2015 Draw Odds

[lookinfor110]

  On 2/9/2016 at 2:36 PM, Flatlander said:

 

  On 1/23/2016 at 4:12 PM, lookinfor110 said:

Flatlander:

Resident 8 points archery sept hunt

Unit 1

Unit 9

Unit 10

Many Thanks!

9%

4%

16%

 

Thank-you Flatlander...appreciate it!!!

[Flatlander]

  On 1/23/2016 at 9:59 PM, goinhuntn said:

Thanks in advance Flatlander.

 

NR 5 points: unit 8 early archery 1st choice

unit 8 late rifle 2nd choice

unit 8 late archery 3rd choice

 

Res 5 points: unit 8 early archery 1st choice

unit 8 late rifle 2nd choice

unit 8 late archery 3rd choice

The NR stuff is very hard to predict with the changes made. Basically for archery you will be one of 1490 total people competing for 8 non bonus pass NR tags, its a long shot but because of the changes this year, you are not mathematically eliminated.

For the late rifle hunt you would have likely drawn it last year but this year with only 25 tags in the bonus pass you will probably have to wait for the 1-2 pass where you should have about a 24% chance.

There is 0 chance of you drawing that late archery tag as a 3rd choice.

 

Resident

Archery - 12%

Late Rifle - 35%

Late Archery - 0%

[Flatlander]

  On 1/27/2016 at 6:59 PM, jcarter said:

4 bp resident, rifle 5b bull. Nov25-dec1.

 

4 bp resident. Rifle cow. 5bs. Oct14-oct20

 

Thanks a ton

13%

15%

[Flatlander]

  On 2/7/2016 at 7:04 AM, Vowell said:

Resident

3 points, late 22n December rifle bull

Thanks

22% first hunt

27% second hunt

[Flatlander]

  On 2/7/2016 at 11:28 PM, SEAZCoues said:

Bull elk, 4a resident 7 points, September archery

2nd choice

Bull elk unit 1 Sept archery

 

My brother,

11 points, resident

 

1st choice

Bull elk 5b south Sept rifle

 

2nd

Bull elk unit 1 Sept archery

 

Thank you!

15%

8%

 

2% based on last years 5A hunt

20%

[Flatlander]

  On 2/8/2016 at 4:26 AM, cl65driver said:

Any idea what the unit 1 bull elk early muzzleloader odds are with 2 hunters combined average of 14 points? And unit 1 antelope rifle with 23 points? Resident for both

2% on the ML hunt

Last year 23 pts was 100% for unit 1 antelope. 12 guys with 22 pts did not draw so it could creep a point this year. If it does, you less than a 5% chance of drawing.

[goinhuntn]

  On 2/9/2016 at 2:49 PM, Flatlander said:

 

  On 1/23/2016 at 9:59 PM, goinhuntn said:

Thanks in advance Flatlander.

 

NR 5 points: unit 8 early archery 1st choice

unit 8 late rifle 2nd choice

unit 8 late archery 3rd choice

 

Res 5 points: unit 8 early archery 1st choice

unit 8 late rifle 2nd choice

unit 8 late archery 3rd choice

The NR stuff is very hard to predict with the changes made. Basically for archery you will be one of 1490 total people competing for 8 non bonus pass NR tags, its a long shot but because of the changes this year, you are not mathematically eliminated.

For the late rifle hunt you would have likely drawn it last year but this year with only 25 tags in the bonus pass you will probably have to wait for the 1-2 pass where you should have about a 24% chance.

There is 0 chance of you drawing that late archery tag as a 3rd choice.

 

Resident

Archery - 12%

Late Rifle - 35%

Late Archery - 0%

 

Thanks Flatlander

[Flatlander]

  On 2/9/2016 at 1:30 AM, fisher_hunt said:

Flatlander thanks in advance!

 

5bp 27 late rifle bull (3028)

 

6bp 27 early archery bull (3143)

3B early archery bull (3122)

16%

 

10%

14%

[biglakejake]

  On 2/9/2016 at 2:58 PM, Flatlander said:

 

  On 2/8/2016 at 4:26 AM, cl65driver said:

Any idea what the unit 1 bull elk early muzzleloader odds are with 2 hunters combined average of 14 points? And unit 1 antelope rifle with 23 points? Resident for both

2% on the ML hunt

Last year 23 pts was 100% for unit 1 antelope. 12 guys with 22 pts did not draw so it could creep a point this year. If it does, you less than a 5% chance of drawing.

 

my unit 1 app with 23pts this year...maybe just gets another BP. this is gettin' old fast.

Thank You Flatlander!

 

lee

[cl65driver]

Thanks Flatlander!

[Norteno]

After the fact but here are my choices. Thanks

 

Resident 7 bonus points

23N early archery

5BS early archery

[uofahughes2]

Also after the fact - 5 Bonus Points - Resident

 

9 Archery Bull Early Hunt

5BN Archery Bull Early Hunt

 

 

Muchos Gracias

[PhxDT]

  On 1/18/2016 at 11:29 PM, Jazz said:

I'll make it easy. 4 bonus points. What's my best draw for anything? (Just looking to pack the freezer)

And thanks! =)

what'd you end up going for? Curious. Gotta be cow hunting.

[Flatlander]

  On 2/9/2016 at 6:01 PM, biglakejake said:

 

  On 2/9/2016 at 2:58 PM, Flatlander said:

 

  On 2/8/2016 at 4:26 AM, cl65driver said:

Any idea what the unit 1 bull elk early muzzleloader odds are with 2 hunters combined average of 14 points? And unit 1 antelope rifle with 23 points? Resident for both

2% on the ML hunt

Last year 23 pts was 100% for unit 1 antelope. 12 guys with 22 pts did not draw so it could creep a point this year. If it does, you less than a 5% chance of drawing.

 

my unit 1 app with 23pts this year...maybe just gets another BP. this is gettin' old fast.

Thank You Flatlander!

 

lee

 

This is your year Lee! Don't lose faith!

[Flatlander]

  On 2/9/2016 at 6:39 PM, Norteno said:

After the fact but here are my choices. Thanks

 

Resident 7 bonus points

23N early archery

5BS early archery

1%. 10%