Elk & Antelope Draw Odds

[buckmaster21]

And 11m archery bull 2bps thanks for all of your help with this

[Antmo23]

Resident elk #3112 & 3139, 3 bp. Also, non-res 3125 & 3003 with 5 BP. Thanks FlatLander!

[Jdubbs07]

Thanks for all the help you give Flatlander.

 

2 resident applicants 4bp each. Early archery bull unit 1 and 4a

 

1 resident applicant 4bp rifle antelope unit 4a and archery antelope 4a

 

1 resident applicant 20bp unit 10 rifle antelope

 

1 non-resident applicant 4bp early archery bull unit 9 and 4a

 

Thanks again!!!!

[sandman38y]

Thank you Flatlander for sharring this info, I was able to find my hunts/bp by reading through the previous posts, can you tell me what is the magic number of bonous points for early archery bull in unit 8 and unit 3a/3c. thx again

[MULEPACKHUNTER]

Thanks a bunch buddy, early rifle unit 27 16 bp resident

[lynntelk]

How about a NR going into 2015 with 21 points applying for a 2015 Elk 3109 and 3005. I was a much younger man when I started this process. Thanks in advance.

[SwampMafia]

I got a math problem for ya if you can do it.. I want you to tell me the chances That one person will draw out of 4 applications we have.

 

Person 1 5bp

3a3c early arch

7w late rifle

 

Person 2 5bp

3a3c early arch

5b late rifle

 

Person 3 4bp

3a3c early arch

23 late rifle

 

Person 4 1bp

6a late rifle

5b late rifle

 

If there's any way to calculate the chances that ONE of us will draw is really appreciate it. If not don't worry about it I already have individual odds. Thanks for your service to cwt

[onlycoues4me]

Resident w/ 14 Pts.

Hunt #s 3001 and 3120

 

 

Thank you for your all your time.

[Flatlander]

Jr. 22 cow elk (2pts) 27%

Jr. 23 cow elk (2pts) 19%

 

Love this thread. Great info! Thanks!!!!

 

Adam

3 applicants

2 have 2 bonus points and the other has 1

All putting in on the same app and all are residents.

 

1st - late rifle bull 6A 8%

2nd - early archery bull 5BN 8%

 

 

 

Forgive me if this has been posted but rifle antelope 4b with 10 points and archery bull 8 and 6a with 3 points

2%, 10%, 17%

 

Unit 21 rifle antilope 10 bps

2%

 

And 11m archery bull 2bps - 8%, 12%

 

Resident elk #3112 & 3139, 3 bp. 7% 1% Also, non-res 3125 & 3003 with 5 BP 0% All the NR tags were gone in the bonus pass for those hunts. Forget about that 23 Early Rifle tag as a NR if you have fewer than 21 pts. With only 1 NR tag inthat unit, you're simply donating your app fee.

 

2 resident applicants 4bp each. Early archery bull unit 1 and 4a 5% 10%

1 resident applicant 4bp rifle antelope unit 4a and archery antelope 4a 2%, 4%

 

1 resident applicant 20bp unit 10 rifle antelope 3%

 

1 non-resident applicant 4bp early archery bull unit 9 and 4a 0% in unit 9,the NR quota is met in the bonus pass 4A is 10%

 

Thank you Flatlander for sharring this info, I was able to find my hunts/bp by reading through the previous posts, can you tell me what is the magic number of bonous points for early archery bull in unit 8 and unit 3a/3c. thx again 9 and 11

 

early rifle unit 27 16 bp resident Probably about 2%, that is two off the bonus pass. There wasn't a hunt there last year so I have to project a little bit.

 

How about a NR going into 2015 with 21 points applying for a 2015 Elk 3109 and 3005. I assume these are 2015 hunt numbers because last year 3109 was a late hunt. I think you are probably golden on either hunt, depending on where those NR max point holders apply. But last year 21 did the trick in unit 10 early rifle, and with 10 NR tags, its your best choice of a NR tag getting past the max pool. Also, be careful with that unit 9 ML hunt. They moved it up 3 weeks and its going to be more pre-rut than past years.

 

Person 1 5bp

3a3c early arch 8%

7w late rifle 44% be careful if you want that archery tag, you could draw late rifle inthe bonus pass and never even have your first choice considered.

 

Person 2 5bp

3a3c early arch 8%

5b late rifle 16%

 

Person 3 4bp

3a3c early arch <8%

23 late rifle 56%

 

Person 4 1bp

6a late rifle 5%

5b late rifle 5%

 

Someone in that should grab a tag, but I can't stop doing odds for others to run the total probability on that one, sorry.

 

Resident w/ 14 Pts.

Hunt #s 3001 and 3120 2%, 100%

[Flatlander]

A couple quick notes to folks who are looking for folks who are posting:

 

1.IF USING HUNT NUMBERS BE SURE THEY ARE 2014 HUNT NUMBERS.

2. If you have fewer than 15 bonus points, your odds for rifle antelope are <6% regardless of which hunt you are applying for.

3. If you have fewer than 10 bonus points, your odds for early rifle bull (not limited opp.) are <3%

4. Please denote early or late when referencing archery hunts, if not noted I am assuming early.

 

Good luck everybody and keep them coming.

[jgraffaz]

Unit 21 archery antelope resident 2 pts

[Cage]

Early Archery 9 Bull Res 11BP

 

THANKS!!!!!!!!!!

[Big Browns]

Let's simplify this:

 

NOT DRAWN FOR ELK

NOT DRAWN FOR ANTELOPE

[lancetkenyon]

Buckmaster21....see the post right above yours......I would think about a .2% chance for you. But again, I met a youth and a lady who drew a tag with very few points.

[AZ RANGER]

2 residents applying together. One with 8 points the other with 2

 

Early archery unit 1 bull

Early archery unit 27 bull

 

My son with 3 points

General rifle bull hunt November. Unit 27

Youth cow hunt unit 1

 

Thanks!