DesertBull Report post Posted March 5, 2007 Well, another dry winter for AZ. Not as bad as last year, but still disappointing as this was supposed to be an El Nino winter. Hope there is a late storm or two to help things out. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
singleshot Report post Posted March 5, 2007 Today at 10,700 feet in the Pinalenos the patches of ground outweighed the patches of snow. Less than six feet for the winter. Could have been worse but I sure miss the quail and the mule deer that the rain we had in the early 80's left us with. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SunDevil Report post Posted March 5, 2007 so is the verdict out on last years elk antler growth. it has been mentioned that winter rain is more important for elk than deer. so was last year better, worse or average. what could one look forward too this year if they were lucky enough to drawn an elk tag? CB Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mattys281 Report post Posted March 5, 2007 Well, another dry winter for AZ. Not as bad as last year, but still disappointing as this was supposed to be an El Nino winter. Hope there is a late storm or two to help things out. I personally think that "el nino" is just a meteorologist phrase for," We don't know what the heck is going to happen." Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
111 Report post Posted March 6, 2007 From past history it looks like this will be the second dry El Nino of the last 15 years... Winter Season year on the left. (Oct - Apr) Winter Precipitation in the middle. (Oct - Apr) Winter Snowfall on the right. (Oct - Apr) SST State 1991-1992 19.22" 158.9" El Niño 1992-1993 32.28" 149.4" El Niño 1993-1994 15.43" 109.5" Neutral 1994-1995 16.54" 95.1" El Niño 1995-1996 2.83" 28.5" La Niña 1996-1997 9.30" 107.5" Neutral 1997-1998 12.50" 136.4" El Niño 1998-1999 9.46" 71.5" La Niña 1999-2000 5.54" 74.4" La Niña 2000-2001 12.09" 125.1" Neutral 2001-2002 4.02" 38.9" Neutral 2002-2003 8.51" 54.9" El Niño 2003-2004 7.95" 50.9" Neutral 2004-2005 26.63" 130.6" El Niño 2005-2006 5.27" 44.6" La Niña 1971-2000 Normals 14.27" 108.2" It is fairly easy to see the year-to-year variability that occurs with precipitation and snowfall accumulation in the winter season for Flagstaff. There is also a relationship between sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and winter season precipitation in Flagstaff. During El Niño, the average precipitation recorded was 19.28" with 120.9" of snowfall during those years. During La Niña, there has been less precipitation and snowfall with 5.78" of precipitation and 54.8" of snowfall recorded during those years. During "neutral" states of sea surface temperature, it can be seen that a wide range of precipitation and snowfall occur, which represents normal year-to-year climate variability. As can be seen, El Niño and La Niña don't make it a 100% guarantee that it will be wetter or drier than normal, but they tend to tip the scales in that direction. As we all know in northern Arizona, there are no 100% guarantees when it comes to weather! However, with a moderate El Niño event occurring in the Pacific Ocean, the possibilities for a wetter than normal winter are enhanced. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ronaldo Report post Posted March 6, 2007 I dont want to be a real negative here, but just because of the measurements in Flagstaff dont compare to previous years, doesnt mean the whole state is a drought. Over in the White Mountains, we have had plenty of snow and the winter has been darn near 9 months long it seems. We have had measurable snow every week or 10 days since november and still have snow on the ground in alot of places. Im so sick of hearing about were having a drought. The real problem is TOO MANY people using all the water and drilling wells in other peoples septic tanks. If we cut off there well drilling rights then maybe they will go elsewhere to hunt and fish and crowd somewhere else. The snow and rain fall is averaged over many years, not just the last 10-20-30 years. i think the whole drought is a scare tactic to get people to use less water. which they should do. somewhere else..... Ronaldo Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mattys281 Report post Posted March 6, 2007 I dont want to be a real negative here, but just because of the measurements in Flagstaff dont compare to previous years, doesnt mean the whole state is a drought. Over in the White Mountains, we have had plenty of snow and the winter has been darn near 9 months long it seems. We have had measurable snow every week or 10 days since november and still have snow on the ground in alot of places. Im so sick of hearing about were having a drought. The real problem is TOO MANY people using all the water and drilling wells in other peoples septic tanks. If we cut off there well drilling rights then maybe they will go elsewhere to hunt and fish and crowd somewhere else. The snow and rain fall is averaged over many years, not just the last 10-20-30 years. i think the whole drought is a scare tactic to get people to use less water. which they should do. somewhere else..... Ronaldo Thanks for the tip, Ronaldo. Now that we all know what great shape the White Mountains are in, we'll have to concentrate our early hunt efforts over there. Would you suggest unit 1 or 27? Anyone want to chip in & rent a bus? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ronaldo Report post Posted March 6, 2007 I would say get a bus and take it straight down to 27 and get some of them trophy wolves... I hear theres quite a few.... Ron Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Red Rabbit Report post Posted March 6, 2007 Here's a weather link to keep track of monthly totals around the state. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/psr/DroughtPage.php?data=2007 Looks like the White Mountains did OK in Aug, Sept and Jan, but fell a little behind in Nov and Dec. RR Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mattys281 Report post Posted March 6, 2007 I packed into Bear Wallow Wilderness 3 or 4 times before the early archery deer hunt & then we were there for 5 days straight when season opened. Sometimes it was just a sprinkle, but it rained every single stinking day that we were there. I know we need it, but I would've liked at least one sunny day! Maybe I'll get a couple this year. Ron: Tried to sneak in a last weekend of bear hunting mid Nov. in 27 & that was all I did see. Had a pack of 3 or 4 wolves run by at about 50-60 yards. Tried to call 'em back with a cub bawler, but no luck. They sat there, just out of sight & howled at me for a couple minutes & then took off. I wanted them to come in close enough to hit w/ the 300mm zoom on my Canon, but they weren't going for it. Still an awesome experience & at least I got to see them. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
.270 Report post Posted March 6, 2007 welcome to Arizona. that's why they call it a desert. it don't rain much. Lark. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ultramag Report post Posted March 7, 2007 sometimes we get some good snow and rain in the spring hopefully we can still make up for some of it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
azcouesandelk Report post Posted March 7, 2007 I thought that this last year was a major imporvement on the year before but we still need more. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
