2014 Elk and Antelope Draw Odds

[Heat]

I used to love 6B when there was only 80 bull and 80 cow tags. Then it went to 100 each. Still a good hunt but not like when there are fewer tags. Someone must really want to hunt with 155 bull tags plus 75 cow tags. 6B is no longer a quality hunt. Kinda hard to find an archery bull hunt that's not packed with hunters these days I guess, unless you want to deal with draw odds less than 5%. And to think there was a time when rifle hunts were harder to draw then archery hunts! Boy those were the good ol days!

[Shooter McGavin]

unit 10 bull 6 BPs

unit 5BN cow with 6 BPs

unit 10 cow with 6 BPs

unit 27 cow with 6 BPs

 

All these rifle, thanks in advance

[Coues79]

/>unit 10 bull 6 BPs

unit 5BN cow with 6 BPs

unit 10 cow with 6 BPs

unit 27 cow with 6 BPs

 

All these rifle, thanks in advance

I would be careful applying for a cow tag as your 2nd choice if you have 6 BPs. If you're not in the bonus pass for 10 bull and you are for the cow hunts, and you put any one of those as a 2nd choice, you will not have a chance to draw your first choice.

[Flatlander]

late rifle bull in 23

late rifle cow in 23

early & late rifle cow in 7W

 

2 bp

 

Thanks!

36%, 43%, 21%, 33%

 

Hey man sorry, I'm sure your worn out from helping everyone but one last question. I'm pretty set on 6b as a second choice (1st choice 6a) I don't need the odds I just want your opinion on it or recommendation of a different second choice. I been considering 7east and 11m as well(both of wich I have hunted). (All early archery and 4 bonus points)

In that range, 11M gives you about the best chance to draw and the elk don't get hunted for 4 months straight so I like 11M as opposed to conventional units. Tag numbers have been on the rise in 6B and that may have some impact on age class.

 

This is a great voluntary service you are providing to fellow CWT folks. We shoud all get together and buy you many beers. I know I have little chance of drawing a good tag with a few BP's so I am asking for my buddy. He has 8 BP for elk and plans to put in for 5B-S Sept Archery Bull (cause that's our favorite area). What would be a good 2nd choice for the same hunt....4B, 4A, 6A?

How about Rifle Antelope with 13 BP's?

 

Thank you much!

With 8 BP he will have a good shot at 5BS so hopefully 2nd choice is a moot point. All the units named would offer 100% odds for him so be careful putting as a second choice if you really want to hunt 5BS. Another to consider is 5A, same habitat as 5BS + you can hunt junipers and a lot fewer tags. he is 100% on that one as well.

 

With 13 lope points just pick a rifle hunt and put in, the odds are terrible for all of them.

 

Antelope muzzleloader for 19a and unit 8. 16 bonus points. Thanks for your help!

5%, 3%

[Flatlander]

Thanks in advance flatlander 2bps for me unit 8 early archery or unit 8 late rifle (non resident)

my dad has 3bps & 1 loyaty point unit 8 late rifle for him (resident)

4% (In reality probably 0% as a NR), 14% for you 23% for Dad

 

Thanks in advance as well flatlander. 4 pts for me and 4 for the dad. 1st choice 6a early arch and 2nd choice 7e early arch for me, and 1st choice 7e arch 2nd choice 6b arch for ol dad.

6A - 21%, 7E 19% Regardless of whose name is on the app, 6B is 16%

 

Thanks a lot 10 bonus points I want to put in for unit 1 archery bull

About 16% last year 10 made the bonus pass, but this year it will creep with 50 fewer permits.

 

2 points for elk, looking at 19a late bull or 21 late bull....also any chance for 7 points for antelope? Thanks in advance

17%, 11% when thinking about antelope 80% of the tags go to some random lucky dude so in the words of Lloyd Christmas "So you're saying there's a chance!!!"

 

9 for deer, what are my odds for 13b?

I haven't run the deer odds yet but for either of the 13's you better have max (17) or get real lucky. Those are as hard to draw as sheep tags.

 

 

Wow, what a guy for helping everyone and spending so much time! Since everyone else is asking I guess I might as well also. I know the first choice hunts will be slim to none but pretty interested on what the 2nd choices will show as

 

How bout,

 

1. Muzzy early bull unit 21 2. archery early bull 21........7pts

 

1.21 rifle goat 2. 21 archery goat ..............5pts

5%, 22%

1%, 13%

[Flatlander]

unit 10 bull 6 BPs

unit 5BN cow with 6 BPs

unit 10 cow with 6 BPs

unit 27 cow with 6 BPs

 

All these rifle, thanks in advance

What Couse said may be correct. Were you looking at early or late hunts? Last years hunt numbers would help a bunch.

[tpierce]

Thanks for spending the time on this, where can these be found?

[RoughCut]

Thank you for doing this flatlander. I have 4 points for elk. How about early archery bull for the first and second hunts in 11M. Also unit 8 early archery bull. Thanks!

11M - 1 15%

11M - 2 18%

8 - 6%

 

flatlander,I have 7 BP for early rifle bull unit 10 and early archery bull unit 23n,thanks

23N Archery - 4%

10 Rifle - 1%

Hello, I always thought I was fairly attuned to reading the bonus reports, but it looks like you may have a super groovy method of figuring the odds. Can I ask you what numbers you used for the gentlemen asking about the unit 8 archery hunt odds. Are you taking the total bonus points in the pool and figuring what percentage of that pool each hunters points comprise, then calculating that percentage based on the available tags?

 

Didn't do the math but 6% draw seems harsh in my mind when every bp group having two points or greater drew 10% at a minimum

 

Thanks

 

Ps. As I am just jumping into this discussion I am sure you have already talked about all this. You can just refer me to THAT post if you like.

[AZHUNTER]

I have 17 points for antelope rifle unit 1 for 1st 3 choices and 3a for last 2 choices. I have 5 points for elk archery unit 1 and 2nd choice 3a/3c

[naturebob]

I got 19 non res. What whould You do . Rifle only for Me. Early Bull only. I been livin out of State for almost 3 years I'm leanin 23 and or 9 . I see 10 is getting to many tags amongst other problems......BOB!

[trshboy4]

ok, I have done the homework through all the posts here and it looks like I will have a tag this year. Please tell me if I have mixed something up! LOL

 

5 bonus points

#1- 6A early archery, bull... 25%

#2- 6B early archery, bull... somewhere between 16%(4bp) and 100%(6bp)

#3- 6A muzzy, bull..............100% (5bp makes the pass)

 

Thanks for all your efforts Flatlander!!

 

and please correct me if Im wrong

[bow.hunter8971]

Thanks flatlander

[trphyhntr]

I have 17 points for antelope rifle unit 1 for 1st 3 choices and 3a for last 2 choices. I have 5 points for elk archery unit 1 and 2nd choice 3a/3c

like your first 3 choices are going to be the same hunt?

[missedagain]

ok, I have done the homework through all the posts here and it looks like I will have a tag this year. Please tell me if I have mixed something up! LOL

 

5 bonus points

#1- 6A early archery, bull... 25%

#2- 6B early archery, bull... somewhere between 16%(4bp) and 100%(6bp)

#3- 6A muzzy, bull..............100% (5bp makes the pass)

 

Thanks for all your efforts Flatlander!!

 

and please correct me if Im wrong

 

#3 is incorrect, your 3rd choice is not looked at unless everyone who had that as a 1st or 2nd has already been drawn, it is unlikely to draw any elk hunt as a third choice even cow, even if you put that hunt as a 2 nd choice you would still only be 25% based on last year.

[elk77hunter]

7w early archery

5B south early archery

 

8 points