CouesFanatic Report post Posted December 22, 2015 Outside of the bonus point pass, does the second choice have equal chances to be selected as the first? Let's assume both first and second choices are hypothetically equal in number of tags and applicants. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DesertBull Report post Posted December 22, 2015 If your first choice draw odds are 10% and your second choice is 50% your overall odds of drawing a tag are 50% Your chance of drawing your first choice is 10% Your chance of drawing your second choice is 40% Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ohthatguy Report post Posted December 22, 2015 CouesFanatic, Your choices are not selected/drawn, your app is. If your app is drawn, they look at your 1st choice 1st, if no tags are left, then they look at your 2nd choice. At least that's how i understood it. If I'm wrong, someone please feel free to correct me. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DesertBull Report post Posted December 22, 2015 That is correct Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CouesFanatic Report post Posted December 23, 2015 Can you explain the math or why the second choice is not 50% on your explanation. Is it just the 50-10? If your app is drawn, how or why is the percentage of the second choice decreased? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DesertBull Report post Posted December 23, 2015 You have a 10% chance of drawing your first choice. 50-10 = 40 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CouesFanatic Report post Posted December 23, 2015 If they pull your application, the first choice is 10%. Lets say that is filled. They move to your second choice which is 50% odds. I get that. I still don't understand why the percentages are subtracted or why the second choice would be decreased. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Coues assassin Report post Posted December 23, 2015 How I understand it is that when your application is pulled you have a 10% chance that your first choice is still available and a 50% chance that your second choice is still available (in this example) I don't get the 10-40 either Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DesertBull Report post Posted December 23, 2015 Your overall odds are 50% (highest odds on your app) Because you have a 10% chance of drawing your first choice, which means 1 out of 10 times your app will never make to your second choice, Your chance of drawing the second choice instead of the first choice is 40%. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ThomC Report post Posted December 23, 2015 I am not a statistical expert but I think that you have 10% chance of getting drawn on the first choice and 50% on the second choice after not getting your first choice. To figure out what the chance of getting the second choice before you get rejected for the first choice is a formula that would take a lot figuring. It also depends on who gave you those percentages. But, it don't matter that much in whole scheme of life. IMHO Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wildwoody Report post Posted December 23, 2015 Oh man there never gonna get it !! Simple math Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CouesFanatic Report post Posted December 23, 2015 More like simple grammar woody! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DesertBull Report post Posted December 23, 2015 Maybe this will register If you have 5 beers and drink one how many are left? Disclaimer - if you have Coors Light you really don't have any beer at all. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CouesFanatic Report post Posted December 23, 2015 haha, in all seriousness it's not the 50-10 that is the question. It's why the subtraction when you have 10% odds and 50% odds. From what I understand if they pull you application they check both of your choices. 10% and 50%. If we go with the 10% chance and your second choice isn't even pulled idea, then it should be 10% less on the second choice. 45% odds on the second choice. 45% + 10%=55% Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
willhunt4coues Report post Posted December 28, 2015 What about the guys that put down lets say an example 24B late nov Coues 2nd choice or 3rd choice. Now I have seen this happen lots. They DONT get drawn for it and actually have left over tags on the list of left overs. I UNDERSTAND how the draw works but laugh that there are left over tags for a unit they put in for but did not get drawn. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
