CouesHunterAZ Report post Posted June 9, 2015 How are you guys able to figure out the exact odds of being drawn for each hunt? Is there an equation or stat sheet somewhere out there that I could look at? I put in around two weeks ago, and did mule deer hunt in 33 for first choice, and the nov 6-12 wt hunt in 33 for second. I have 1 bonus point, anyone know what my chances are or how I could configure my odds? Thanks Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bonecollector Report post Posted June 9, 2015 Just did a turkey bonus point just because. No problems whatsoever. T minus 7 hrs to procrastinator boo hoo fest. The deadline is 11:59 PM for this draw. First time they done this with the time. I dont think there will be an extension. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted June 9, 2015 I was referring to 5:00 when all the procrastinators get home from work and try to get their app in. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
3Coues3 Report post Posted June 10, 2015 How did he eliminate the chance of drawing his first choice? Isn't there still a chance that his number gets pulled and his first choice is still available? Or do I not understand the draw? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted June 10, 2015 You do not understand the draw. The first pass of the draw is executed by taking 20% of the tags for each hunt and distributing them to the applicants with the most bonus points. Once this pass is executed the remaining 80% of tags are distributed to applicants via the random number or "lottery" pass during which the first and second choice of each applicant is reviewed. This is referred to as the 1-2 pass. In this instance his 6 pts will put him in the bonus pass for the unit 23 hunt and not for the kaibab. Therefore he will be awarded a unit 23 tag before the 1-2 pass and will be unable to receive a kaibab tag. Clear as mud? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trphyhntr Report post Posted June 10, 2015 ^ I didn't even know any of that till after the deer draw last year. I wasted a few choices over the years I think Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Little Creek Calls Report post Posted June 10, 2015 I applied for a late Dec. whitetail tag first choice and wanted to apply for the end of Nov tag in the same unit as second choice but couldn't because with only 2 points I would make the bonus pass and not have a chance to draw the December tag. It is not a unit with leftovers so I had to decide before applying if I wanted a chance at drawing the December tag. I gambled and picked a different second choice. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Little Creek Calls Report post Posted June 10, 2015 One other thing to remember is the bonus pass for Bighorn Sheep is done with all applicants and hunts combined and not hunt by hunt because you can’t have 20% if only 1 or 2 permits are offered for a hunt. What this means is if you applied for unit 22 you just as well have just bought a bonus point because there are no tags offered in the 1-2 lottery drawing. All 4 permits are going to the 20% with the most bonus points. Some other of the most popular units fall into this same problem. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Explorer Report post Posted June 10, 2015 So if I put in for a december tag first choice and a october hunt second choice do I still have a chance at the 80% of tags left for the december hunt since I only have one bp? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
3Coues3 Report post Posted June 10, 2015 Thank you for explaining this to me. I typically put in for only late dec. hunts so this does not effect me but good to know for the future. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Little Creek Calls Report post Posted June 10, 2015 So if I put in for a december tag first choice and a october hunt second choice do I still have a chance at the 80% of tags left for the december hunt since I only have one bp? Depends on the unit you applied for. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Explorer Report post Posted June 10, 2015 17B both hunts. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Explorer Report post Posted June 10, 2015 I am sure that i will not get drawn for the october hunt in the first round. Wish I would have purchased bonus points all those Years I only bowhunted deer... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Little Creek Calls Report post Posted June 10, 2015 17B both hunts. With 1 point you will not make the bonus pass and have a chance at drawing 1st or 2nd choice. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
