Draw Question

[CouesFanatic]

I've heard that if your second choice has a lower percentage of drawing than your first choice, the second choice is basically eliminated? Any truth to this? If so, then how do you go about applying for two hunts that are nearly equal and often change which one has better draw odds? Say 12a east early vs west early?

 

I've always wondered what others do with this.

[AZkiller]

That is correct. Subtract the odds of your first choice from the odds of your second and that is the effective odds of drawing your second choice.

[krp]

If your 1st choice has a 80% draw odds and the second 25% odds, even if you have a low enough lottery number to draw the 25%, you will have already drawn the 80% so second choice isn't considered.

 

If you have two choices equal odds put your favorite as first.

 

Kent

[krp]

Your second choice is only considered if you didn't draw your first.

 

Kent

[CouesFanatic]

So if I go by last years odds and this year they switch I'm eliminating my second choice correct? Might as well put in for a better first choice(like the late hunt) instead of risking eliminating one option. Agree?

[AZkiller]

Yes. When you look at the odds you want the second to be better. No October hunt first and December second.

[krp]

It's improbable but not impossible to draw your second choice if the first choice has better odds, the closer they are % wise the more likely.

 

Say your first choice is a 40% draw and your second a 35%. You are in competition only with each group for the same hunt #. First choice enough applicants have a lower lottery # than you and it fills up, but the second hunt fewer have lower lottery # and you draw.

 

You can't subtract the first from the second and have a negative... because you could actually draw.

 

Swing for the fences on your first and settle for your second choice.

 

Kent

[WhtMtnHunter]

It's equally or even more important to look at the amount of points it takes to be in the bonus pass. 2 hunts may have very similar overall odds but one might have a lower 20% pass. For example, several years ago I applied for 2 archery bull elk hunts. First choice was unit 1 followed by unit 3B. Unit 1 was about a 6% draw and 3B about 10%. Because of the number of points i had at the time I drew the 3B hunt in the bonus pass round. In other words my 1st choice was never even considered. The bonus pass round looks at and includes both your 1st and 2nd choices.