Elk & Antelope Draw Odds

[azelkhunter69]

Not sure if this is was covered

3pts NR unit 8 early archery 1&2

unit 8 late archery 3,4,5

 

my dad 4pts resident unit 8 late rifle 1&2

unit 8 late archery 3,4,5

 

thanks in advance flatlander

You are putting the same hunt for choice 1 AND 2? Just so you know, that makes no sense. If there are no tags for your 1st choice they go to your 2nd choice. If your 2nd choice is the same as your 1st, there are still no tags left. The same applies for 3,4,5. If there are no tags left for your 3rd choice, there are no tags left in the 4th and 5th rounds either...if you put down the same hunt #. All the unit 8 late archery tags are gone in the 1,2 round so you won't have a chance in the 3rd round. You should be putting the early archery 1st choice and late archery 2nd choice or in your dad's case, rifle 1st and late archery 2nd.

[HuntHarder]

The reason some guys put the same # for the 1st and 2nd, is because that is the hunt they want, and maybe their 3rd choice falls in the BP phase. If their 3rd falls in bonus point, and their 1st. doesn't, then their 1st would not even be looked at had he of put it down as his second choice. By putting it as 3rd, it is not considered in the bonus point pass. In the rare event, their are left over tags from the 1st and 2nd pass, he still has a chance at drawing it on the 3,4,5 pass. Hopefully this makes sense.

[Coues79]

 

 

Not sure if this is was covered

3pts NR unit 8 early archery 1&2

unit 8 late archery 3,4,5

 

my dad 4pts resident unit 8 late rifle 1&2

unit 8 late archery 3,4,5

 

thanks in advance flatlander

You are putting the same hunt for choice 1 AND 2? Just so you know, that makes no sense. If there are no tags for your 1st choice they go to your 2nd choice. If your 2nd choice is the same as your 1st, there are still no tags left. The same applies for 3,4,5. If there are no tags left for your 3rd choice, there are no tags left in the 4th and 5th rounds either...if you put down the same hunt #. All the unit 8 late archery tags are gone in the 1,2 round so you won't have a chance in the 3rd round. You should be putting the early archery 1st choice and late archery 2nd choice or in your dad's case, rifle 1st and late archery 2nd.

His case makes perfect sense. He doesn't want to be considered for the bonus point pass for the late archery hunt. If 3 points puts him in the 1-2 choice bonus pass for late archery, he would never have a chance to even draw the early hunt. The only fail safe way for him to go into the normal draw after the 1-2 bonus pass is to do that. It may be the only chance he has to draw an early hunt. This is the same for both cases he presents.

[bonecollector777]

It still doesn't make sense for him to put it as 1st and 2nd choice. Him putting it as his first choice is all he needs. Unless there is a rule against putting a 1st choice then skipping 2nd choice and then putting a 3rd choice.

[goinhuntn]

Hey guys I only wanted to know what our odds were. Not to be a jerk, but really not interested in anyones opinion of our choices!

[bonecollector777]

Hey guys I only wanted to know what our odds were. Not to be a jerk, but really not interested in anyones opinion of our choices!

Not to be a jerk either, but we don't care. Just telling you putting the same choice first and second is pointless.

[Flatlander]

Haha that's funny. Some people think that different random numbers are assigned to your first choice and second choice. What I've read does not state that, but some of the people who believe this are pretty savy so they may know something I do not.

Anyway, you probably won't have much shot at unit 8 as a NR without hitting the bonus pass.

[naturebob]

Can't believe 16 pages of hunters can't figure out their own odds. That tells me there are alot of dumb hunters which is good. That means they are probly not to smart of a hunter either ,and that leaves more animals for the rest of us. just a thought. Flatlander must be a good dude helpin Yal'l. Not callin everyone dumb, just sayin, God ,look into what your puttin in for if your not sure......BOB!

[HuntHarder]

goinhuntn- NR can not draw a tag for early archery in 8 unless they are in the bonus point pass. Over the last 5 years, the bonus point pass has been 8-9 points. All non-res tags are allocated thru the bonus pass for early archery in this unit. As far as late archery, I doubt there will ever be any left over permits for 8 after bonus and 1-2 pass, so NR have 0% chance of drawing in your first scenario.

 

your dad- had about a 22% chance of drawing the late rifle bull hunt in 8 last year. So should be close to that again this year. Again, probably no left overs to consider his 3rd, 4th and 5th.

[huntermncb]

Was checking to see if you had got my pm?

[huntermncb]

Was checking to see if you had got my pm?

[Flatlander]

Archery elk

9/11-9/24

3 bonus points

4A north

Resident

1 applicant!

I assume you mean 4A and not 4A North. Unit 4AN is a limited opp unit and there is no archery hunt designated for it but the 4A hunt includes the whole unit so would be included. I also assume you mean bull, although you did not say that. 8%

[Flatlander]

Rifle Elk Unit 7w 6 Bonus points 11/27?

100%

[Flatlander]

Flatlander,

 

Resident 16 points going into Elk draw, applied for Unit 1 early rifle and Unit 3c early rifle.

 

Resident 11 points going into Antelope draw, unit 10 rifle.

 

Thanks for your time.

For elk you are going to have somewhere around 2% at each of those hunts, but if you stick with it and tag numbers hold steady, you should hit the bonus pass in the next 5-6 years.

 

For antelope you are 1.5%, you aren't ever catching that bonus pass, so hope you get lucky or switch to archery.

[Flatlander]

What about 1 resident applicant with 14 points for 1st choice is early rifle 10 and 2nd in early rifle 22N.

 

and 2 resident applicants with 6 points each for lope, 1st choice is 4a rifle and 2nd is 5a rifle.

 

the last is 1 resident applicant with 3 points, 1st choice 4a JR elk and 2nd choice 6a JR elk.

 

Thanks for all your devotion to helping and/or cranking up the nerves of anxious elk/lope hunters!

4% For each early elk hunt

1% for lope

15% and 24% for the jr's tags