2014 Elk and Antelope Draw Odds

[Flatlander]

How about 13 pts, early rifle 9, early rifle 10 elk 13 pts 10, 18a goat?

2% on elk, 1% Goat

[Flatlander]

13 points for antelope unit 1 / unit 2a

Thanks!!

1%, 3%

 

2 people with 10 bp a piece on same app unit 10 Antelope.

Thanks! Gotta learn to do this!

1%

 

14 b p for early rifle unit 10 1st 9 2nd. please and thank you

Less than 3% on both accounts

 

Flatlander if you get a chance please 10 points archery antelope 4b and 1 thanks in advance

15%, 12%

[Flatlander]

Sorry guys I have been pretty tied up with other things the past few weeks. Hope everyone got what they needed. Remember if you are posting a question I am happy to run odds but please try to be specific. Asking which hunt to apply for with 1 BP will not get you a very good answer. tell me what you are thinking and I will be happy to give some feedback.

 

Also please remember to include: Unit, Bull/Cow, Season, Weapon and Bonus Point total, or if possible 2013 hunt numbers make it really easy. Good luck everyone.

[SwampMafia]

Sorry my uncle asked me to run his numbers. 2 bonus points & late bull.

First choice: 3012

Second choice: 3019 thanks

[BigWave]

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Very nice of you to do this. Not sure if you have the ability to differentiate R vs NR, but I have 16 NR Elk points.

 

1st- 23N Early Archery Bull

2nd- 10 Early Archery Bull

In reality 0. these units will hit the NR cap in the bonus pass and for these hunts that is 18. With the disproportionate number of NR w/max points, you could be waiting a long time to catch them. You may need to consider choosing another weapon or hunting out of the rut.

 

 

Seriously 0 chance??

 

I ended up buying the membership to this guys site. According to his records of applications I have a shot at 23N. With 1 NR tag I know that all it will take is one NR person with 1 more point than I to get that tag. 10 on the other hand seems like I have a pretty decent chance at? Again, according to what drew last year. I know it changes a bit every year. Not trying to be argumentative at all either. Just trying to see where the big difference between what you are saying and what I am understanding from Hunters Trailhead.

 

 

 

 

[BigWave]

10

 

 

[Titanium700]

Hi flatlander, was wondering like everyone else if you would be so kind as to run some numbers for me, actually my son because my odds are probably zero. Lol

 

He is a nonres with a CHAMP permit and currently 1 bp, also 10 yrs old if that matters.

 

I put him in for

3103

3102

3101

All champs and then

3062

3064

Youth

 

Thanks for doing this for everybody, I appreciate it.

 

Oh yeah this is my first post but certainly not last as im a past arizona resident and still hunt there all the time.

 

As a matter of fact last year my son got drawn for youth unit 33 any deer in November and busted his first coues (spike) deer at 400 with his .243, making me very proud of him.

[azpredator@work]

I've got a new one for ya!

 

4 applicants on one permit. applicant #1 has 11 pts, #2 has 4 pts, #3 has 1 and #4 has 1 totaling 17pts. Looking to get a unit 10 late rifle bull tag.

 

Thanks.

[muledeerarea33?]

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Hi flatlander, was wondering like everyone else if you would be so kind as to run some numbers for me, actually my son because my odds are probably zero. LolHe is a nonres with a CHAMP permit and currently 1 bp, also 10 yrs old if that matters.I put him in for 310331023101All champs and then30623064YouthThanks for doing this for everybody, I appreciate it.Oh yeah this is my first post but certainly not last as im a past arizona resident and still hunt there all the time.As a matter of fact last year my son got drawn for youth unit 33 any deer in November and busted his first coues (spike) deer at 400 with his .243, making me very proud of him.

awesome!! Lets see some pics and a story of his coues! Hope he gets an elk tag! I know I'll help as well as a bunch of others on here if we can.

