts I put in for it should not.