2014 Elk and Antelope Draw Odds

[Bitter24]

I have 0 BP's since this is my first time applying.

 

Antelope-unit 30A

Elk-unit 10 (probably no chance), 23, 8, or 7. Since I am new to this not sure where to apply. Early units with rifle.

[Flatlander]

Archery antelope 10 points 18a, 18b and 10. Thank you for the help.

10%, 9%, 14% Just a year or two off the bonus pass in those.

 

What's best chance draw for archery antelope on 2 PTS?

12AB

 

Me (4 bonus points)

1st choice: 6a early archery bull 21%

2nd choice: 7w late rifle bull. 5% (This should be your first choice, it doesn't make any sense to have a tougher unit to draw be your second choice. Your second choice will not ever be evaluated because you would already have drawn your easier to draw first choice).

 

Dad(4 bonus points)

Same units as me - Same odds

 

Wife(2 bonus points)

5b late rifle 9%

5bs late arch 25%

 

Daughter(0 bonus points)

Same as wife. 3%, 8%

 

What do you think is our overall odds? Which unit has the best chance? Any recommendations on a different unit. I am pretty desperate for a tag this year as the nightmares of my arrow flying under a 360 5bs bull need to end this year. Any help is highly appreciated. Thanks

Since you asked my opinion I will give it to you. Don't put your wife or daughter in for late archery tags. It will suck the fun right out of it for them unless they are serious archers. As far as your overall percentages, with that many applications you should draw a tag.

 

I know it's hard to tell because it only comes around every three years but what your best guess on how many points will it take for the muzzleloader elk hunt in unit 1?

It will almost certainly be at least 18 to make the bonus pass.

 

Awesome, what are my chances 5B rifle bull or 6A? Thank you!

Somewhere between 0 and 100 depending on which hunt and how many bonus points you have.

 

2 Bp what are the odds four muzzleloader bull in unit 6a, and 22s, and what would it take to make bonous pass in these as well. Thx in advance

13%, 6% 5, 9

 

My wife has 19 bp whats chance of gettin early 9 bull tag.she has never had a elk tag in her life

It was enough last year, depending on where the max point holders apply I would think there is a very good chance she would draw the tag. Good luck and post pics.

 

Dill - I understand that the reality of the scarcity of quality elk tags in this state is overwhelming, we all have to have a coping mechanism. If yours is pretending you have a 50/50 chance of drawing every year, good for you. The reality is much, much more bleak.

 

Khmer - I have thought about using google docs I just have to decide if I want to post this where someone can reverse engineer it. Althouh I give away the results for free, I do consider the equations themselves to be an intellectual property and may want to use them some other way in the future. Who knows, maybe an application service or draw publication.

[Flatlander]

I have 0 BP's since this is my first time applying.

 

Antelope-unit 30A

Elk-unit 10 (probably no chance), 23, 8, or 7. Since I am new to this not sure where to apply. Early units with rifle.

Less than 1% on all accounts. If you are interested i getting into hunting I would suggest applying for some of the early rifle cow hunts. ITs a great experience with elk bugling and plenty of opportunity. I grew up on those hunts and they are some of my favorite memories. Took my wife and kids on one last year and we had a hoot. She drew without a single point. Good luck and welcome to the sport.

[Mesabulls]

Flatlander,

Am i in the bonus pass for 22 early archery with 9 bp's?

 

Thanks

[Flatlander]

Flatlander, Am i in the bonus pass for 22 early archery with 9 bp's? Thanks

Maybe. Last year this was the breaking point. Everyone with 9 got a tag but I would expect some creep this year, your odds are probably 50/50. This hunt has gotten a lot harder to draw in recent years and on top of that they issued like 4 million tags in 22 last year (not early archery, just all the other hunts).

[Mesabulls]

Thanks for your help, I have a few weeks to decide. I might just flip a coin.

[biglakejake]

21 pronghorn points. hows it look for unit 1 rifle?

 

3a rifle?

[elk77hunter]

6a and 6b archery 6 bonus points please

[PSEbow_madness]

Thanks a lot flatlander! This gives me a lot more confidence this year! I obviosly did my math wrong I divided the number of tags by the number of first and second choice applicants to give me what I thought was a relatively close shot to the first pass (80% of the tags). I ended up with 18% for 7w using the 350 tags divided by last years applicants. I'm sure yours is far more accurate, thanks for your time man!

[Antler assassin]

Thanks flatlander we will keep our fingers crossed

[Antler assassin]

Thanks you we will keep our fingers crossed

[Flatlander]

/>Thanks a lot flatlander! This gives me a lot more confidence this year! I obviosly did my math wrong I divided the number of tags by the number of first and second choice applicants to give me what I thought was a relatively close shot to the first pass (80% of the tags). I ended up with 18% for 7w using the 350 tags divided by last years applicants. I'm sure yours is far more accurate, thanks for your time man!

You just missed a step. Each applicant receives a random number for their application and each of their bonus points. The lowest number is then kept. So you have to multiply each applicant by their number of points +1.

[anthonyrmatthews]

19 BP's for antelope. Are my odds still in the single digits for 8 muzzy? Thank you very much!

[wildwoody]

16bps antilope 4a or 5b elk 3bps 22s muzzle and 22n late any any possibilities for 15 bps for big horn thanks buddy

[Coues assassin]

Guess I got a little to excited when first asking and forgot critical info, so il try again what are my chances with 4Bp for late rifle in 5B and 6A?

 

Also I'm sitting at 11bp for antelope, any suggestions? Thank you for doing this it helps me a lot.