[Flatlander]

Big Wave - Let me show you why I came to the conlcusion that you will not draw either of those tags:

 

There are 273 NR with more bp than you currently have along with 269 Res. Additionally there are 342 people with 16 BP. Last year in unit 23 there were 4 BP tags and only 2 tags available to NR due to the 10% cap. In unit 10 there were 8 tags open to NR, and 15 bonus pass tags. With the bonus pass being split 50/50 between Residents and NR it is pretty safe to assume that the NR cap is being met before the 1-2 pass even begins. Last year both unit 23 and unit 10 required 18 BP to make the bonus pass. Because the NR cap is met before the 1-2 pass ever begins, your application with 16 random numbers assigned to it, is eliminated from consideration before the 1-2 pass begins. This is the harsh reality of the AZ draw system and the heavily sought after hunts for Non Residents.

 

With 885 people who share or exceed your BP level and roughly 50 early rifle bull hunts available through the bonus pass, and only half that number available to NR, it may take many years to reach the bonus pass for an early rifle elk tag. I know this is not news that anyone enjoys hearing, but it is reality and hopefully it empowers you to be able to plan for a hunt that is attainable. If you ever decide to pick up the bow, you have your pick. You can have any archery elk tag you would like. If you are open o a ML hunt, there are a few that you could make the bonus pass for. Even one or two rifle bull hunts could work out, but in reality its not likely.

 

Its tough but its true.

[bonecollector]

7W and 8 early archery bull with 6pts. Thanks buddy.

[Titanium700]

Muledeer33,

 

My son Matthew was drawn for an arizona youth deer hunt and I had high hopes for him to kill a big mule deer buck because I know where they are usually.......well for some reason this year I couldn't find them, I searched high and low talked to many other people in the know and everybody was saying the same thing. "Can't find any racked deer"

Oh I was finding does all right, to the tune of 30-40 every day but with those odds you would figure I'd run into a buck but no it wasn't happening.

I finally gave in and asked Matthew would he be ok looking for a coues buck and he said yes so we searched for a coues buck but did not find a racked deer there either...frustration was starting to set in and I can tell it was starting to take a toll on my son.

Let's just say I pushed a 10 yr old kid with a prosthetic leg pretty darned hard to get him a chance on a buck.

I drug him up mountains to nearly 6000' and back down to around 3000' in one day and he was getting flat wore out. (To be honest so was I)

We had a few misshaps and one was he fell on his rifle full force scratching the crap out of my leupold scope ( :cry: ) and I was nervous he might have knocked it off a bit so I took a test shot at a white rock at 375 yds away and busted it so I knew we were still good.

We saw tons of bear scat (which made Matthew very nervous) lol and saw some of the most beautiful country there is also saw a dozen coatimundi which is also a first for me.

Matthew wanted to shoot one but it would probably have taken me a few hours to retrieve one if he did because of their location and the rugged terrain.

I convinced him that we were here for deer so let's concentrate on that.

Anyway second from last day of his hunt getting late into the evening I think I about pushed him to the brink after dragging him up a mountainside he said "dad, I can't go any farther"

I saw a rock pile a little higher up and wanted to glass the other side so I told him to wait there as I was going up for a few minutes for a looky doo.

I go up to the rock formation and put up my 15 power swaro's on my tripod and instantly find javalina and right above them I find 4 deer one of which is a small spike.

I looked back at Matthew and show him the antler sign...I could tell he got real excited and started coming toward me, I left my binos and everything there and ran back to meet him, helping him back to the rock formation, I showed him the little buck through the binos and he says dad I think I should shoot him.

I agreed because of our lack of buck sightings and the fact the next day would only be a half day hunt due to thanksgiving.

I ranged the deer and got 350 yds, got him set up with his rifle and was a bit hard but he finally located the buck, I kept telling him I want to make sure of which deer to shoot as there was a couple of doe and didn't want to shoot one of them, by the time he was finally ready to pull the trigger the little buck was now at 402 yds and I dialed the CDS on his scope and told him when he is ready and the buck was broadside let one fly.

Just a few seconds go by and he says dad here goes....

At the shot I heard the bullet hit him and the buck humped up (little far back) and walked off by himself and laid down, still alive I told Matthew to send another, when he did I again heard the bullet smack the buck and down the hill he rolled.

By the time it was so dark and the fact I left my headlamp back at the truck we had to leave him there overnight.

