Thoughts on the upcoming elk draw

[Dan H]

Flatlander, you seem to be running the numbers good, I have 21 Antelope pts what are my odds for 2014? Have never drawn a tag. Am thinking 5b or 7.

 

Elk only 3 or 4 I'll take my chances with a 23 late hunt.

Thanks,

 

Feliz Ano

[joeeden]

Flatlander, you seem to be running the numbers good, I have 21 Antelope pts what are my odds for 2014? Have never drawn a tag. Am thinking 5b or 7. Elk only 3 or 4 I'll take my chances with a 23 late hunt. Thanks, Feliz Ano

According to Hunter's Trailhead you've got a 33% chance to draw the 7 tag. 5B max pts is 23 and at 21 you were at about 3% In other news I wish I had 21 points.

[Flatlander]

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Flatlander, you seem to be running the numbers good, I have 21 Antelope pts what are my odds for 2014? Have never drawn a tag. Am thinking 5b or 7. Elk only 3 or 4 I'll take my chances with a 23 late hunt. Thanks, Feliz Ano

According to Hunter's Trailhead you've got a 33% chance to draw the 7 tag. 5B max pts is 23 and at 21 you were at about 3% In other news I wish I had 21 points.

I actually think your odds in 5B are less than 3% but we are basically in agreement. You are right on the brink of being guaranteed that 7 tag.

[Dan H]

Thanks for the input, 7 went to 48 for 2014 and saw a 90" taken from there this year but still researching before the apps.

May hold out one more year it's tough not knowing elk and deer etc with vacation time each year you have to concentrate on the dates of every hunt and time.

 

Thanks man:-)

[az-6.5-284]

I have 7 BP whats the percent to get drawn early rifle unit 10 and early archery unit 9

thanks for the advance

[Flatlander]

Less than 3%

[Mesabulls]

I have 9 res points for elk and was thinking of 22 early archery. What are your thoughts? I would really like a shot at a 300 class bull.

[Flatlander]

You would be close to the bonus pass but I think some of the guys that had that tag last year (speedygoss) would say it was pretty tough. With that many pts you are right there for 3b and 3a/3c. Both are solid every single year. 22 has really become a cash cow for AZGFD, there were a TON of tags in there last year when you look at all the hunts.

[trphyhntr]

I have 9 res points for elk and was thinking of 22 early archery. What are your thoughts? I would really like a shot at a 300 class bull.

put in late rifle youll get drawn and still have a great chance at a 300

[az-6.5-284]

I have 7 BP res whats percent for early archery 23n and 3a/3c,thanks

[Mesabulls]

Thanks Flatlander, I think I can draw a 5A or 5B south archery tag, I have hunted both units but the rut really seams hit or miss and I would like to be able to stay away from a crowd thats why 22 seams so appealing.

[Red Rabbit]

Here is the bonus report for elk and antelope by hunt number for the 1-2 pass. The hunt numbers used are from 2013. The column Success-BPG/Applied-BPG % will give your approximate % chance of drawing based on the average number of BP your group has.

 

http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/documents/bonus/5-2013/2013%20Pronghorn%20and%20Elk%20-%20Bonus%20Point%20Report%20-%201-2%20Pass%20by%20Hunt%20Number.pdf

 

You can read about BP and more reports are linked here

http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/BonusPointProcess.shtml

[Flatlander]

Doug - sorry to derail your post but I wouldn't use that report to calculate odds. What that report shows is how many people with your bonus point total drew tags in the 1-2 pass but that is not a reliable indicator of what will happen this year.

 

For example - if last year 50 people with 4 BP applied for an antelope tag, and 2 of those people were on one app and drew the tag, the report would say that the percent drawn was 8%, but those people got lucky and drew a really low random number, but the probability of that happening is far less than 8%.

 

To get accurate results you need to use the Report that shows the Bonus Pass by hunt number.

[Red Rabbit]

The bonus pass report would be of concern for those with max/close to max point and gives no good indication for those outside of the 20% pass. Yes, the % will vary year-to-year in a BP group depending upon point creep, what the other of the first two choices were and if drawn, and people switching unit choice, but the 1-2pass report is the best to use by those not in the 20% pass (like with 7 BP for antelope) to predict for the next year, especially if one tracks over a period of years. The 1-2 pass report also includes those in the 20% pass

[Mesabulls]

I also have 15 points for Antelope, so I'm probably 5 or 6 years away. But I am hoping with 9 points I can hunt archery bull this year.