What's Scarier?

[billrquimby]

"As for other economic problems, I'll give you one I've seen first hand. ... We crank out "graduates" year after year that are funcionally illeterate and have 8th grade level math skills. ... People can't balance their checkbooks, let alone solve a problem that requires trigonometry or (God forbid!) calculus. Another problem is credit spending. The average household credit debt is over $25k now & average income is still less than $40k. That's credit cards, not counting your car or you house. "

 

Mattys281:

 

These certainly are problems, but they are not measures of the U.S. economy. They may one day affect our economy, but at the moment all indicators, especially the DOW, are setting records.

 

What will happen after new faces with new agendas move into Congress in January is anyone's guess (I'm guessing, and changing my investments accordingly, that we'll see the beginning of major inflation, rising unemployment, and a measureable drop in the GNP by this time next year), but our economy has never been healthier than it is today.

 

I'm more concerned with literacy and business acumen than math skills when it comes to our graduates.

 

Some of us who forgot everything we were taught about math the instant we received our degrees have done well without it.

 

Please don't take this wrong, but it should be "that" for things and "who" for people. I mention this only to point out that knowledge (or the lack of it) is not a measure of the person.

 

 

Bill Quimby

[bobbyo]

Bill,

I agree with you that the economy is as good as it gets now. I wonder how much of that is due to the massive undocumented labor force in this country. Would inflation be as low as it is if companys did not illegally hire these people to do the jobs that are needed in agriculture, construction, food service, hospitality ect? If suddenly we were able to deport every undocumented worker from this country everything would become more expensive immediately. Inflation would rise and the economic outlook would be much more bearish than your dire outlook. Good thing we have "W" in office for two more years, to protect us from this economic upheaveal and keep the status quo we have had the past 6 years in regards to immigration.

Bob

[dave]

Good thing we have "W" in office for two more years, to protect us from this economic upheaveal and keep the status quo we have had the past 6 years in regards to immigration.

Bob

 

The "status quo" for the past 6 years is good? Where have I been?

[billrquimby]

Bill, I agree with you that the economy is as good as it gets now. I wonder how much of that is due to the massive undocumented labor force in this country. Would inflation be as low as it is if companys did not illegally hire these people to do the jobs that are needed in agriculture, construction, food service, hospitality ect? If suddenly we were able to deport every undocumented worker from this country everything would become more expensive immediately. Inflation would rise and the economic outlook would be much more bearish than your dire outlook. Good thing we have "W" in office for two more years, to protect us from this economic upheaveal and keep the status quo we have had the past 6 years in regards to immigration. Bob

 

Bob:

 

I agree. Sudden mass deportation would cripple our economy, at least briefly.

 

As I said earlier we need a way to keep the achievers on this side of the border and rid ourselves of those who are draining our resources.

 

Even without mass deportation, inflation is assured with the minimum wage legislation recently passed by states and soon to be enacted nationally.

 

It's something they taught us in Econ 101 more than 50 years ago: When government demands that hamburger flippers, window washers and floor moppers be paid more, their shift supervisor wants more, and so does their store manager, and the regional manager ... all the way up to the CEOs and stockholders.

 

Spread higher labor costs across an entire industry, and the prices Macdonald's pays for buns, soda pop, pickles, sauce, meat, and other "raw materials" also go up ... as does the prices of Big Macs, houses, clothing, food, cars, schooling, gasoline, computer programming, etc. and etc.

 

Nothing changes. Because of inflation, except for a brief period after a minimum-wage increase, lower-level jobs will never pay a "living" wage in a free-market society.

 

The real losers from inflation are we seniors whose pensions and savings are fixed and are able to buy less and less. That's why I'm changing my investment strategy.

 

Increasing the minimum wage also attracts more illegals to come north. It's hard to blame them when they can make more in an hour than they can in a week down south. If we are sickened by what's been happening to our favorite hunting spots along the border, all I can say is we "ain't seen nothin' yet."

 

I wish "W" could stop or slow what's coming, but I won't hold my breath. The voters have spoken.

 

We've been told that his tax cuts are going to be rolled back, too. Higher taxes at the upper income levels leave entrepeneurs less money to invest in businesses that create new jobs, and this ultimately increases unemployment and reduces productivity.

 

Today's record state of the economy proves he was correct.

 

Back to the reason for this thread, though: I fear the criminals invading our country more than mountain lions, and not just because they might attack me and/or steal my stuff.

 

Bill Quimby

[dave]

You are right on Mr. Quimby.

 

Hope we can all talk about this again 4 years from now.

