Draw Questions

[AKretschmer]

http://ktar.com/335/1714457/The-Arizona-Big-Game-Draw-explained

[elkaholic]

there a 2 - guaranties with our draw system

 

your elated because it worked for you and your going hunting --

 

your pissed because its pink slip time agin!

[standman]

Courtesy of Matt Woodward

 

Demystifying the Arizona draw. the bonus point conspiracy

I just threw this together after this mornings discussions. Im sure it

has mistakes...so go easy. It's a little long...I'll convert it to PDF and

put it in the files if you guys would like. I'm going fishing...wail away!

I'll focus on Archery Elk; I know its on everyones mind.

In order to understand what Im saying you will have to have basic

understanding of the draw, and likely have done it in the past.

Every bit of this on the AZGFD website, in a lot more words, Im just

going to simplify it a bit, and give your some bullet points.

In order to not take credit for any of this info, Ill cite www.AZGFD.gov

and www.hunterstrailhead.com as the real source of all this

information.

Im not giving away anyones spots and will try to treat every unit the

same. The fact of the matter is, if people have a better understanding

of the system, it will help to evenly distribute Arizonas hunters over

units that better meet their needs and wants, increasing draw odds

for everyone.

Ill be using some ballet box type analogies, forgive me when I say

things throw your name in the box or in the hat, like a regular old

lottery drawing.

First Ill introduce some terminology and give you some definitions,

and basic rules, to have an understanding of the system.

- 20% of our tags are giving to hunters with MAX BONUS POINTS.

That means Max bonus points for THAT particular hunt. For example,

Max points on for Unit 13 Rifle deer is exactly that; its the maximum

number of points available, because everyone wants it. Max points

for unit 21 mule deer is a 3-point guaranteed tag. Max points for 6B

rifle deer is 4, while max points for Oct Coues in 36b is 0, while it will

take 4 points to get the second mule deer season! For the sake of

this article, well call these people that have the max points for their

particular hunt the MPBs.

- The draw is conducted in two passes the 1-2 pass, and 3,4,5

pass. This means they look at your first two choices, and if no tag is

available for you, they throw your name back in the box. AZs elk are

is such high demand that once they have looked over everyones 1-2

choice, there is usually not many tags left the 3,4,5 pass. If you

applying for bull elk in Arizona, there will be no tags available in the

second pass, so focus all your attention on your first two choices.

 

- Non-residents are limited to 10% of the tags, more on that later.

Here is a rough break down, with some totally fake numbers, to show

how it works. Ill do a second one to show how a high demand hunt

works.

FAKE EXAMPLE 1-medium demand hunt

Unit 99K has 500 mule deer tags for the November hunt, 20% of

those will go the MBPs. That means there are 100 tags for the

MBPs. The MPB threshold on that hunt last year was 7 points. There

were 68 guys with 7 points that applied for that hunt, all of them WILL

DRAW TAGS. Leaving 32 tags in the pool for MBPs. There are 105

guys that have 6 points. Those 105 guys will draw for those 32 tags;

give them a 30.4% chance of drawing a tag. Now all the MBP tags

are goneand there are 400 tags left. this 80% of the tags is

RANDOM DRAW. The rest of the guys at 6 points, and 5, and all the

way down, will draw these 400 tags on their RANDOM chances. You

can draw this tag on zero points, back to back, etc., its random, with a

high number of tags.

Fake Example 2-High demand hunt

Unit 88G has 100 trophy elk tags, where everybody gets to shoot a

400 bull

wink emoticon

.

The 20% of the 100 tags for the MBPs equal 20 tags. Max points are

21. There are 657 people at 21 points, all waiting this super duper

unit 88 tag! Those 20 tags will be drawn for by the 657 people! That

gives them a 3.04% chance of drawing! But dont fear, it gets better!

See, now there are only 637 guys next year at the 22-point mark!

Their odds will go all the way up to 3.139% next year! Better every

year! Slowly

You can still draw this tag with zero points (as a resident)! People

draw it back to back every year, some people earn it with max points,

and somewhere in the middle is all the crazy stories about your

uncles, buddies son in law that drew 3 times in a row!

The above example is also the definition of POINT CREEP. The max

points for any particular hunt will climb by one point each year that all

the MBPs are not purged from the system.

So, it happens on lesser in demand hunts too, you say? Youve been

watching favorite hunt climbyup, due the increasing number of hunters, and very close look at FAKE example 1, you can see it. One

year, we knock out all the MBPs, and still have tags in the pool, so a

percentage of the hunters one point lower draw tags in the MAX BP

pool, thus reducing the number of hunters in next year, and

continuing the spiral that climbs as fast as 1 point per year, or 1

slower, like a point every 2-4 years

The other 80 tags, will get randomly drawn by hunters with LESS than

max points, based on the number of points (chances) they have. 4

points, your name goes in the hat 4 times. This is how you explain

drawing that premium tag 2 times in a row. It happens all the time,

80% of our tags are just random!

