AZGFD - How to read 2016 Elk Draw Report?

[varnco]

So, I am looking at the report that is put out from last year draw odds, and I having trouble understanding the %. Given the attached chart, if I had 2 points, what was the draw success rate? 38.89%?

 

If I had 1, it was 16.67%?

 

How is it that a 6 point had a success of 50% but 5 had 100%?

 

I'm pretty sure my head is going to explode and I'm just reading it wrong. Any help is appreciated understanding this data.

 

[ForkHorn]

That's how I read it. On the 6 points, it's because it was their second choice. They probably drew their first choice.

[CouesFanatic]

You have the one and two bonus point percentages correct. With six points both people applied for that hunt as a second choice. One of them drew it and the other drew their first choice which was another hunt. That's why it was 50%. Had he not drawn his first choice it would be 100% for 6 points.

[Flatlander]

AZGFD's reports are terrible. The one you really want is Bonus Point Analysis by Hunt 2016 WINTER Bonus Pass. It can be found in the same place as the 1-2 pass report you have.

 

For that hunt, every resident was successful who had more than 4 PT's. After the bonus pass 24 tags were left for the random draw with approximately 94 remaining applicants. So your odds are on the order of 25%. Slightly more if you have 3 PT's and a little less if you have 0 PT's.

 

Good luck, I have been on that hunt and I killed an elk. Lots of fun.

[varnco]

AZGFD's reports are terrible. The one you really want is Bonus Point Analysis by Hunt 2016 WINTER Bonus Pass. It can be found in the same place as the 1-2 pass report you have.

 

For that hunt, every resident was successful who had more than 4 PT's. After the bonus pass 24 tags were left for the random draw with approximately 94 remaining applicants. So your odds are on the order of 25%. Slightly more if you have 3 PT's and a little less if you have 0 PT's.

 

Good luck, I have been on that hunt and I killed an elk. Lots of fun.

 

I can't seem to find the report you mention. Is it listed here?

 

[bonecollector777]

It's the third one from top. It shows how many points each hunt took to draw in the bonus pass. Make sure your regs match with the report year

[Flatlander]

Bonus pass by hunt number

[varnco]

Okay, I think I'm almost there... for this one, example, I read it that the top row is the bonus pass, and that people with 5 pts and 7 points made the bonus pass, with just 2 having it as their first choice and then 7 people with 5 points made it their second choice. Of these 9 people, 6 got a tag, 2 first choicers and then 4 of the 2nd choicers.

 

2nd set of numbers is pass 1 & 2, here. You had 5 people with 4 pts put it down as their first choice, and 16 people as 2nd, but only 2 got drawn out of 5 people with 4 pts who put it in as first choice?

 

So actually, people with 3 pts faired better than those with 4 pts in this particular drawing?

 

 

[Flatlander]

You are mostly correct, however there is no way to identify whether the folks drawn had the hunt as their first or second choice.

 

Because of the way the draw is administered, first and second choices are evaluated together in both the bonus pass and 1-2 pass. So for instance in the bonus pass the applicants with 10 PT's would have their application reviewed for their first and then second choice before going to the next applicant with that number of points until all point holders at all levels are reviewed.

 

In the 1-2 passit is repeated, but based on each applicants random number starting from lowest and working to highest.

 

Then it's repeated for choices 3-5.

 

Hope this helps.

[varnco]

Thanks! I put in for my top 2 yesterday, trying to use the draw results of 2016 to improve my odds.