 

Bill, I barely graduated high school but have watched this same pattern for many years. I guess my ciphering don't quite meet up with the general public. All my neighbors are retired under 60 years old. One bunch from New Jersey, one bunch from Austria, etc.. They bitch at me for not putting red crushed rock in my yard like they have with the little barrel cactus with yellow thorns. They have no appreciation for the natural beauty of our desert. Well, I guess they did once; they took a drive through the monument. They like Sedona, the Grand Canyon etc... They vote and they are on the on the home owners association. They are pretty smart; they don't come around when I am shooting my bow.

[bobbyo]

[The "status quo" for the past 6 years is good? Where have I been?

 

I was being sarcastic Dave. The president and congress have done nothing to stop illegal immigration the last six years. So the status quo is to do nothing except play this stupid game that we have on the border right now. If the IA can transverse the 60 mile buffer zone then he is home free. If not he is sent back to try again the next day. Meanwhile our desert gets trashed. How much effort is made to catch illegals once they make it to phoenix, LA etc. Bottom line is business and corporations want these cheap workers and there seems to be no consequences for hiring them. Our goverment does what business and corporations want. I know both political parties will do nothing. Lets stop the hypocrisy and save our desert. Let the illegals in at the port of entry and the free market will sort them out. Then our desert will be spared anymore devastation.

 

Bill It is funny you mentioned the minimum wage increase. I was going to write about the same thing. One point on inflation. Yes, seniors need to fear inflation, but us wage slaves should be afraid, due to rising health care costs. My actual take home pay has not increased in five years even though i get a 3 to 5% raise each year, so it seems like I am on a fixed income. I could not imagine what might happen if we had double digit inflation for a year in this country. We might all be bankrupt.

Bob

Ps Dave maybe a grey crushed granite would accent your neighbors terra cotta yard nicely. Just a color tip. I know a guy who does landscaping cheaply, but he dosen't speak english too good. Let me know if you are interested.

[billrquimby]

"....us wage slaves should be afraid, due to rising health care costs."

 

Thank God for insurance, whatever it costs. I was hospitalized five times in the past year and the bills my insurance company paid would have kept the war going another five years in Iraq. It cost $680, for just one example, for an ambulance to drive me from my hotel to the hospital four blocks away in Reno.

 

Part of the reason health care costs are so high is that for every insured patient there is another who is not insured and is incapable of paying anything, and hospitals and doctors cannot (and should not) turn them away. A huge number of the uninsured, I suspect, are illegal invaders.

 

Bill Quimby

[dave]

I am with you now bobbyo.

[AZLance]

Dave, I have plenty of Americans that can landscape your yard. I refuse to hire anyone who is illegal. Sure sometimes it is tough to find good workers, by I follow the law, and soooner or later a American citizen fills the job.

[az4life]

Illegals are the biggest problem this country has right now. Yes... THE BIGGEST PROBLEM.

 

Anyone who thinks we will ever have a chance to get a handle on this problem without securing the border is just stupid or on the take.

 

If your house is filled with mosquitos, the first thing you do is find the source and fix it. then you get rid of the invaders.

 

If your boat is taking on water, you first find the leak, then start bailing.

 

If you smell gas, the gas company comes out and finds the leak, shuts off the gas then fixes it.

 

The US border is LEAKING, so what do the politicians do, Debate, and look for ways to legalize the invaders already here, then come up with more programs that offer free passes to anyone else that wants in the US.

 

Seems simple so you know the politicians must be on the take or have other motives.

[25-06]

Illegals are the biggest problem this country has right now. Yes... THE BIGGEST PROBLEM.

 

Anyone who thinks we will ever have a chance to get a handle on this problem without securing the border is just stupid or on the take.

 

If your house is filled with mosquitos, the first thing you do is find the source and fix it. then you get rid of the invaders.

 

If your boat is taking on water, you first find the leak, then start bailing.

 

If you smell gas, the gas company comes out and finds the leak, shuts off the gas then fixes it.

 

The US border is LEAKING, so what do the politicians do, Debate, and look for ways to legalize the invaders already here, then come up with more programs that offer free passes to anyone else that wants in the US.

 

Seems simple so you know the politicians must be on the take or have other motives.

AMEN.........Well said

[bobbyo]

AZONICE I politely disagree. The source is not Mexico the source is the jobs right here. I believe these people are not blindly walking here with a hope and a prayer. They are coming here because a job is waiting for them. When have you ever heard of an employer being fined, arrested, anything for hiring an illegal. It does not happen. If by some miracle we stopped immigration from our Mexican border, we would get illegals from elsewhere. We would have tankers full of Chinesse, jumbo jets full of Indonisians and trucks full of Turks( really bad pun.) All these people need jobs and work for less than a dollar a day in their home country. I feel one law that is stringently enforced would cut illegal immigration immediately without the need for more borderpatrol or a ridiculous fence (Ever hear of the Great Wall of China. That didn't work). Here is what you do. You make it a RICO violation to hire illegal aliens. Rico violation were instituted to fight organized crime and Drug lords. It allows the government to seize all assets, all assets of people who are convicted with this law. So Lenny the landscaper is popped with a crew of illegals. The govt seizes all his trucks, tools, house, personal vehicles, his deer rifle. Everything. The logic being he used ill gotten gains from illegal activities (hiring illegals) to acquire this stuff. Faced with this I think employers would be real careful. I mean real careful, that they hire only legal people. The upside of this plan is there would be a mass exodus of people heading south instead of north. No job no want to live here anymore. The down side is it would cause major economic turmoil much like what Bill and I discussed above, mainly inflation.

