Gohunt insider

[bonecollector777]

Ok i have seven points going into draw what are my odds for 3a rifle can anyone enter that for me? Please that would be awesome? Thanks in advance and pm me if u would like

1.3%

[COA]

Do you put a acrchery hunt for 1st choice amd rifle second due to thw odds and bonus pass?

[Green Bullet]

if i have 13 pts as a resident, can someone tell me my odds to draw 4a archery and 9 archery?

[Camofreak]

if i have 13 pts as a resident, can someone tell me my odds to draw 4a archery and 9 archery?

4.9% and 5.5%

[codyhuntsaz]

Well according to go hunt insider I had a 64% chance to draw a unit 10 tag with 23 points.....next year I'll have 24 points.

[Flatlander]

Well according to go hunt insider I had a 64% chance to draw a unit 10 tag with 23 points.....next year I'll have 24 points.

False. According to go hunt insider, 64% of the people with 23 points drew the tag last year. Go hunt insider simply shows the data from last year. It does not provide true odds (probability) of drawing a tag this year based on point creep, changes in the number of tags, application trends, etc.

 

Regardless, I feel for you, having your hope dashed year after year is exhausting. There is still hope early this week, albeit smaller than before. Good luck.

[tjhunt2]

I use Hunters Traihead for $17.50 a yr. I split it with a friend. The more people you share it with the cheaper it is. Makes a lot of sense to me.

 

TJ

[DesertBull]

With gohunt or trailhead or whatever you use, people make the mistake of looking at their current point total column when in actuality they should be looking at the previous years. If you are going into the 2017 draw with 5 points, you need to be looking at the 4 bonus point column from last years results, not the 5 point column.

 

 

Unit 1 archery bull 2016 -

 

There were 89 apps with 10 points and the draw rate for 10 points was 9.2% - 8 tags

There were 22 apps with 11 points. They drew 100%. 22 tags

 

Now, if you have 11points going into the 2017 draw and looks at this, you think you have a 100% chance at a tag. WRONG.

 

Of the 89 apps in 2016 with 10 points, only 8 were drawn. That means 81 people are likely to apply for unit 1 with 11 points in 2017, not 22 like what happened in 2016. the actual rate for 2017 at 11 points won't be anywhere near 100%, it will likely drop below 15%.

[Flatlander]

With gohunt or trailhead or whatever you use, people make the mistake of looking at their current point total column when in actuality they should be looking at the previous years. If you are going into the 2017 draw with 5 points, you need to be looking at the 4 bonus point column from last years results, not the 5 point column.

 

 

Unit 1 archery bull 2016 -

 

There were 89 apps with 10 points and the draw rate for 10 points was 9.2% - 8 tags

There were 22 apps with 11 points. They drew 100%. 22 tags

 

Now, if you have 11points going into the 2017 draw and looks at this, you think you have a 100% chance at a tag. WRONG.

 

Of the 89 apps in 2016 with 10 points, only 8 were drawn. That means 81 people are likely to apply for unit 1 with 11 points in 2017, not 22 like what happened in 2016. the actual rate for 2017 at 11 points won't be anywhere near 100%, it will likely drop below 15%.

Except that you forgot to factor out the NR's. The vast majority of those 81 people (I am not pulling out my reports to verify but I seem to remember more than 50) were NR's. However there will also be a number of people with more than 11 PT's that decide to apply for this hunt next year, which always happens.

[codyhuntsaz]

Ahh....we'll I GUESS that cushions the blow a bit

[DesertBull]

 

With gohunt or trailhead or whatever you use, people make the mistake of looking at their current point total column when in actuality they should be looking at the previous years. If you are going into the 2017 draw with 5 points, you need to be looking at the 4 bonus point column from last years results, not the 5 point column.

 

 

Unit 1 archery bull 2016 -

 

There were 89 apps with 10 points and the draw rate for 10 points was 9.2% - 8 tags

There were 22 apps with 11 points. They drew 100%. 22 tags

 

Now, if you have 11points going into the 2017 draw and looks at this, you think you have a 100% chance at a tag. WRONG.

 

Of the 89 apps in 2016 with 10 points, only 8 were drawn. That means 81 people are likely to apply for unit 1 with 11 points in 2017, not 22 like what happened in 2016. the actual rate for 2017 at 11 points won't be anywhere near 100%, it will likely drop below 15%.

Except that you forgot to factor out the NR's. The vast majority of those 81 people (I am not pulling out my reports to verify but I seem to remember more than 50) were NR's. However there will also be a number of people with more than 11 PT's that decide to apply for this hunt next year, which always happens.

I think hunters trail head seperates the NR from the residents in their odds but Yes i agree. The main point was to look at the previous years draw odds with the point total you had for that year.

[Flatlander]

Agree that it's very important to look at that data. Just want d to give some insight on what else to look at.