2014 Elk and Antelope Draw Odds

[bonecollector777]

It is dry right now but with so much rain in the summer and early fall I think there is a lot of feed and grass carrying over from last year. May not be the best antler growth year but won't be the worst. Still lots of tanks up north with water in them.

[3Coues3]

13 points for antelope unit 1 / unit 2a

Thanks!!

[SwampMafia]

For a bull hunt, do you have a better shot at gettin a tag as a first choice than a second choice or are the odds the same? Just curios I never really hear of people drawing their 2nd choice bull hunt

[wapitibob]

Depends on the hunt and when they pull your name. They look at both and I see lots of 2nd choice tags when looking at the stats.

[Seldom Drawn]

It is dry right now but with so much rain in the summer and early fall I think there is a lot of feed and grass carrying over from last year. May not be the best antler growth year but won't be the worst. Still lots of tanks up north with water in them.

Where is it dry?I live in Flagstaff take my dogs out every day, mud and patches of snow all over we have received 29 inches so far in flag but it isn't normal

for this time of year if i had a lot of points I would be wishing for a antelope tag.

[SwampMafia]

Makes sense. Thanks!

[biglakejake]

It is dry right now but with so much rain in the summer and early fall I think there is a lot of feed and grass carrying over from last year. May not be the best antler growth year but won't be the worst. Still lots of tanks up north with water in them.

Where is it dry?I live in Flagstaff take my dogs out every day, mud and patches of snow all over we have received 29 inches so far in flag but it isn't normal

for this time of year if i had a lot of points I would be wishing for a antelope tag.

in show low i have not gotten 3 inches of snow total for the year. elk tracks in the front yard made on christmas eve are still sharp. oak trees and crab apples are starting to sprout. i am sending all my valuables down to the valley next week. praying for ANY february and march moisture. scary dry-i've been here for 15 years.

 

fool hollow lake state park manager told me this morning if something doesn't happen the lake will be dry by june.

 

lee

 

ps--sunrise WINTER GAMES postponed-no snow!:

 

Posted: Wednesday, January 22, 2014 5:00 am | Updated: 6:55 am, Wed Jan 22, 2014.

David Roberts - The Independent | 0 comments

PINETOP-LAKESIDE — It is dry most everywhere, but it snows at Sunrise every night.

That was the message from the Sunrise Ski Resort Marketing Director Matt Weiss to Pinetop-Lakeside’s Advertising and Promotion Committee at their Jan. 15 meeting.

He said that while Snowbowl Ski Resort in Flagstaff has stopped making snow, Sunrise makes a fresh batch every night. He said that three mountains are open, and even without natural snow, the parking lot has been at least 70 percent full on weekends.

He said to combat the lack of natural snow, Sunrise is selling season passes to younger college students for $99 in order to build brand loyalty. He added that they released a snow conditions video on YouTube last week that is getting 1,000 hits a day.

Weiss said that the upcoming Winter Olympics is expected to create renewed interest in skiing.

The Committee, in consultation with Sam John of their advertising agency, Larry John Wright, decided to move the remainder of their January advertising budget to February to take advantage of that. They also hope for more snow between now and then.

Crystal O’Donnell and Ann Groebner reported on the decision to postpone the Winter Games until late February, also in the hopes of getting natural snow.

O’Donnell is the Pinetop-Lakeside Chamber of Commerce director, while Groebner is marketing director at Hon-Dah Resort and Casino.

They said that since the Winter Games involves a dog sled race, natural snow is a prerequisite. Groebner said mushers from as far away as Los Angeles are planning on attending, and an Alaskan tour company has signed on as a sponsor.

She also said some mushers have indicated the delay is welcome, since their dogs need a rest from other races.

Town Finance Director Kent Brooksby told committee members the town has received 62 percent of their projected yearly bed tax within the first four months of the year, an indication that tourism is coming back, and annual receipts may surpass both last year’s numbers and the budget numbers. November and December receipts were not part of the total, he said.