I will just say your welcome ahead of time for solving illegal immigration. Tomorrow I will solve the IRAQ problem.

Bob

[TAM]

Thanks Bill, you just had to bring up another sore point with me, minimum wage!!!

 

Why is it that some people think it's ok to beg for higher wages by pressing the emotions of our liberal bleeding heart society??? What ever happed to to good old fashioned hard work? Seems like like the burger flippers and grocery baggers don't want to work for their pay raise, they'll just complain to the liberals that it's too hard to raise a family on minimum wage! The scary part is that the liberals keep listening and pushing for higher minimum wages!

 

One of my first jobs was bagging groceries. I think I made $3.20 an hour (probably a lot more that Bill made at his first job, but I'm only 33). It didn't take me very long to realize that those wages were never going to be good enough. I worked hard and acquired skills that would benefit me in the working world and eventually developed a career path that would get me the goals that I desired. I don't come from money. I barely passed high school. I have almost zero college, and the credits I have earned have letters like c's, d's, and f's right next to them. If I can do it so can anyone else! Well that's if they can find the time to stop crying about how little they make and how hard it is to raise a family on minimum wage...................... the cycle just goes on and on and on................!!!

 

Why would we want to give anyone a pay raise that hasn't earned it?

[mattys281]

Mr. Quimby:

 

I agree on the point of literacy & business, but only because I believe manufacturing to be on it's way out in this country as our economy moves towards being completely service based. That's what concerns me, quite frankly. I hear the numbers all over the news about our GDP & what-not, but the problem I see with those figures is that the GDP is a measure of all goods & services produced. How much of the service consumption is based on credit spending? It's fine for this year, but sooner or later people have to put away the credit cards & start paying down the debt. They've tried hard to keep us spending w/ their interest rate cuts & interest only mortgages, etc., but I don't think that any credit based system can go on indefinetely.

Also, while we're talking about it, I did a little research on the web this morning, & according to our Treasury Dep., public held debt is up to over $4.9 trillion dollars, compared to $3.8 trillion at the end of the fiscal year in '97. $4,920,158,909,794.45 to be exact. That's almost 30% in ten years! Also, they say that bankruptcy filings for people under the age of 25 are up more than 50% since 1991. Yikes! I guess those fancy zero down SUVs & their payments catch up to you sooner or later.

Now time for my morning serving of humble pie. Both the teen pregnancy rate & the dropout rate have been declining steadily since the '70's, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. I could swear that I'd hear differently on the news, but who's to say? I have to admit it when I'm wrong.

 

p.s. I'll try to watch my grammar, but usually am flying through a post while between duties, so don't bother w/ the spellcheck. Good thing I didn't find any stats on the number of man hours spent on cwt.com during the course of a day!

[billrquimby]

Mattys281: "... sooner or later people have to put away the credit cards & start paying down the debt. ... I don't think that any credit based system can go on indefinetely. "

 

I agree. Ultimately, things will crash if individual debt continues upward, but I was speaking of November 2006. America's economy has never been better than today. I expect a major change starting in a couple of monthhs.

 

TAM: "One of my first jobs was bagging groceries. I think I made $3.20 an hour (probably a lot more that Bill made at his first job, but I'm only 33)."

 

My first job was when I was in high school. I made signs and helped trim windows at a department store in Yuma for 75 cents an hour. My take-home pay for 20 hours a week was about $10. I had a variety of jobs after that while I worked through college, including making cantelope crates in the summer, installing seat covers and cashiering at a drive in movie. ... and most of those jobs paid $1.25 hour. After graduating from UA my first "real" job was as advertising manager at a department store for $8,500 year in 1958. I thought I was rich when I went to work a year later for a public relations agency for $10,000 year ... and as an art director for $12,000 for another agency a couple of years later. I took a pay cut when I started a new career as an outdoor writer in 1967.

 

Along the way I accumulated so much debt I am ashamed to mention how bad it was, but counting house, cars, credit cards, etc., it had to have amounted to three times what I was making per year at the time. At age 70 I owe no one, and my net worth is far more than I ever imagined I could attain. So there is hope, Mattys281.

 

Bill Quimby