Flatlander Report post Posted January 21, 2017 I have to look, but I am in the same boat with either 17 or 18 points. I figure one more year on the Early Rifle and then I am doing the Archery bit. I see a smokey fall in your future. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lancetkenyon Report post Posted January 21, 2017 Archery for sure! That will keep you out of the drawings I am trying for. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted January 21, 2017 Archery for sure! That will keep you out of the drawings I am trying for. Lots of this going on here. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bonecollector777 Report post Posted January 21, 2017 You could make a nice dime by applying with another willing hunter for a premier archery hunt! Use point guard if you need to back out of hunt. A 23N/S early archery tag would be worth at least $1k to me if I weren't out of country in Sept. A lot more to others. Just saying To be able to guarantee someone a 23 tag with 17 points they would also need atleast 16-17 points do wouldn't really be much of an advantage. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Norteno Report post Posted January 23, 2017 The thought would be pay up only if they were drawn. If not, nobody loses and everyone gets a bonus point. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Alpinebullwinkle Report post Posted January 23, 2017 Just for the record I am aware of at least two people that have drawn September bull gun hunts with only 1 bonus point.The element of "luck in the draw" still outweighs the impact of bonus points IMHO! I have many times demonstrated to AGFD how squaring the bonus points would make the system fairer to all........ less luck.... and more impact from bonus points. Feedback from hunters though has suggested that the majority still prefer the current system..... where luck outweighs unsuccessful applications (bonus points). 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
pyle762 Report post Posted February 16, 2017 Just for the record I am aware of at least two people that have drawn September bull gun hunts with only 1 bonus point.The element of "luck in the draw" still outweighs the impact of bonus points IMHO! I have many times demonstrated to AGFD how squaring the bonus points would make the system fairer to all........ less luck.... and more impact from bonus points. Feedback from hunters though has suggested that the majority still prefer the current system..... where luck outweighs unsuccessful applications (bonus points). Can you explain what squaring the bonus points would do? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
654321 Report post Posted February 16, 2017 Just for the record I am aware of at least two people that have drawn September bull gun hunts with only 1 bonus point.The element of "luck in the draw" still outweighs the impact of bonus points IMHO! I have many times demonstrated to AGFD how squaring the bonus points would make the system fairer to all........ less luck.... and more impact from bonus points. Feedback from hunters though has suggested that the majority still prefer the current system..... where luck outweighs unsuccessful applications (bonus points). Can you explain what squaring the bonus points would do?[/quote 5 bonus points would give you 25 random numbers where 3 would give you 9 random numbers in the draw so although only 2 points difference now would get bigger and bigger the more points you have, if that makes sense Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
pyle762 Report post Posted February 16, 2017 Just for the record I am aware of at least two people that have drawn September bull gun hunts with only 1 bonus point.The element of "luck in the draw" still outweighs the impact of bonus points IMHO! I have many times demonstrated to AGFD how squaring the bonus points would make the system fairer to all........ less luck.... and more impact from bonus points. Feedback from hunters though has suggested that the majority still prefer the current system..... where luck outweighs unsuccessful applications (bonus points). Can you explain what squaring the bonus points would do?[/quote 5 bonus points would give you 25 random numbers where 3 would give you 9 random numbers in the draw so although only 2 points difference now would get bigger and bigger the more points you have, if that makes sense It does..thanks Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BugleChaser Report post Posted February 16, 2017 If there were only one tag and just these two applicants and you're the guy with 5 points, this is how the odds would change: Now you have a 5/8 or 0.625 or 62.5% chance of drawing that tag. If squared you have a 25/34 or 0.735 or 73.5% chance of drawing that tag. So with the squaring, more emphasis on number of bonus points rather than blind luck. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Alpinebullwinkle Report post Posted February 18, 2017 Good explanation 654321. To explain it differently if you are some one like me that mostly applies for September archery tags in the squaring system of bonus points I would expect to get drawn every 4-6 years verses the current system where my realistic expectation is every 6-10 years. Less luck and more bonus point impact which is fairer for all considering some people are just much luckier drawing than others. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted February 19, 2017 You wouldn't average drawing a tag anymore often than you do now. Regardless of whether points are squared or not does not change the number of available tags and the number of applicants. It would make it less likely that you would ever get lucky and draw out before hitting the bonus pass. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Alpinebullwinkle Report post Posted February 19, 2017 I had a black belt expert run the math. Basically it just tightens up the bell curve by eliminating some of the luck. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
