Thoughts on the upcoming elk draw

[Seldom Drawn]

/> Put in for the nov archery hunt,if you know the unit, otherwise you will struggle, my friends kill some awesome bulls during this hunt they just don't care for hunting forums to post them up.with 4 points you should have know trouble getting drawn.I had a early archery tag this year the 2 best bulls i hunted were in the 370-375.they hunted the same unit and found 3 bulls bigger then i could find during the rut.

Seldom Drawn

I will continue to wait out an early archery bull tag. I realize that I'm not in the bonus pass with only 4 points. I'm just hoping to better my odds in the 80% pass so that's why I was asking about the quality of the 11M hunt. It looks like this unit has a good balance of decent draw odds and decent hunt success.

11m can be good if you know where to look i live on the border of 7w and 11m ,i see some good bulls my buddy's dad missed the 440 bull that was taken last year 2years ago at 35 yards,'

but 11m can be tough if you can't spend time here,

[airmark]

Airmark, can I put in with you? That's incredible. I know they aren't premium hunts but lets crunch the numbers on one guy having that much luck over that much time. I'm just jealous.

Ok so let mr tell ya about my hunting bro. We have had all the same elk tags execpt 23n we did seperat apps lasr year.he has taken spikes on all the 22hunts. He has also drew 2 kibab tags in three years. This year we put in on the same tag. Normaly we dont for deer. Crunching numbers is just putting way to much into it I THINK. Now im gunna stop talking becouse i dont want to jinx this years draw. P.s. paper apps only. Online stuff sucks.

[Flatlander]

Kenny - at 4 BP you would have had 15% chance on the first hunt and 18% on the second. Last year that was 1 bp away from the bonus pass, but there was a crowd at 5 BP so that would have only increased your odds marginally. Regardless, in one of the next 3 draws you would in all likelihood receive a tag. Go for it. Worst case scenario is three years.

 

Airmark - No offense taken. I will wait out my time and draw a good tag, I knew the odds when I started this process. If not this year, then for sure next year. I have one tag and one tag only in mind and I will patiently wait for that tag.

 

Joe - Airmark is exactly right, if you want to hunt elk every year in AZ there is no reason you can't. Even without buying an OTC tag there are several hunts that are 100% draw. Some are bull tags, you just can't expect to have in the rut, pine tree habitat with bulls behind every tree. But it can be done and an elk can be killed every single year, just ask TJ.

 

Coues Assasin - When I said 0 I was assuming you were referring to early, bull ML tags. I haven't finished all the ML spreadsheets yet, but I would think that there would be one or two of the late cow hunts you are knocking on the door of the bonus pass for.

 

I think I am going to try and post up my odds on a website this year so people don't have to wait for me to get back to them like they did last year. I love this time of year, honestly the draw is just as exciting as hunting for me. Everyone has hopes and dreams . . .and then for 8 straight years you get that stupid recording.

[trphyhntr]

"for the fall 2014 draw, you were not drawn for...elk"

[bonecollector]

Im hoping for a early archery tag with 6pts.

[wapitibob]

edit; not sure what I was thinking.

Edited December 31, 2013 by wapitibob

[bigbuckkiller]

I have 17 points going into this year's draw. What do you think my chances are at a unit 9 tag?

[Flatlander]

Archery or rifle?

[bigbuckkiller]

Rifle

[joeeden]

It appears last year there was only a late hunt. Which you would only need 7 points to draw.

[bigbuckkiller]

Last year unit 9 was muzzleloader. This year it's back to rifle. Just don't think 17 is gonna get it this year.

[DesertBull]

I just pay the $25 to hunterstrailhead.com and get all the draw odds for all western states. Worth it if you apply for out of state hunts. It also has the odds for the last 4 years so you can see which hunts are creeping.

[Flatlander]

Hunters trailhead is a great investment.

 

And sorry airmark, but I disagree, being informed is never a bad decision. But congrats on your good fortune.

[Adicted]

How about 13 pts sfor a early rifle 9 or ten

[Flatlander]

For the early rifle hunt in 9 I would think that this year it will take 19 pts to be 100% in the bonus pass. With 17 pts your odds are still single digits. At 13 pts they are a little less.