Thoughts on the upcoming elk draw

[kennyazman]

With the 2014 elk/antelope draw coming up in a few months I've been doing alot of research on some units that I may or may not consider for my second choice on the application. I've got 4 points going into the draw so my odds of drawing an early archery tag are not great but after looking at the bonus point analysis from 2013 it looks like I may have a decent chance at drawing some units that are probably considered to be sub par compared to the more well known big bull units such as 9,10,1, 23, 3A/3C etc...The unit that has most caught my eye is 11M. Because of the decent draw odds and success rate from 2013 I am leaning heavily on putting this unit down. My question to you guys that have had this hunt before: what is the quality of the rut during this hunt? I'm speaking of the second hunt mostly. I'm not setting my goal on a 400" bull although I realize a stud was killed out of here a few years ago. what I want is to be into bugles and a chance at a 6 point bull probably 300" or better. Does this hunt give me this opportunity? Also considering units such as 6B, 7E, 4A, and 4B. So what are your guys' thoughts?

 

[Guest wdenike]

I am just hoping Flatlander isn't wore out from helping others with draw odds last year. Flatlander I hope you are on your 'A' game this year.

 

 

 

Take care, Willie

[ej20]

what are my chances of get drawn for a bull tag on my first try?? which unit would have the best chances??

[Flatlander]

And so it begins . . . I worked all through the break and have all the odds worked up in spreadsheets for Antelope, Rifle Bull, Rifle Cow and Archery Bull.

 

I will tell you this, with 4 BP you will not make the bonus pass on any early archery hunts. There are several late rifle tags that you would have very favorable odds for. There was a general point creep in nearly all early archery hunts last year and almost every unit required about 1 more BP to make the bonus pass than in 2012. With fewer than 6 BP you will need to get lucky to land a tag. Which is how 80% of tags are drawn, so it can happen.

[Guest wdenike]

HA! HA! HA! ROFLMAO! Flatlander I will more than likely pain your hind end soon. Thanks in advance!!!!!

 

 

 

Take care, Willie

[airmark]

My thoughts... gunna roll the dice and put in for the hunts i want. It is a random draw? This year i drew 23n early archery bull with one loyalty point and one bonuse point from 2012. Before that i had 5 bull tags in a row. I also drew 12aw late hunt with a loyalty point only. I just came up early in both draws. Now ill probably never draw a tag agian but it is just a draw. Good luck fellas.

[BackwoodsHunter]

Yeah anything can happen, I drew the 23n early archery hunt off 3 points!

[Flatlander]

That is how 80% of the tags are drawn, so it is very likely that you could draw the hunt you want before ever hitting the bonus pass. But with the bonus pass, you know there is an end to your suffering. Airmark, congrats on your 23N bull, its a beauty. But as someone who has never once had an archery bull tag in this state, I hope you never draw a tag again in your life . . .

[airmark]

Now now flatliner thats funny. Those other tags were all 22n late archery hunts and one 5bs late rifle hunt. I think if guys want to hunt they can get drawn , ya just cant gi for gold everytime. I think there are alot of archery tags that are ez to draw thing is most are not rutt tags. Who knows its a draw my buddys think i know or pay some one off. Anyway just a thought p.s take no ofense to flatliner coment. Just trying to throw some fun in. Also when i draw 23n early hunt agian this year you can come hang out and see what its like if ya want .L,O,L.

 

[Seldom Drawn]

Put in for the nov archery hunt,if you know the unit, otherwise you will struggle, my friends kill some awesome bulls during this hunt they just don't care for hunting forums to post them up.with 4 points you should have know trouble getting drawn.I had a early archery tag this year the 2 best bulls i hunted were in the 370-375.they hunted the same unit and found 3 bulls bigger then i could find during the rut.

Seldom Drawn

[Coues assassin]

And so it begins . . . I worked all through the break and have all the odds worked up in spreadsheets for Antelope, Rifle Bull, Rifle Cow and Archery Bull.

I will tell you this, with 4 BP you will not make the bonus pass on any early archery hunts. There are several late rifle tags that you would have very favorable odds for. There was a general point creep in nearly all early archery hunts last year and almost every unit required about 1 more BP to make the bonus pass than in 2012. With fewer than 6 BP you will need to get lucky to land a tag. Which is how 80% of tags are drawn, so it can happen.

 

With 4BP what are your chances with muzzle loader of making the bonus pass?

[Flatlander]

And so it begins . . . I worked all through the break and have all the odds worked up in spreadsheets for Antelope, Rifle Bull, Rifle Cow and Archery Bull.

I will tell you this, with 4 BP you will not make the bonus pass on any early archery hunts. There are several late rifle tags that you would have very favorable odds for. There was a general point creep in nearly all early archery hunts last year and almost every unit required about 1 more BP to make the bonus pass than in 2012. With fewer than 6 BP you will need to get lucky to land a tag. Which is how 80% of tags are drawn, so it can happen.

With 4BP what are your chances with muzzle loader of making the bonus pass?

0

[kennyazman]

/>Put in for the nov archery hunt,if you know the unit, otherwise you will struggle, my friends kill some awesome bulls during this hunt they just don't care for hunting forums to post them up.with 4 points you should have know trouble getting drawn.I had a early archery tag this year the 2 best bulls i hunted were in the 370-375.they hunted the same unit and found 3 bulls bigger then i could find during the rut.

Seldom Drawn

I will continue to wait out an early archery bull tag. I realize that I'm not in the bonus pass with only 4 points. I'm just hoping to better my odds in the 80% pass so that's why I was asking about the quality of the 11M hunt. It looks like this unit has a good balance of decent draw odds and decent hunt success.

[joeeden]

Airmark, can I put in with you? That's incredible. I know they aren't premium hunts but lets crunch the numbers on one guy having that much luck over that much time. I'm just jealous.

[Seldom Drawn]

My thoughts... gunna roll the dice and put in for the hunts i want. It is a random draw? This year i drew 23n early archery bull with one loyalty point and one bonuse point from 2012. Before that i had 5 bull tags in a row. I also drew 12aw late hunt with a loyalty point only. I just came up early in both draws. Now ill probably never draw a tag agian but it is just a draw. Good luck fellas.

i have friends that drew the 18 multiple units this year and killed 4 bulls,biggest was 350 smallest was a 5x5 what a hunt.