Several business owners have told The Independent that their establishments did well during those two months.

Committee members heard that though they thought they had withdrawn from the White Mountain Partnership, they may be held to a contract signed by former Town Manager Kelly Udall. Although Udall would not have been authorized to approve an expenditure that large without town council approval, Brooksby said the expenditure was included in the annual budget approved by the council.

The Committee, from whose budget the amount is deducted, took no action on the news. Brooksby said Town Attorney Kent Foree is looking into the issue.

[AZ8]

It is dry right now but with so much rain in the summer and early fall I think there is a lot of feed and grass carrying over from last year. May not be the best antler growth year but won't be the worst. Still lots of tanks up north with water in them.

Where is it dry?I live in Flagstaff take my dogs out every day, mud and patches of snow all over we have received 29 inches so far in flag but it isn't normal

for this time of year if i had a lot of points I would be wishing for a antelope tag.

A few patches of snow and some mud puddles isn't a true indicative of the dry conditions throughout Arizona. This is a tough winter so far regarding moisture for most of the state. Flagstaff is about to break the all time record for longest streak in winter without any precipitation. Record is 39 consecutive days, occurring in 1917. They are currently at 33 days.....with the next 7-10 day forecast with no precipitation.

 

Fire danger is already in the moderate to high range for most of Arizona. With the exception of the Kaibab, 100hr fuel moisture readings are at or lower than 20% for most of the state. Anything lower than 30% is considered cured and/or dead fuel.

 

This is a record breaking winter dry spell. Not even in 2002, considered the driest year in decades, have we see a winter dry spell like this.

 

We need some serious Pacific storms in the next several weeks. Otherwise, going to be a bad fire season. Not sure how it will affect antler growth. But it can't be good.

[Norteno]

[YOUTUBE]

[/YOUTUBE]

 

Flatlander, Flatlander, Flatlander?

 

 

I know you are getting tons of requests and thanks for doing this for everyone. I'm sure you have a lot better things to do than run every elses numbers. Thanks again

[Seldom Drawn]

It is dry right now but with so much rain in the summer and early fall I think there is a lot of feed and grass carrying over from last year. May not be the best antler growth year but won't be the worst. Still lots of tanks up north with water in them.

Where is it dry?I live in Flagstaff take my dogs out every day, mud and patches of snow all over we have received 29 inches so far in flag but it isn't normal

for this time of year if i had a lot of points I would be wishing for a antelope tag.

A few patches of snow and some mud puddles isn't a true indicative of the dry conditions throughout Arizona. This is a tough winter so far regarding moisture for most of the state. Flagstaff is about to break the all time record for longest streak in winter without any precipitation. Record is 39 consecutive days, occurring in 1917. They are currently at 33 days.....with the next 7-10 day forecast with no precipitation.

 

Fire danger is already in the moderate to high range for most of Arizona. With the exception of the Kaibab, 100hr fuel moisture readings are at or lower than 20% for most of the state. Anything lower than 30% is considered cured and/or dead fuel.

 

This is a record breaking winter dry spell. Not even in 2002, considered the driest year in decades, have we see a winter dry spell like this.

 

We need some serious Pacific storms in the next several weeks. Otherwise, going to be a bad fire season. Not sure how it will affect antler growth. But it can't be good.

I agree with the fire danger,if we don't get a couple big storms it could be bad,as too the antler growth I love this, everyone talks about it and how

they wouldn't put in for the draw if it was them but I would guess 85 percent of eik and antelpe hunters year in and year out ,kill an animal they could kill in any given year.they wait so long for a tag they just can't hold out.

[OneTeam]

2 people with 10 bp a piece on same app unit 10 Antelope.

Thanks! Gotta learn to do this!

