Elk & Antelope Draw Odds

[Flatlander]

Hey Flatlander, quick question. Last night I was explaining to my dad about how the bonus pass works and was going through the draw report showing him the numbers because he had never seen it. He has 6 elk points and is thinking of going for 4b early archery which from looking at the bonus report he would be right on the verge of being guaranteed that tag right? Looks like 6 points last year some guys drew in the bonus pass. Second question is when I look at the bonus pass for 23n early archery last year some guy with 20 points drew then it appears that a guy with 18 points got skipped and then three guys with 16 points got skipped and then 2 guys with 15 put in as their first choice and only one drew and the last bonus pass tag went to a guy with 14 points. How in the world does that happen?

The guy w/20 pts was a NR and there is only 1 NR tag available for that hunt. So the next two tags went to residents w/the most pts.

[kennyazman]

 

Hey Flatlander, quick question. Last night I was explaining to my dad about how the bonus pass works and was going through the draw report showing him the numbers because he had never seen it. He has 6 elk points and is thinking of going for 4b early archery which from looking at the bonus report he would be right on the verge of being guaranteed that tag right? Looks like 6 points last year some guys drew in the bonus pass. Second question is when I look at the bonus pass for 23n early archery last year some guy with 20 points drew then it appears that a guy with 18 points got skipped and then three guys with 16 points got skipped and then 2 guys with 15 put in as their first choice and only one drew and the last bonus pass tag went to a guy with 14 points. How in the world does that happen?

The guy w/20 pts was a NR and there is only 1 NR tag available for that hunt. So the next two tags went to residents w/the most pts.

I think also that some of those guys probably drew their other choice.

[bonecollector777]

I thought the same thing but then looking at it all those guys I mentioned had 23n as their first choice. That's why it didn't make sense. I guess if those guys had a second choice that put them in the bonus pass for that second choice they may have drawn that before they even had a chance at getting their first choice. But the out of state part makes sense if most of those guys with high bonus points were NR so they never had a chance after the guy with 20 drew it. Lots of different factors I guess! Confusing stuff. .

[jim]

If info is available. What units does the non resident numbers get met in the bonus pass for early archery bull? Thank you

[Beaner]

Resident 21 points antelope unit 10, 5b, or 4a.....rifle?

 

......and out of curiousity, 2 pts 4a archery bull elk.

 

Thanks

[Steve O]

Non Resident 11 points Early Archery Bull Elk

 

Unit 1

Unit 27

Unit 3a/c

 

Thank you.

[Flatlander]

Resident 21 points antelope unit 10, 5b, or 4a.....rifle?

 

......and out of curiousity, 2 pts 4a archery bull elk.

 

Thanks

3%, 1%, 2%, stick it out another 2-3 years you should have that unit 10 tag.

6% on the elk tag

 

 

Non Resident 11 points Early Archery Bull Elk

 

Unit 1

Unit 27

Unit 3a/c

 

Thank you.

You will be 50/50 on 3A/3C or 27. Unit one is going to be hit or miss with the number of NR applying ahead of you and only a few of the guys with 11 pts drawing, I am putting it around 20%. Another year though should do the trick.

[elkczun]

3 bonus points ELK

 

Unit 23 S. 3008

Unit 23 N. 3007

[Flatlander]

3 bonus points ELK

 

Unit 23 S. 3008

Unit 23 N. 3007

Slim to none

<1% on either

[SEAZCoues]

For my grandfather and my gf

 

Resident 2 points 1 applicant

5a late rifle bull

5b south cow

6a cow October cow

5a cow

 

And

 

Resident 2 points 1 applicant

4a limited opportunity cow aug 8th hunt

22n October cow

22s October cow

 

Thanks!

[3Coues3]

Resident

Antelope 16 points

1.)Rifle Unit 1

2.) Muzzy Unit 8

 

Elk 3 points

1.) Muzzy cow sept. Unit 8

2. Muzzy bull nov. Unit 3b

 

thank you!

[MULEPACKHUNTER]

Hey flat one more please, resident unit 8 hunt 3047 2 points cow December 1st choice

[Becker]

Ok. One for me I'm curious

 

Resident 8 points

27 early muzzleloader 1st choice

27 late rifle 2nd choice

 

Thx

[bonecollector777]

Ok. One for me I'm curious

 

Resident 8 points

27 early muzzleloader 1st choice

27 late rifle 2nd choice

 

Thx

I don't know exact odds for the muzzleloader but looking at the report if you put 27 late as 2nd choice with 8 points you will get that tag in the bonus pass for sure. Won't ever have a chance at the muzzy tag.

[Flatlander]

It never fails, always a few guys waiting till the last minute. Good luck fella's, I hope the website holds up for ya.

For my grandfather and my gf

Resident 2 points 1 applicant
5a late rifle bull
5b south cow
6a cow October cow
5a cow

And

Resident 2 points 1 applicant
4a limited opportunity cow aug 8th hunt
22n October cow
22s October cow

Thanks!

16%, 9%, 8%, 8%

 

100%, 20%, 16%

 

Resident

Antelope 16 points

1.)Rifle Unit 1

2.) Muzzy Unit 8

 

Elk 3 points

1.) Muzzy cow sept. Unit 8

2. Muzzy bull nov. Unit 3b

 

thank you!

1%, 6%

29%, 33%

 

Hey flat one more please, resident unit 8 hunt 3047 2 points cow December 1st choice

32%

 

Ok. One for me I'm curious

Resident 8 points
27 early muzzleloader 1st choice
27 late rifle 2nd choice

Thx

Yup, if you apply in that order you are going hunting in November.

 

Good luck folks, and may the odds be ever in your favor.