Lets explore Arizonas Early Archery bull elk draw, and see where

you sit.

In 2014: If you had 16 points, you had 100% chance of drawing unit 9

Archery bull. At 15 points you were assured a unit 23S tag.

If you had 12, you could plan to take off work for the unit 1 hunt. 11

points would have bought you unit 27.

The poor guys at 10 points were assured to hunt 10,21,22 or 7W for

their archery bull.

9 pointers hunted 3b and 5bs last year.

8 pointers were chasing in 4A, 5A, 5BN, and 8.

6A, 6B, 4B, 11m, 7E, 15AB/18A could all be had with 7 bonus points,

or 5 years of waiting, with loyalty and hunter safety point. If you only

wanted to wait 4 years, you could have hunted the second season in

11M for 6 points.

I could break down more hunts, in more units, but you get the idea.

So, think about the above numbers for a minute. I hear every year I

have 15 bps and all I want to do is go on a decent elk hunt, wa wa

wa. Ill never draw

No, buddy, you dont want to go on an elk hunt, youve been applying

for Early rifle and muzz tags in premium units, and bucking 2% odds,

you are trying to go on the HIGHEST IN DEMAND ELK HUNTS IN

THE WORLD, the odds are terrible and always will be!

There so many great elk hunts in AZ that I hate to see guys get stuck

in the application rut for the early premium firearm hunts. If you know

what your up against and know the game, and are in it for the long

haul, that is AWESOME! But, its not for everyone. Some guys cant

figure out why they are not drawing, this for them. Those are trophy hunts, and should be treated as such.

The double up

Ill apply for a primo early rifle bull hunt 1st choice, and a cow hunt

second choice Since you are only likely to draw an elk tag (statically)

on your 1st or 2nd choice, this works as long as you dont want the

bonus points, youll be bucking that low odd each year, and draw your

cow tags every couple years, but you odds for the premium bull hunt

will not go up, ever. Simply a choice, Wait, elk hunt, or somewhere in

the middle.

The non-resident catch!

We call these guys fee donors. A maximum of 10% of our tags are

available to Non-resident of Arizona. Jump back up to FAKE

EXAMPLE 2, and you see that equals 10 tags for the out-of-towners.

A quick look at the MBPs tells you that 40 hunters at MBP applied for

this hunt, and 10 of them drew tags in the max pool. That is ALL OF

THE NON RES TAGS. There are NONE left for that hunt. AZ

residents will draw the other 80 randoms.

So, any non res hunter, that did not have the absolute max points,

applied for a tag that didnt exist, with a 0% chance of getting a tag.

There are a surprising number of non-res hunters in this situation.

Applying diligently each year, donating their fees, for tags that DO

NOT EXIST. They have been eaten up by the 10% non-res cap in the

MAX POOL.

Side note.. Most all of our high demand hunts reach the 10% non-res

cap, the vast majority of AZs hunts do not, and tend to hover around

7-8% non-resident hunters, per past stats.

[GreyGhost85]

That is a great write up. draw system explained again. I'll go ahead and save jhedg the work of posting. "But what about not being drawn for a hunt with leftover tags?"

[Flingingarrowsbro]

Not being drawn for a hunt with leftover tags is error by the applicant. either you put the wrong hunt number, ss# or wrote your name where it was impossible to read, left out a box etc..... I know people hate to say they made a mistake that's the only way this can happen. My favorite is when someone gets a hit for an elk tag and only put in for bull but end up receiving a cow tag. They eventually realize they are much dumber than they maybe first admitted lol

[GreyGhost85]

there was a change in hunt numbers for colorado elk this year. it caused many people with 15-20 bp to apply for cow hunts with left over permits. luckily in colorado, people can give their tag back without being penalized. i could not imagine the outcry that it would cause here where you don't have that luxury.

[Flingingarrowsbro]

I had a buddy draw on accident a cow tag with 9 points. Right when he submitted online he knew he made a mistake, called azgfd and they wouldn't let him change it. worst nightmare ever

[GreyGhost85]

my friends from colorado burned 11 bp on a late bull tag here in AZ they could have had with 7. called G&F immediately, same story.

[knothead]

I made a mistake one time applying for a hunt that could easily be drawn with 2 or 3 points. I believe I had 7 or 8 points at the time. Still chaps my azz when I think about it. That is the main reason I am a supporter of turning in tags to gets points back. Mistakes happen and so does life. We should be allowed at least one mulligan in this game we call hunting in Arizona.

[PhxDT]

I hear that, but how long did it take to get the results because they needed to manually call back everyone whose credit card info was wrong? More delays if you turned in your tags. There is going to be mistakes- can't be perfect.

 

Part of the charm and excitement.

 

Oh, and Dez Bryant caught that ball.