Matthew was pretty upset and started to get misty eyed because I stupidly made the comment that I hoped no lions or bears get to it overnight.

But I assured him everything will be allright.

Next morning we went back and found the little buck right where we left him untouched by any animal, and I have one very happy little hunter.

I'm very proud of him of what he had to endure with me as I know I pushed him pretty hard but made sure he had a good time doing it and didn't make him go too far and have a bad time.

Also very impressed with his 400 yd shooting ability smacking that buck twice in a row. Oh and btw the second shot was a great heart shot.

Here's the happy hunter.

Matthew deserved this deer and more in my opinion and I have to say he was proud because how hard he fought to get this deer.

Can't say enough how proud I am of him.

[cmbbulldog]

Big Wave - Let me show you why I came to the conlcusion that you will not draw either of those tags:

 

There are 273 NR with more bp than you currently have along with 269 Res. Additionally there are 342 people with 16 BP. Last year in unit 23 there were 4 BP tags and only 2 tags available to NR due to the 10% cap. In unit 10 there were 8 tags open to NR, and 15 bonus pass tags. With the bonus pass being split 50/50 between Residents and NR it is pretty safe to assume that the NR cap is being met before the 1-2 pass even begins. Last year both unit 23 and unit 10 required 18 BP to make the bonus pass. Because the NR cap is met before the 1-2 pass ever begins, your application with 16 random numbers assigned to it, is eliminated from consideration before the 1-2 pass begins. This is the harsh reality of the AZ draw system and the heavily sought after hunts for Non Residents.

 

With 885 people who share or exceed your BP level and roughly 50 early rifle bull hunts available through the bonus pass, and only half that number available to NR, it may take many years to reach the bonus pass for an early rifle elk tag. I know this is not news that anyone enjoys hearing, but it is reality and hopefully it empowers you to be able to plan for a hunt that is attainable. If you ever decide to pick up the bow, you have your pick. You can have any archery elk tag you would like. If you are open o a ML hunt, there are a few that you could make the bonus pass for. Even one or two rifle bull hunts could work out, but in reality its not likely.

 

Its tough but its true.

 

He was asking about the archery hunts in those units. With 16 points, he will draw either tag.

[BigWave]

Big Wave - Let me show you why I came to the conlcusion that you will not draw either of those tags:

 

There are 273 NR with more bp than you currently have along with 269 Res. Additionally there are 342 people with 16 BP. Last year in unit 23 there were 4 BP tags and only 2 tags available to NR due to the 10% cap. In unit 10 there were 8 tags open to NR, and 15 bonus pass tags. With the bonus pass being split 50/50 between Residents and NR it is pretty safe to assume that the NR cap is being met before the 1-2 pass even begins. Last year both unit 23 and unit 10 required 18 BP to make the bonus pass. Because the NR cap is met before the 1-2 pass ever begins, your application with 16 random numbers assigned to it, is eliminated from consideration before the 1-2 pass begins. This is the harsh reality of the AZ draw system and the heavily sought after hunts for Non Residents.

 

With 885 people who share or exceed your BP level and roughly 50 early rifle bull hunts available through the bonus pass, and only half that number available to NR, it may take many years to reach the bonus pass for an early rifle elk tag. I know this is not news that anyone enjoys hearing, but it is reality and hopefully it empowers you to be able to plan for a hunt that is attainable. If you ever decide to pick up the bow, you have your pick. You can have any archery elk tag you would like. If you are open o a ML hunt, there are a few that you could make the bonus pass for. Even one or two rifle bull hunts could work out, but in reality its not likely.

 

Its tough but its true.

 

I see what you are saying. It appears that you are talking about early rifle tags though? Am I missing something?

 

My original post is below.... and archery is also reflected in the above Hunters Trailhead attachments.

 

 

"Very nice of you to do this. Not sure if you have the ability to differentiate R vs NR, but I have 16 NR Elk points.

 

1st- 23N Early Archery Bull

2nd- 10 Early Archery Bull"

[Flatlander]

Man. I see the confusion now. Sorry with all the questions I had I somehow got my wires crossed. You are golden. Sorry about that.