AZ8 Report post Posted December 31, 2016 I'm cashing in all my points for hunt number 3799! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wapitibob Report post Posted December 31, 2016 Hunters Trailhead does a good job of estimating NR odds with a few exceptions. As of 2016 there is no reason to estimate, the numbers are right there in black and white. If you want your random odds, TopRut is working on it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wapitibob Report post Posted December 31, 2016 I would be remiss if I didn't give credit where due. A big thank you to Amber Munig and Sheri Carson of the dept. This is a big deal for non residents. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted January 1, 2017 This is like watching my kids argue about the rules of some game. Pretty sure the guy was just dealing in generalities to illustrate a point. That being said, I think everyone should hold out for "Premier" units. Although I am not sure where that is anymore. If you listen to Jay Scott, 9 is no good, 10 is shot out, 1 has too many tags. I guess Everyone just has to wait for 23N. Sorry, just trying to help people out if they read that. I'm not arguing semantics, just that are plenty of good tags being drawn with less than 8 points in the bonus pass pool. I will keep my mouth shut from now on. Sorry man, not trying to bust your cajones. I should have realized your intent would be to help other guys out. I think the stress of trying to decide on hunt choices this year got to me. You're a standup dude. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DesertBull Report post Posted January 3, 2017 I'm with you. I'm using g and f charts to decide what to apply for. NO FALSE HOPE FOR ME! Here is the explanation I got from Jon at Hunter's Trailhead. Makes sense to me. Thank you for your inquiry and that is a very good question-one that I hope I can explain well enough. Feel free to call me if I don’t do a good enough job here. It all comes down to the resident/non-resident allocations. As I'm sure you know, the non-resident applicants are limited to up to 10% of the available permits with 5% of those guaranteed to go in the 1st/2nd choice (or random) pass. If you look at the same report you referred to in you inquiry, you can see at the 14 point level that there were 16 first choice applicants but only 2 permits awarded. Why were only 2 permits awarded at the 14 point level when there were additional 1st choice applicants and permits were awarded to lower point levels????? The answer is that the non-resident quota was met at the 14 point level or higher and all the permits awarded in levels lower than 14 were all to residents. Now if you look at the 11 point level, since the non-resident quota had been met, all 22 permits awarded at that level were awarded to residents. Furthermore, since 6 permits were awarded to the 10 point level, you can surmise that there were only 22 resident applicants in the 11 point level and all of them drew (100% odds) leaving 6 permits to be awarded one level lower. It is a bit confusing and it took a long time for me to wrap my brain around it and understand what was really happening, but that is how it works. It is difficult to determine where (or if) this happens from the bonus pass report, but there are several other units where this did occur. I hope that this helps. Good luck in the drawing. Jon Crump Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted January 3, 2017 Great explanation. Although it is no longer necessary to interpolate, the NR reports are shown in the end of the bonus pass report this year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
5guyshunting Report post Posted January 3, 2017 "Premium" is just a word there are 400+ bulls in ever unit. You just gotta find them. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AZ8 Report post Posted January 3, 2017 Deadline is fast approaching. Only 44 days left! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trphyhntr Report post Posted January 3, 2017 "Premium" is just a word there are 400+ bulls in ever unit. You just gotta find them. id still rather be where there's numerous Giants and not just hunting for a needle in a haystack. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DesertBull Report post Posted January 3, 2017 I'll shoot a raghorn or a cow and be happy. I love game meat. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trphyhntr Report post Posted January 3, 2017 i love hunting 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tomharveyb Report post Posted January 3, 2017 Just noticed Desert Bull's post. Good info. My false hope is back Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
catfish campbell Report post Posted January 4, 2017 7 bonus points for 3A/3C deer....thanks!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jazz Report post Posted January 4, 2017 The wife wants to try her hand at Elk. She has 4 points going into 2017. Whats the best chance at a bull? I imagine I shouldn't be on the app, I only have 1 point. Or would it matter that much? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wildwoody Report post Posted January 5, 2017 It would give you an average of 2 pts. I'd say unit 6a lots of tags and lots of elk. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
