Thoughts on the upcoming elk draw

[kwp]

Flatlander/RedRabbit,

What are the odds that you two know more about how the draw works than the people who actually run the draw?

[Flatlander]

I still disagree. The 1-2 pass shows how the chips fell last year, but does not predict how they will fall next year. The bonus pass by hunt number gives all the necessary info to provide you with a peak into what your odds for this year are. The number of applicants by bonus point group once totalled tells you how many numbers are issued, subtract out those who drew in the bonus pass and voila!

 

If the 1-2 pass report was an indicator of the likelihood of future success there would be a linear relationship between the # of bonus points and the % drawn, which there is not, because the draw is random and there for unpredictable.

[Seldom Drawn]

Thanks Flatlander, I think I can draw a 5A or 5B south archery tag, I have hunted both units but the rut really seams hit or miss and I would like to be able to stay away from a crowd thats why 22 seams so appealing.

I have been hunting 5bs and 22 since the 70's very surpised you would go 22 over 5b,yes there is more of a crowd in 5b but look for new areas. on a normal year

with an average rut you should be able to find many,many bulls around the 300 inch mark.the last 3 hunts i have been on or helped we where over 25 bulls in bow range.

on each hunt,not sure where you hunt but stay away from Hutch or cow hill just to many hunters.

[Seldom Drawn]

Guessing the odds for residents only works for the guys with bad luck, the lucky ones will always get drawn more often,I have a friend who has drawn elk tags 12 out of 13 years all archery,a family of 4 up here has drawn bull elk tags 5 out of the last 6 years unit 5 and 6 another friend who has drawn 16 archery bull tags in either 7 or 3c in less the 30 years another with over 12 archery bull tags in 5b,6a,7 and 9 in less then 25 years as well as 2 rifle 13b tags and around 6 archery antelope tags,and a bighorn tag as well,some are just plain lucky.so much for looking at the odds for these guys.

Seldom Drawn

[trphyhntr]

ya i know a dude who has been pulled 3 years in a row for archery bull, sometimes life aint fair.

[Soar AZ]

okay I have 7 bonus points.if I put in for 5B South for my first choice and 5B north for my second choice. looks like I would be in the bonus pass For 5b north

and not In bonus pass for 5bs. is it possible for me to get drawn for second choice and not even have chance for first choice.if I get drawn for my second choice In the bonus pass.

[Coues79]

/>okay I have 7 bonus points.if I put in for 5B South for my first choice and 5B north for my second choice. looks like I would be in the bonus pass For 5b north

and not In bonus pass for 5bs. is it possible for me to get drawn for second choice and not even have chance for first choice.if I get drawn for my second choice In the bonus pass.

Yes it is very real and will happen if that's what you choose and you are in the BP pass for your 2nd choice. This has happened to me before.

[Red Rabbit]

Flatlander, it would be nice if there was another column in the data table that took how many applicants/BPG, multiplied by the number of BP(+1 for that year)for each group, and computed an individual's chance of drawing for each number of BP based on the total number of generated numbers. It would still be a prediction due to the number of applicants being unknown for the future draw and the randomness of the draw. It would be better though than the first % column in the 1-2 pass as it would eliminate the randomness (guess one could do a best fit/least squares curve) if one is willing to do the stat calculations

 

HuntersTrailhead did this for free a few years ago, but went to a $25 fee to get the data.

http://hunterstrailhead.com/index.php?ID=1&XID=1:0:0:0:0

 

 

[Flatlander]

Hence the hours upon hours sitting at my computer building spreadsheets . . .

 

Essentially I gleen the info from the Bonus Pass Report data entry every hunt and run a custom formula for every one. That's probably the most Info I will disclose.

[wapitibob]

Last time I talked to the Dept, they were scheduled to redo some aspects of their computer system in 2014. The thought/hope was that the IT dept would also break out the res/nr for each point pool in the bonus pass and 1-2 pass draw reports. At that point, you'll know exactly where you are in the mix.
Still a year away though. Other changes in the mix for NR also.

[khmer6]

It is most likely contract out to another vendor. You could most likely pick their brains and see how it going ;-)

[wapitibob]

It's staying in house. They've been patching code over the last 20+ years so they're bringing it up to speed.