Draw question

[goinhuntn]

Question for you guys that really know the draw. I have 6 points going into the draw this year & wanted to know if I should put the hunt i really want as first choice or second choice. I don't have max points to draw early archery which is what I really want, but i have enough to draw late rifle. I am a non resident & have drawn 2

late rifle tags for the unit I want, but I really want a early archery tag. I think I know how im going to put in just wanted some thoughts or opinions. I should add the unit i am

putting in for is a pretty popular early archery unit.

[trphyhntr]

I just put in 1 choice

[HuntHarder]

Well, If you will be in the bonus point pass for your late rifle hunt, it doesn't matter if you put it as 1st or 2nd. You will only be considered for that hunt during the bonus point pass. If you are not drawn during the bonus point phase, then your 1st choice gets looked at first before your 2nd.

 

So in other words, if you know you are going to be in the bonus point pass for the late rifle hunt, either put archery as your 1st choice down and no 2nd choice, or plan on drawing your 2nd choice late rifle hunt and having no chance of drawing your early archery tag. I would suggest, if you want to hunt early archery, put 2 early archery hunts down as your 1st and 2nd. If you just want a tag, then do Archery 1st, and rifle 2nd and hope that you are not in the bonus point pass for the late rifle hunt.

[cjl2010]

How do you know if you are going to be in the bonus pass?

[HuntHarder]

Most just base it on last years data. I look at trends, and check to see if there is "point creep" for that particular unit. If not, then you can get a pretty good feel for if you will be in the bonus point pass or not.

[goinhuntn]

I guess I should clarify a little better. I am only putting in for 1 specific unit based on gohunt odds early archery is 5% late archery is about 40% & late rifle is 98% with 6 non resident points.

I really want to draw early archery, but its along shot, should I put early archery as 1st & 2nd choice than late rifle 3rd & so on? I don't mind drawing the late rifle hunt, but i don't want it as my first

choice would rather draw archery. hope this makes sense. In the past i have put early archery as my first 3 choices, but was told I am wasting my choices.

[yotebuster]

I guess I should clarify a little better. I am only putting in for 1 specific unit based on gohunt odds early archery is 5% late archery is about 40% & late rifle is 98% with 6 non resident points.

I really want to draw early archery, but its along shot, should I put early archery as 1st & 2nd choice than late rifle 3rd & so on? I don't mind drawing the late rifle hunt, but i don't want it as my first

choice would rather draw archery. hope this makes sense. In the past i have put early archery as my first 3 choices, but was told I am wasting my choices.

Not sure that there's a unit that has tougher draw odds for late archery then late rifle. Honestly if I were you I'd just say what units and hunts they are and someone can crunch the numbers for you and see if you'll get your late rifle with 2nd chance in bonus pass. You won't get any of those tags 3rd choice so don't worry about it.

[kennyazman]

 

I guess I should clarify a little better. I am only putting in for 1 specific unit based on gohunt odds early archery is 5% late archery is about 40% & late rifle is 98% with 6 non resident points.

I really want to draw early archery, but its along shot, should I put early archery as 1st & 2nd choice than late rifle 3rd & so on? I don't mind drawing the late rifle hunt, but i don't want it as my first

choice would rather draw archery. hope this makes sense. In the past i have put early archery as my first 3 choices, but was told I am wasting my choices.

Not sure that there's a unit that has tougher draw odds for late archery then late rifle. Honestly if I were you I'd just say what units and hunts they are and someone can crunch the numbers for you and see if you'll get your late rifle with 2nd chance in bonus pass. You won't get any of those tags 3rd choice so don't worry about it.

There is a unit that has those exact odds for a non resident.

 

To answer the original question, like others have already said, if you put the late rifle hunt down as a second choice you will draw it in the bonus pass and not even be considered for that units early archery hunt even if you put it as first choice. So if you want the early archery you need to put it as your one and only choice.

[Flatlander]

Yeah, you need to decide between the early archery and late rifle hunt. If you put the late rifle hunt in your first two choices there is a 98% chance you are going to draw it in the bonus pass. And if you draw it in the bonus pass there is 0% chance of drawing the archery hunt.

 

And by the way folks, late archery in good units are no gimme to draw.

[AzPlumber]

I would put the hunt you want (low odds) first and a hunt with better odds second and only use addition choices if they are a 100% draw.

[ThomC]

The more point creeps their are the more points creep.

[yotebuster]

Yeah, you need to decide between the early archery and late rifle hunt. If you put the late rifle hunt in your first two choices there is a 98% chance you are going to draw it in the bonus pass. And if you draw it in the bonus pass there is 0% chance of drawing the archery hunt.

 

And by the way folks, late archery in good units are no gimme to draw.

In the good units yes, I just can't figure out which unit would take more for late archery then late rifle. I know that a unit 1 or 23 late archery tag will take 6-8 points but the late rifle tags take a few more typically.

[bigorange]

The more point creeps their are the more points creep.

Who you callin creep?

[wapitibob]

I guess I should clarify a little better. I am only putting in for 1 specific unit based on gohunt odds early archery is 5% late archery is about 40% & late rifle is 98% with 6 non resident points.

I really want to draw early archery, but its along shot, should I put early archery as 1st & 2nd choice than late rifle 3rd & so on? I don't mind drawing the late rifle hunt, but i don't want it as my first

choice would rather draw archery. hope this makes sense. In the past i have put early archery as my first 3 choices, but was told I am wasting my choices.

 

Despite what has been written, you will be in the Bonus Pass regardless of which unit you apply for because you have more than zero points.

Going off your comments, you do not have enough points to draw the early archery in the Bonus Pass because you don't have enough points to be in the max point pool(s) for that hunt and the 20% Bonus Pass tags will have been drawn when they finally get to you and look at your 1st choice (early archery). At that point, they'll look at your 2nd choice, late rifle, and if there are tags left, you'll draw in that Bonus Pass drawing, assuming you have the points to be in the max pool(s). Having drawn the late rifle in the Bonus Pass, you will be excluded from the 1-2 Pass (random) where you would have a slim chance at the early archery hunt, mentioned by Flatlander. In the 1-2 Pass, you'll have new random numbers generated, keeping the lowest, and nobody is sorted by points, just that lowest number. That's your chance at the archery tag, hoping you get a low number. The upside is that with 6 points you'll have 7 numbers; a weighted advantage over those with fewer points.

 

If you only want the early archery, list it as your 1st and only choice. Based on what you have stated, your only real chance to draw that tag will be the 1-2 Pass.

If you want to try early archery hoping nobody with more points than you will apply, but will be happy with the late rifle, list archery 1st and late rifle 2nd and assume you'll draw the rifle tag.

 

edit; looking at your unit, you are a long way from the max point pool for your archery hunt. Your only archery chance is the 1-2 Pass and that is slim, looking at the number of apps.

For the late rifle, they cleaned out all the NR apps ahead of your point pool in the Bonus Pass. Your point pool was on par with the number of NR tags so theoretically, with no influx from guys with more points, you have a 100% chance at that tag in the Bonus Pass.

[Chris]

Only put in the hunt you want. Life is short.