ctafoya Report post Posted February 7, 2014 Ok I think I figured out what I want to do. First up Wife and oldest: 4 points each unit 27, 22n(first late), 1 2b 2c, and 4a all late rifle bull hunts. Two younger boys: No points unit 27, 22n, 23n, and 4a all october hunts rifle cow. And for myself 4 points unit 1 2b 2c, and 27 early archery or 1 2b 2c muzzy and 4a early archery 4 points for antelope a and 2a Also how about correct powerball numbers to pay for all these tags? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cjo Report post Posted February 7, 2014 5b muzz first choice 21 muzz 2nd choice 12 points for elk thank you Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
shylopolito Report post Posted February 8, 2014 Hi Flatlander I was wondering what draw odds you were using? I've looked but only could find the odds from 2012. Anyway if you wouldn't mind one more request, I'm looking at hunt numbers 3143, 3144 and 3009 with 2 bonus points. Thank you! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Camofreak Report post Posted February 11, 2014 Antelope 7pts, 2012, 2049, Please and thank you! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted February 11, 2014 Hey flatlander, I have 3bp. And would like to see if you would check mine for me.Looking at the late archery bull hunts. 5bn,27 1/2b/2 and both of the 11m. Bull hunts. Thanks a lot for doing this for me! About 50%, 20%, 20%, 12%, 15% (11M doesn't have late archery hunts so I assume you meant early for that unit) How about unit 9 and 3a/3c, both archery bull with 9 points? thanks! 4%, 14% Elk 3bp: 5BN, 6A early archeryAntelope 11bp: 4A, 19A rifle I'm sure I don't really want to know how small my odds are but what the heck. Thanks Flatlander! 13%, 17% 2%, 1% You are right not knowing is probably better. I don't know why I put myself through this every year, I just can't help it. ""biglakejake, on 07 Jan 2014 - 19:38, said:21 pronghorn points. hows it look for unit 1 rifle? 3a rifle? Probably not unit 1 as 12 guys from last year were not drawn in the bonus pass. Unit 3A should make the bonus pass, but there will be more in that group than there are bonus pass tags available. "" ok thank you and ..... just a clarification for my moldy old brainy part....unit 1 would just be 22 spots in the draw and 3A would be 22 chances after a 50/50 chance in the bonus pass? or should i just pack it in until the next rodeo go-round? and here i thought being 'one-of-257' was a lucky number! thank you very much SIR, lee Sounds about right. I would never pack it in, 80% of the tags go to some lucky dude with a low random number. 3a/c antlerless rifle with 2 bonus points. Thanks Flatlander! 15% Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mr.smith Report post Posted February 11, 2014 Thanks Flatlander. Good luck everybody! Can't wait to start hearing about CC hits. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted February 11, 2014 Ok I think I figured out what I want to do.First up Wife and oldest: 4 points each unit 27, 22n(first late), 1 2b 2c, and 4a all late rifle bull hunts. 23%, 68%, 10%, 56% (This assumes that two of these will be your first two choices. You have 0 chance of drawing any of these hunts as a 3rd through 5th choice) Two younger boys: No points unit 27, 22n, 23n, and 4a all october hunts rifle cow. 8%, 8%, 14%, 5% And for myself 4 points unit 1 2b 2c, and 27 early archery or 1 2b 2c muzzy and 4a early archery 7%, 9% less than 3% and 15% 4 points for antelope a and 2a Less than 2% Also how about correct powerball numbers to pay for all these tags? Try 17, 36, 42, 85 and 7 You are probably more likely to win that than get an Antelope tag 5b muzz first choice 21 muzz 2nd choice 12 points for elk thank you 21 Early ML = 8%, 5B Early ML = Something less than 8% (You could have 22S though) Hi Flatlander I was wondering what draw odds you were using? I've looked but only could find the odds from 2012. Anyway if you wouldn't mind one more request, I'm looking at hunt numbers 3143, 3144 and 3009 with 2 bonus points. Thank you! I am using the 2013 Midwinter Bonus Point Analysis Info, I do all the data entry myself from their raw data and develop my own spreadsheets. About 40%, 25% and 14% (Assuming 2013 HN) Antelope 7pts, 2012, 2049, Please and thank you! 1%, 12% Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted February 11, 2014 Holy cow I think I got them all. I really apologize for the last minute ones tonight. It has been a very busy few weeks and I didn't have the time that I did last year. I hope everyone got what they needed. I won't be doing any tomorrow. I know that I owe one set of CHAMP odds, but it sounded like you had already applied and were just wondering about what your chances were. I promise to still calc those odds, but I wanted to take care of the guys who had not applied first. If I was wrong and you are counting on those odds, PM me and I will text you the odds before the deadline. Good luck, and the only thing I ask in return is that you tell me what you got drawn for and if the info helped you at all. Let the waiting begin!!! 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Titanium700 Report post Posted February 11, 2014 That's fine flatlander, were good. I had already applied but was wondering what my sons odds were. Hope you get your tags for the help you gave everybody on here. Thanks. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ctafoya Report post Posted February 11, 2014 Thanks Flatlander. I'm gonna go buy that lottery ticket!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AZHog Report post Posted February 11, 2014 Thanks again Flatlander! The info helped us decide and will let you know how the draw goes. Really hope you get drawn for your first choice tag! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CouesPursuit Report post Posted February 11, 2014 My hunt choices didn't warrant your FREE service but I have to chime in and mention that what you did here was truly awesome man, best of luck and I hope some folks find a way to repay you. The only thing that could make this thread better would be to see or hear of you drinking some free beers out of the deal. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted February 13, 2014 Hi flatlander, was wondering like everyone else if you would be so kind as to run some numbers for me, actually my son because my odds are probably zero. Lol He is a nonres with a CHAMP permit and currently 1 bp, also 10 yrs old if that matters. I put him in for 3103 3102 3101 All champs and then 3062 3064 Youth Thanks for doing this for everybody, I appreciate it. Oh yeah this is my first post but certainly not last as im a past arizona resident and still hunt there all the time. As a matter of fact last year my son got drawn for youth unit 33 any deer in November and busted his first coues (spike) deer at 400 with his .243, making me very proud of him. As promised the CHAMP hunts: Unit 6AN - 10% Unit 10 12% Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted February 13, 2014 Thanks again Flatlander! The info helped us decide and will let you know how the draw goes. Really hope you get drawn for your first choice tag! Me too, but not likely since I have just 7 BP and it was an early ML tag. It has been 10 years since I last had an AZ elk tag and I have my heart set on one in particular. Once I get that tag I will be working the odds every year trying o find a way to put a decent tag in my pocket as often as possible. Good luck to everyone, I hoped it helped out. I really enjoy seeing everyone get excited about the upcoming year. Thanks for the opportunity. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PatrickJr Report post Posted February 13, 2014 what is the draw odds for the October 6a and 4a jr. cow? just wondering, that's what I am in for, I didn't want to sift thru all the other posts to try to find it, and thanks for all the time you have put into this. I have 2 bp Gracias again Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