[catman]

14 b p for early rifle unit 10 1st 9 2nd. please and thank you

[buffhunter]

Flatlander if you get a chance please 10 points archery antelope 4b and 1 thanks in advance

[Flatlander]

Thanks for spending the time on this, where can these be found?

On my PC. I have to develop the spreadsheets from raw data provided by AZGFD.

 

I have 17 points for antelope rifle unit 1 for 1st 3 choices and 3a for last 2 choices. I have 5 points for elk archery unit 1 and 2nd choice 3a/3c

1% for unit 1. If 3A is anywhere other than one of your first two choices your odds are 0%.

 

 

I got 19 non res. What whould You do . Rifle only for Me. Early Bull only. I been livin out of State for almost 3 years I'm leanin 23 and or 9 . I see 10 is getting to many tags amongst other problems......BOB!

I would do 10 first choice and 22 second choice. With the upside down dispersal of NR to R max point holders and very low tag numbers in other units it could still be several years before you draw 23 or 9. Unless you have a lifetime license, in which case your tag is not limited to the NR pool. If thats the case It would might make sense to keep trying for the other units.

 

ok, I have done the homework through all the posts here and it looks like I will have a tag this year. Please tell me if I have mixed something up! LOL

 

5 bonus points

#1- 6A early archery, bull... 25%

#2- 6B early archery, bull... somewhere between 16%(4bp) and 100%(6bp)

#3- 6A muzzy, bull..............100% (5bp makes the pass)

 

Thanks for all your efforts Flatlander!!

 

and please correct me if Im wrong

What missedagain said is correct. Only your first two choices are considered for the bonus pass.

 

7w early archery

5B south early archery

 

8 points

9% - 7W took 9 to make the bonus pass and 37% 5BS 8 was the last point level considered and 46 guys were competing for 11 bonus pass tags.

[Flatlander]

unit 3b archery cow sep 3b muzzleloader cow december

Not sure of your BP but those hunts aren't real tough to get. If you have more than 2 BP you would be a lock for the muzzy tag. More than 3 for the archery tag would do the trick. Even in the 1-2 pass with just one or two points your odds are still very high of drawing one or the other.

 

Thanks for all your help. I have 11 BPs and was thinking where would be my best chance at a early archery bull tag and second choice 23S late bull rifle. I don't want to wait until I'm 65 to draw another tag so I'm willing to hunt late.

and thinking 3A Antelope rifle with 6 BPs

 

my hunting buddy would like to try

23 early bull with 14 points. rifle

3A Antelope with 18 points. rifle

11 BP will give you your pick of any archery hunt except 9, 10, or 23 (North or South), no need to settle for a late rifle tag. Many of those can be drawn with just 3 or 4 bp.

3A Rifle Antelope 6 BP - 1%

 

23N Early Rifle Bull w/14 bp - 2% (Its sad, but its true.)

3A Rifle Antelope w/18 bp - 4% 20 is the bonus pass

 

Unit 9 Early Rifle Bull (0.97% draw success last year)

Unit 9 Early Rifle Cow (67.3% draw success last year)

 

Unit 9 Late Rifle Cow (22.56% draw success last year, but only a point away from bonus pass round if I read the numbers correctly)

Bull - <1%

Early Cow - 30%

Late Cow - 100%

 

How many points would get you into the bonus pass for the archery cow in 11M (both seasons please).

 

Thanks in advance.

3 for both

 

4 points (Early Archery) what are the odds for the following?

 

6A, 4A, 4B, 11M

21%, 15% last year but be careful they slashed tags in this unit for 2014, 21%, 15%, 18%

 

Very nice of you to do this. Not sure if you have the ability to differentiate R vs NR, but I have 16 NR Elk points.

 

1st- 23N Early Archery Bull

2nd- 10 Early Archery Bull

In reality 0. these units will hit the NR cap in the bonus pass and for these hunts that is 18. With the disproportionate number of NR w/max points, you could be waiting a long time to catch them. You may need to consider choosing another weapon or hunting out of the rut.