Elk & Antelope Draw Odds

[Little Creek Calls]

 

 

What about 1 resident applicant with 14 points for 1st choice is early rifle 10 and 2nd in early rifle 22N.

 

and 2 resident applicants with 6 points each for lope, 1st choice is 4a rifle and 2nd is 5a rifle.

 

the last is 1 resident applicant with 3 points, 1st choice 4a JR elk and 2nd choice 6a JR elk.

 

Thanks for all your devotion to helping and/or cranking up the nerves of anxious elk/lope hunters!

4% For each early elk hunt

1% for lope

15% and 24% for the jr's tags

 

 

Really? only 4% for the early rifle bull with 14 points? I dont know anyone with that many points that has been putting in

 

 

For the early rifle hunt in 10 last year 4 applicants had 20 points, 10 had 19 points, 39 had 18 points, 45 had 17 points, 61 had 16 points, 65 had 15 points, 72 had 14 points and 103 people had 13 points just like you last year. There are only 20 tags for the bonus pass so I only see the bonus pass number creeping up by the time you get there. Last year and this year the 100% draw odds bonus pass number should be 19 points.

 

22 N looks a little better as far as the number of applicants in front of you so the bonus pass shouldn’t creep up by the time you get there but there are only 6 bonus pass tags. It should still be 18 points with 2 tags going to 17 point holders this year if the trend continues.

[Grumpy]

17bp unit 9 early muz loader

Thanks for the help

Grumpy

[Flatlander]

Can you check this one for me please?

 

4 hunters, Resident late rifle cow. 7e

 

3 bp

68%

 

Flatlander,

 

5bP resident early archery bull 6A first choice and 22N late rifle bull (thanksgiving hunt) second. 1 applicant...... thanks in advance

You will draw the late rifle tag.

 

Resident 11 BP

Elk

1.)Unit 1 early rifle bull

2.)Unit 1 early archery bull

Thanks!!!

1% and about 40%

[jeremiahjohnson]

Hey flatlander,

Im a non res with 11bp, trying for a muzzy taag early in 27 or 22s. Thank you and donation coming.

[kyle44k]

Hey flatlander just curious now me and my brother out in together. He has 9pts I have 4pts residents. Early archery bull 27. And early archery 4a thank you very much

[Toph79]

5bs non res 6 pts early archery bull with 3 hunters

[Sea 2'er]

Would be interesting to hear how everyone did based on this years draw and 'expected' odds. Looks as though most folks csshed in their points this year.

[AZHog]

Would be interesting to hear how everyone did based on this years draw and 'expected' odds. Looks as though most folks csshed in their points this year.

We had better than a 50/50 chance of being drawn. Here were our odds:

 

All are for resident, 2 points, rifle, unit 9 Elk:

1. Early rifle cow 23%

2. Late rifle cow 54%

 

Unfortunately, we haven't been drawn...yet. Still holding out a sliver of hope.

[eltaco]

NR, 5pts, early archery bull

 

1: 5BS

2: 6B

 

Looks as though I've drawn, and I have to assume I drew my 2nd choice since it's clearly the easier draw. That said, I understand the draw process really well, just don't know where you are retrieve the Resident/NR applicant numbers to come up with the odds. I know how many NR tags were remaining after last seasons' bonus pass, but not sure how you're getting to the simple odds beyond that point. Seems as though any early archery bull tag is a needle in a haystack beyond the bonus pass, for a NR. I tried to at least give myself a chance at drawing this year, and looks as though it paid off... very curious exactly how fortunate I've been!

I know neither are top-tier tags, but I'm very excited to get out there and experience AZ this year as it will help direct my draw decisions in your beautiful state going forward!

[rugerman]

rugerman, on 05 Jan 2015 - 6:52 PM, said:

Thanks for cipherin' this for me. I have My odds at almost none to real slim.
18 pts resident unit 1 early rifle bull-unit 27 muzzy

Ooh, its going o be close. On the rifle hunt I say probably about 10%, and the muzzy hunt is probably a little better, last time the ML hunt was in 27 17 bp did it, but that was two years ago. I think you are going to be close, but if you move West one unit, you have yourself a tag.

I did draw the muzzy tag #6. So 18 pts was in the bonus. My wife drew tag #29 for the same hunt, lucky gal!

[dunns7]

I drew a 6A tag with 3 points as a non-res early archery. Can you tell me what the chances were. Also, will that be about the same chances as next year if the tag numbers stay the same...etc.

 

Thank You!

 

I am new to this site but man it has been a breath of fresh air compared to some others.

[Big Browns]

I can already tell you that your chance of drawing was 1% or less. Your chance of drawing again next year will be the same! Bottom line is, you got LUCKY! That's the beauty and devil of our system. In the random draw anyone has a chance. Congrats and enjoy your hunt!

[fdh88]

I really paid attention to draw odds when putting in for elk. I was lucky to draw cow in unit 8 with 1 bonus point, 47% odds. My husband got archery bull in 5BN for the 2nd year in a row so obviously zero bonus points and 18% odds.

[Huntmoore]

I can already tell you that your chance of drawing was 1% or less. Your chance of drawing again next year will be the same! Bottom line is, you got LUCKY! That's the beauty and devil of our system. In the random draw anyone has a chance. Congrats and enjoy your hunt!

Amen! I drew the early rifle 23N tag in 2013 with 4 BPs....the next year my cousin drew early rifle 23 with 0bps. Astronomical odds, but I like living in a place where that's possible...

[naturebob]

Some folks with few points get lucky, but for cow hunts if u really wanna hunt study the odds ,then do your home work scouting. Like I am a good example, only 20 points to draw my tag. 3rd AZ. tag in 25 years. first time cow first year, drew. 2 years later drew early rifle bull in unit 1. now I waited 19 years ,so I think it averages out over your life time........BOB!