JACK Report post Posted May 17, 2007 O.K. so here is the deal... I am no mathimatical genius but I was checkin out the hunt draw odds and all that stuff and I noticed this: The 36C carp deer hunt (don't ask why I was lookin at this) 11/3-11/12 - 100 tags avaliable - 405 people applied 1st or 2nd choice and the G$F say the draw odds are 41 PERCENT please tell me how this is freakin' possible...shouldn't it be more like 25 percent? Please tell me everything I learned in kindergarden wasn't a waste of time! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
elkhunter Report post Posted May 17, 2007 I saw the same thing, so I thought maybe they're only telling the draw rate of 1st choice applicants, not both 1st and 2nd choice...only thing i can think of now Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ultramag Report post Posted May 17, 2007 when the g&f posts draw odds they refer to first and second choice. So if you have been drawn for your first choice they still count your second choice in the odds, Though you could already have a tag. Sometimes I think the odds are better than whats posted on g&f stats. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dave Report post Posted May 17, 2007 Now I am really confused. I am going to go get the spanish version of the regs. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ultramag Report post Posted May 17, 2007 Now I am really confused. I am going to go get the spanish version of the regs. 1= When you put in you have 4 choices 2= the first draw they go only your first 2 choices 3= say you draw your first choice 4= your second choice still shows up on the stats even though you have a tag 5=thats how the odds look so out of whack Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Red Rabbit Report post Posted May 17, 2007 The 405 is the total number of first and second choice applicants. The draw odds published in the regs are based on only the first choice applicants drawn. Yes, the draw odds for 1st and 2nd choice applicants combined is 24.69% Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
111 Report post Posted May 17, 2007 Doug, and Ultramag your right on how you described it I believe. I took the total permits issued divided by first choice apps, and always came up with a 1-3% higher draw odds than what was posted in the book. I tried to figure out why... For example unit 5 mule deer in 2006... (450) permits....(2,816) 1st choice....(2,573) 2nd choice....(5,389) total apps.=13.0% draw odds by how the book describes. Going off 1st choice only 450/2,816= 15.9% draw odds..the 15.9% should be posted in the book instead of the 13.0% you would think...But then the second choice is factored in also, which is why the book is correct at 13.0% draw odds. So to get a 13.0% draw odds like posted in the book it took 450/3,461= 13.0%. Now I get confused..So now to total apps 5,389-3,461= 1,928. Were the 1,928 not counted in the odds out of the origianl 5,389 total apps posted in the book? Were these 1,928 all second choice that drew a different unit as there first choice, which therefore didn't effect the odds in unit 5? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kwp Report post Posted May 17, 2007 I've always thought that it was like you said 111 with those 2nd choice applicants who got drawn for their 1st choice being taken out becuase they are no longer a part of the sample. This is how I think it happened for 36C carp that JACK mentioned. 100 tags 405 1st and 2nd choice applicants of the original 405, 161 were 2nd choice applicants that got drawn for their 1st choice bringing the net number of 1st and 2nd choice applicants to 244 100 tags / 244 applicants = 41% this is all speculation and I have no idea how G&F actually comes up with their number. This is the way that seems logical to me so I am sure that G&F does something else that isn't logical Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ROBERT RIVERA Report post Posted May 17, 2007 Trying to figue out g&f is like trying to understand women Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bowsniper Report post Posted May 17, 2007 ...........so I am sure that G&F does something else that isn't logical How could that be????!!!!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
.270 Report post Posted May 17, 2007 they use the same math they use to figure the buck/doe ratio and to figure out how many permits to let out for a unit or season. the first part of each equation is always $$$$. you notice how the warden that was so talkative on the coues biology thread never answered when i asked him how they arrived at their numbers? don't ever think that the azgfd puts any wisdom, knowledge, intelligence or science in anything they do. if they did they would never print something like that. i'm sure it has something to do with first and second choice applications and some other beancounter methods, but in the end, it don't add up like real mathmatics. Lark. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Diamondbackaz Report post Posted May 18, 2007 they use the same math they use to figure the buck/doe ratio and to figure out how many permits to let out for a unit or season. the first part of each equation is always $$$$. you notice how the warden that was so talkative on the coues biology thread never answered when i asked him how they arrived at their numbers? don't ever think that the azgfd puts any wisdom, knowledge, intelligence or science in anything they do. if they did they would never print something like that. i'm sure it has something to do with first and second choice applications and some other beancounter methods, but in the end, it don't add up like real mathmatics. Lark. I wouldn't have answered your question either when you keep using that stupid redneck writing. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dave Report post Posted May 18, 2007 We really do need to evaluate our language here. If you speak Espanola, you get your own regs printed especially for you. If you speak redneck, you get a lot of spit handed to you from the ones hiring the Espanola’s that are so proper and well educated. You are told you are stupid in so many words. Interesting Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Coues79 Report post Posted May 18, 2007 they use the same math they use to figure the buck/doe ratio and to figure out how many permits to let out for a unit or season. the first part of each equation is always $$$$. you notice how the warden that was so talkative on the coues biology thread never answered when i asked him how they arrived at their numbers? don't ever think that the azgfd puts any wisdom, knowledge, intelligence or science in anything they do. if they did they would never print something like that. i'm sure it has something to do with first and second choice applications and some other beancounter methods, but in the end, it don't add up like real mathmatics. Lark. I wouldn't have answered your question either when you keep using that stupid redneck writing. I kinda like the ol' redneck talk. Brings back some good memries from down south in good ol' Alabammy. Oh yeah Lark, I have noticed that post to that thread. Matter of fact, that post is the first thing I look at every day. Just wonderin' if there would ever be an answer. Guess not. I imagine we will get him back some time around the next posting of the draw results. Once everyone is really pissed off again. All things aside, he really does seem like a pretty good ol' boy though. But I get yer' drift. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
.270 Report post Posted May 21, 2007 i guess some folks are a little to highbrow for reasonable queries. hey little cochran, how's your ol' man anyway? sorry i offended ya diamondback. maybe we'll meet someday and you can tell me how stupid i am to my face. then you can tell all your friends that some dumb redneck brokened yer jaw fer ya. . Lark. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
