Titanium700 Report post Posted January 22, 2016 I think I see where I went wrong. I only looked at the 20% not the 1-2 pass Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Titanium700 Report post Posted January 22, 2016 I think I see where I went wrong. I only looked at the 20% not the 1-2 pass Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted January 23, 2016 Flatlander, Get the archery odds figured out yet? Just did. I will start answering those now. I don't have cow, muzzy or limited opp done but can answer those as we go since I get fewer requests for them. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted January 23, 2016 5BS bull elk with 7 points early archery. Thanks. 10% Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted January 23, 2016 Thank you for doing this again, i haven't decided yet if you don't mind i'll give my choices for first and second. 6 points 1st choice= unit 6b early archery - 72% 2nd choice= 5b south early archery - 9% or 1st choice= 27 early rifle - <1% 2nd choice= 22 north early archery. - 6% thank you Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted January 23, 2016 Unit 1 and 10 C.h.a.m.p. elk hunt with 3 points? I am not quite as dialed in on this cause I did not due a full table since this is probably the only request I will get for these hunts but a good estimate is 1 - 5%, 10 - 15% Since I am an estimator, I feel like you can probably rest easy that these are pretty close. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted January 23, 2016 Will 9 pts nonres get me any bull tags? Yeah it'll get you about 25% of the archery hunts, several late rifle and most of the late archery. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted January 23, 2016 3 points. first rifle bull hunt, 24A 3 points, second rifle bull hunt , 24A 5% 12% Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted January 23, 2016 5 points, eirly archery 4b and late rifle 22n. Thanks for all the work you put into doing this! 17%, 48%, 100% Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted January 23, 2016 There are 3 of us putting in on one application. 5,5 and 6 bonus points for unit 27 and 23 late rifle. I assume the fraction of a point will fall off because it is less than .5. Thanks 16%, 13% Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted January 23, 2016 Thanks for running this for all- 8 bonus points, early archery- Bull 27 and 5B 13% South, 100% North, 13% 27 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted January 23, 2016 Non resident 5 points archery sept hunt 1st choice 3a/3c 2nd choice 6a Thanks! I did not pull the non resident breakdowns this year because it requires a special request and I never got around to putting it in. But I very much doubt that 3a/3c had any NR tags left in the 1-2 pass last year. With that changing this year, you will have a chance, but I can't calculate it precisely. It will be SMALL. The resident chance was 6%, so figure about 10% of that to give you an idea. 6A historically does not fill the quota in the bonus pass, but that doesn't really matter anymore. The resident odds are 25%, yours will be less than that. However, the bonus pass was 6 for that unit last year so there is light at the end of the tunnel. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted January 23, 2016 2 youth...zero points (well 1 Hunter Ed each) and just want to hunt. Can't hunt the youth hunt due to family commitments that week. Best chance for a bull hunt? Best chance for cow? Sorry, but if I told you that here they wouldn't be the best odds anymore. Typically the hunts with the best odds tend to have smaller tag numbers, and weird seasons and dates. Youth hunts are actually not easier to draw. A few good options for you: 3B late muzzleloader bull hunts Late season rifle bull hunts for non premium units on the rim Cow hunts in the units you dont see talked about all the time. Be sure to check the success rates in the regs, you dont want a sucky hunt to start them out. Text me if you want more help. 480 266 4811 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted January 23, 2016 Flatlander Could you double check these for me please? Nonresident 9 bps All 2015 hunt numbers 3113 22s ml 3127 5bs a 3122 3b a 3128 6a a 3140 22 a 3123 4a a According to what I'm seeing I should have a very good chance of drawing at least 4 of those tags and a 50-60% on the other 2? Am I correct? Also any I should avoid or really try for? Thanks Seems about right to me. I would avoid hunts with a very small number of tags, Since now only 5% of the tags can go to NR in the bonus pass, you will kind of lose your benefit on the ones where the bonus pass line was right around 9. Try to pick a unit where the BP line was 7 or 8 for your best shot. I have hunted all of those units and I can say that 22s and 3b, get really small really fast with more limited habitat ranges that time of year. Everything else is pretty typical elk habitat. Oh, and I expect 22 to creep to 10 this year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted January 23, 2016 Flat lander, I would love to know if your statistical analysis would agree with what the draw odds app says. I am looking at 6a early archery resident with 6bp. This is what it tells me: Seems close. I came up with 22% vs. their 28%. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
