Elk & Antelope Draw Odds

[Flatlander]

Antelope unit 7 and unit 9 general, 2 residents 22 pts and 19 pts. Thanks Dan

Last year 40% of the guys with 22 pts drew unit 9. The trouble is that 12 of them didn't. So expect that hunt to creep a point this year, putting your odds back at 2%. Unit 7 had 4 guys bump up to 23 pts, so with 9 bonus pas tags, there is a chance you can get in there. Your problem is going to be applying together makes the last bonus pass tag unavailable to you, because if you one of you were selected for it, there would not be a tag for the second applicant. You may consider applying seperately to cut your wait down.

 

Unit 6A, 11-24 Sept, archery elk, 1 bp, resident.

Unit 22N, 13-26 Nov, archery elk, 1 bp, resident.

 

Thank you, sir.

8%

100%

[bambam2u]

Oct 9-15 rifle cow elk. 5bn 11pts 3 applicants. Thanks in advance

[trphyhntr]

hunt # 3120 3 points

[Adicted]

Elk 14 points

 

Unit 10 early rifle bull 9/25-10/1

Unit 21 muzzleloader

 

Antelope 12 points

Unit 6b south rifle

Unit 19a muzzleloader

 

Thx flatlander

[Flingingarrowsbro]

Resident , 9 bonus points, early archery 1 and 27

[turkeyneck]

Resident elk, early rifle, unit 1, 18 points?

Non-resident elk, early rifle, unit 1 and second choice early archery, unit 1, 19 points?

Resident antelope, rifle, unit 5A first, second 4A, 21 points?

How many more years would the non-resident have to wait to obtain a rifle/mz tag for the early hunt in unit 1?

Thanks.

[Heinz57]

Elk, 3BP, Resident, 1 Applicant

Unit 10 Early Archery (#3132)

Unit 8 Early Archery (#3130)

Unit 7W Early Archery (#3129)

 

Thanks a lot Flatlander!

[mikaele]

Early Archery Elk 2 Residents 3BP and 7BP, group application.

 

1st and 2nd Choice 3A/3C

 

Thanks!!

[SEAZCoues]

3a 3c early archery bull resident 6 points

 

And

 

22n OCT rifle cow resident 4 points

[Flatlander]

Oct 9-15 rifle cow elk. 5bn 11pts 3 applicants. Thanks in advance

I assume this means 11 total Bonus points for the group and not an average of 11. If this is the case 20%. If you have an average of 11 pts go apply for an archery bull tag.

 

hunt # 3120 3 points

9% or you could go one unit west for a bump to 12%

 

Elk 14 points

 

Unit 10 early rifle bull 9/25-10/1

Unit 21 muzzleloader

 

Antelope 12 points

Unit 6b south rifle

Unit 19a muzzleloader

 

Thx flatlander

4%, 7%

4%, 4%

 

Resident , 9 bonus points, early archery 1 and 27

11%, 15%

 

Resident elk, early rifle, unit 1, 18 points?

Non-resident elk, early rifle, unit 1 and second choice early archery, unit 1, 19 points?

Resident antelope, rifle, unit 5A first, second 4A, 21 points?

How many more years would the non-resident have to wait to obtain a rifle/mz tag for the early hunt in unit 1?

Thanks.

Probably 1%, this unit has crept a point pretty much every year. At 18 pts you have some options, but Unit 1 isn't really a high probability one.

I would say you are about 50/50 on the rifle hunt and 100% on the archery.

2%, 10%

Right now 19 bp will put him in the bonus pass and last year for the 27 hunt early rifle hunt there were no 20 BP applicants, so he's got a chance at tags before the quota are met already. Stickit out another year or two and it should happen. On a year when the ML tag rolls around that will get even better.

 

Elk, 3BP, Resident, 1 Applicant

Unit 10 Early Archery (#3132)

Unit 8 Early Archery (#3130)

Unit 7W Early Archery (#3129)

 

Thanks a lot Flatlander!

7%, 10%, 6%

 

Early Archery Elk 2 Residents 3BP and 7BP, group application.

 

1st and 2nd Choice 3A/3C

 

Thanks!!

8%

 

3a 3c early archery bull resident 6 points

 

And

 

22n OCT rifle cow resident 4 points

9%

40%

[Adicted]

I look at some of these odds that these guys have waiting over 15 years and its sad. Now i know why people go outof state

[Flatlander]

I don't think its that sad. Going out of state for antelope is a good option and quality hunts can be had. But if you only want to hunt GIANT bulls in the smack dab middle of the rut, with a rifle, there are not many options much better than AZ. Factor in the relative ease of the country that our elk live in compared to other states, and this hunt is a dream. For a similar experience guys could spend thousands to go hunt WMAT, or private ground in NM. Most of the out of state options are not much better than hunting tags you can get every year in AZ.

 

For example; November rifle bull hunts require anywhere from 3-8 bonus points to draw in AZ. If you have a loyalty point and hunter ed point, you could have a rifle bull tag every other year. These November bull hunts are equally as good and sometimes better than general tags in other states. When you start looking at limited entry tags in other states, the draw odds are not much better. In reality I would compare many of our limited opp hunts to general seasons in other states.

 

One of the biggest problems I see with people here in AZ is that they see what other people are doing, and just want to do the same thing. Someone draws a early rifle tag with 3 bonus points, tells everyone about it and the next thing you know, 15 more people are joining the party hoping for their lottery ticket.

 

Antelope is a bit of a different story, with the number of people in this state, we just can't compete with NM and Wyoming. If you compare our odds with states like UT and NV, I would say you get a much better hunt out of a draw situation that isn't much different. I would prefer to see a switch in philosophy and have more archery tags offered and fewer rifle tags. But for many in AZ they feel like they waited all this time they can't just give up and use a bow. They want to hunt with a gun, so that makes success near 100%. If people were looking for the experience more and killing a giant less, we could have far more archer's out there, increase the number of days each guy gets in the field, therefore enhancing the experience, and issue more tags at the same time.

 

But AZ hunter's want their early bull tags and rifle goat tags, so let them wait. There is nowhere else in the country they can get the hunt they are looking for.

[Bowhunterdal]

Flat lander,

Thanks for doing this & thanks for the donation request!!!! In remission now almost 2 years from the same thing and that $3.00 will go a lot further then a couple cold ones....

 

NR 10 PTS unit 8 early archery.

 

Thanks,

[Flatlander]

Flat lander,

Thanks for doing this & thanks for the donation request!!!! In remission now almost 2 years from the same thing and that $3.00 will go a lot further then a couple cold ones....

 

NR 10 PTS unit 8 early archery.

 

Thanks,

You're golden. Congrats on your elk tag and more importantly congrats on your recovery. Prayers it continues without interruption.

[bonecollector777]

Hey Flatlander, quick question. Last night I was explaining to my dad about how the bonus pass works and was going through the draw report showing him the numbers because he had never seen it. He has 6 elk points and is thinking of going for 4b early archery which from looking at the bonus report he would be right on the verge of being guaranteed that tag right? Looks like 6 points last year some guys drew in the bonus pass. Second question is when I look at the bonus pass for 23n early archery last year some guy with 20 points drew then it appears that a guy with 18 points got skipped and then three guys with 16 points got skipped and then 2 guys with 15 put in as their first choice and only one drew and the last bonus pass tag went to a guy with 14 points. How in the world does that happen?