And then there were ....157....

[AZBob]

Old Buck,

I went through the link he provided for sheep hunts in his other post and I found 20 successful applicants who drew with maximum points, and if there were 177 max point holders last year, the 157 remaining would be exactly right. I've got max points, too. The odds are getting a little better each year!

Bob

[reezenhunter]

I have a reallly good feeling that ill end up getting my sheep tag on the rez white mountain apache that is!

[Lv2hnt]

Point of interest --- I drew my desert sheep tag this year (with 21 points) from the 20% bonus pool and I did NOT have maximum points (which was 24 this year). It depends what unit you apply for with your 1st choice. In my case, the 20% from my unit's 1st choice applicants slid down to include me at 21 points. Then I just got plain lucky when my number came up in that bonus pool lottery ...

[Heat]

Point of interest --- I drew my desert sheep tag this year (with 21 points) from the 20% bonus pool and I did NOT have maximum points (which was 24 this year). It depends what unit you apply for with your 1st choice. In my case, the 20% from my unit's 1st choice applicants slid down to include me at 21 points. Then I just got plain lucky when my number came up in that bonus pool lottery ...

No. You did not draw your tag from the 20% pool. For sheep 20% of the overall sheep tags, not 20% of the tags from the hunt are given to those with max points. If you did not have max points last year, you drew in the 80% random part of the draw. Your 21 points earned you a lower number than the vast majority of everybody else and earned you a sheep tag. Many units will not have tags selected during the 20% set aside for max point holders so it is possible to have tag #1 and have less than max points. I know this because I had tag #1 during my hunt and I only had 8 points. One of my buddies had 11 points and drew the same hunt with a higher tag number.

[Lv2hnt]

That's what I had thought too, but someone recently told me differently. Heat, your personal example seems to illustrate things pretty plainly --- I just re-read the explanation on G&F's website, which follows along with what you stated.The other tag holder in my hunt successfully drew his 2nd choice in the general draw with only 11 points ...

[Flatlander]

Tom - There is a way you could have drawn from the bonus pass and from the reports we should be able to tell if you did. I have not downloaded them yet, but when I do I will check to see which pool your tag came from.

 

The way you could have drawn from the bonus pass is if all the point holders with more points than you, so everyone with 24, 23 and 22 points had selected a hunt that had no permits were remaining and therefore the bonus pass slid all the way down to you. This does happen to some degree each year because many of the guys at the top apply for the same hunts, but it is unlikely it would happen to this degree. Still possible however.

 

My guess is you drew from the 1-2 pass and had a low number.

[Heat]

Flatlander you have a good point, but your assumption for that to happen is very unlikely in my opinion. There are 157 or so applicants with 2 choices available during that round. Don't take much for those guys to eat up the 18-20 tags or whatever are available. I would be willing to bet the farm your example with it sliding down to 21 points did not happen in this situation.

[Flatlander]

Flatlander you have a good point, but your assumption for that to happen is very unlikely in my opinion. There are 157 or so applicants with 2 choices available during that round. Don't take much for those guys to eat up the 18-20 tags or whatever are available. I would be willing to bet the farm your example with it sliding down to 21 points did not happen in this situation.

If you read my post, I agree with you. I view that possibility as very unlikely, but it is not outside the realm of possibilities. This was something Tom and I discussed prior to him completing his app when we ran his odds. We knew he needed a unit that would make the 1-2 pass because we just didn't think the bonus pass would ever get there.

 

Regardless we will be able to look at the bonus pass draw report and see for sure.

[Heat]

Sorry man, wasn't disagreeing, just expanding on my point. You guys nailed it for picking a unit. Good job!

[StickFlicker]

I view that possibility as very unlikely, but it is not outside the realm of possibilities.

 

Heat's right. Yes, it's possible to the same degree that it's possible that a man will someday run a one minute mile or that Kate Upton will call and ask me out on a date! There are hundreds and hundreds of people between 24 points and 21 points. There is absolutely no way on Earth that all of those hundreds of people's choices were filled before they gave out the first 20 permits. I don't need to see a report to know that it just didn't happen, regardless that there is a 1 in 100,000,0000 chance that it could. But with regards to Kate Upton, as Jim Carrey said, "So you're sayin' there's a chance...".

[Old Buck]

I reviewed the bonus point analysis for the 20 percent pass and the first and second pass for bighorn sheep. I found that there were 171 applicants with max bonus points that they drew all 21 permits available in the 20 percent pass. In addition our max bonus point group drew an additional 4 permits in the first and second pass, for a total of 25. This leaves a total of 146 of us that we're unsuccessful in the draw.

 

If permit numbers stay about the same and the draw rules don't change, I would guess that in 5 or 6 years there could be successful applicants in the 20 percent pass with one point less than max.

 

I spend lots of time going over these reports every year. It is a great passtime while others are sheep hunting!

[StickFlicker]

This leaves a total of 146 of us that we're unsuccessful in the draw.

 

Since there are now 157 of us according the the report, are we to assume that 11 people have moved up to the top pool since the drawing (assumably by taking the class which I believe would be the only way this could happen)? Eleven seems like a lot, but I don't see what else it could mean? If they are taking 25 from the pool, but putting 11 in the pool....we aren't making much headway.

 

I do agree that within 5-6 years we will be seeing people with one less than max points begin to draw in the "max points" pool.

[bojangles]

looks like i could have a long wait for that strip tag. i think i have 3 or 4 bonus points for deer.

[Hornhunter247]

Stickflicker the reports don't account for the max point holders that opt for bonus point only this year. I can see a few coming for the class to get their permanent point though.

[StickFlicker]

I have not had the time to study the reports for the 2013 drawing yet, but according to the article written in Eastman's Journal's Membership Research Department:

 

Less than half of those with bonus points

for sheep actually applied for a permit in

2012. The only point group with 100%

participation was those with max points

 

I would assume that is likely to hold very close to true in 2013 as well. Most of those with the higher point levels are likely getting a little older, since many of them may have applied for years before there even was a bonus point system (like myself!). When you're starting to get older, the chances of you putting in for bonus points only for a hunt this hard to draw is probably pretty low. Granted, it could easily happen for a person or two because of a conflict that might arise, but most probably are looking at how many years they have left to hunt and how demanding this type of hunt might be. They figure they need all the chances to get drawn that they can so they probably don't take too many years off. Also, the sooner they draw this first sheep tag, the quicker they can start applying and building points to try to draw the second species in their lifetime (if they still feel young enough to bother).