Sheep Draw Odds

[standman]

Read this article. It gives good insight on what to expect from the sheep draw.

 

http://www.azdesertsheepguides.com/EBJ77_80-83.pdf

 

Brian

This was the best information I've seen on the outlook of the sheep draw. I studied it for hours at work and started deleting units and before you know it I made my pick from what I thought was my best chances of a sheep tag. I actually picked 2 units I never ever thought I would.

 

Thanks Brian.

Hey TJ. How many points you got going in? I'm going in with 20. Like you I had to narrow my choices down to some units that gave me my best chance. So when you draw that tag this year let me know I would love to help out, even if its just to be camp cook

 

Brian

[Becker]

Thanks for the clearing that up. I didn't realize they went through the pool like that on the 20% pass. I thought it was just max pool holders.

[Flatlander]

Good info Marvin. These are the complexities of the sheep draw that are often overlooked, and unfortunately many applications are dead in the water before the 1-2 pass even hits. I came up with 6 hunts last year that capped out in the bonus pass. When it comes to sheep you have to take every advantage you can.

[tjhunt2]

 

Read this article. It gives good insight on what to expect from the sheep draw.

 

http://www.azdesertsheepguides.com/EBJ77_80-83.pdf

 

Brian

This was the best information I've seen on the outlook of the sheep draw. I studied it for hours at work and started deleting units and before you know it I made my pick from what I thought was my best chances of a sheep tag. I actually picked 2 units I never ever thought I would.

 

Thanks Brian.

 

Hey TJ. How many points you got going in? I'm going in with 20. Like you I had to narrow my choices down to some units that gave me my best chance. So when you draw that tag this year let me know I would love to help out, even if its just to be camp cook

 

Brian

Likewise Brian. I'm at 20 myself. I'm pulling for ya Brian. Maybe we draw the same unit together. How awesome would that be?

 

TJ

[elkhutnaz]

How does the draw work for sheep with the BP pass. Every year I hear of someone with 10 or even fewer points pulling a sheep tag. Since the majority of hunts have 3 or less tags available, wouldn't all the tags go to those with max points?

Nope last year there were 42 desert sheep hunts only 10 of those had a 20% pass, Rocky sheep 5 hunts and 3 of those had a 20% pass. I have personally known 3 people who have drawn tags they drew with 7 pts, 6 pts, and 9pts. so good luck because you never know what might happen in the draw

I drew 1st choice with 8 pt for desert last year...and i know 3 other guys that drew with 8 pts

[sidwynder505]

i had 11 points! the other two hunters in my unit one had 1 point and the other had no points!!! first time!!.....now im on my quest to draw a rocky sheep tag!!.....thats going to be a long road! ......good luck guys it truly worth it!!!

[wildwoody]

wow, i have 14 i thought i was getting up there, i guess im still stuck in the gate. thats fgreat info

[gotcoues]

I'm sitting here totally crushed. If I am taking in all the information correctly, it is likely that all my applications for the last 10 years for my kids and I have been totally worthless with a %0 percent chance of even making it into a draw. I'm guessing we have 35 or more separate applications I have turned in. I have zero issues with an allotment of tags going to a bonus pass, but it seems to me that we should know if the unit is "closed" for the general draw for the first and second choice applicants. I thought I knew how the bp pass worked and there were tags left over in each unit, I clearly see that was a mistake. I put our family in for sheep hunts based on proximity to our location knowing I will enjoy doing a lot of scouting if one of us were lucky enough to draw. Sounds like the Silverbells is %0 percent chance without max points on an individual app. Does anyone have exact units for each year that were completely gone because of the bonus pass before the general draw even had begun?

 

I'm pretty heartbroken to think not one of our apps made it into a viable general drawing because of my lack of information. Seems to me, most hunters are totally unaware of this system of lumping all the tags together for sheep.

 

Even if the closed units change year by year because the max points applications are all over the map for their choices, I still think it is a very flawed system the way they are running it. When I apply I want to at least think "so your telling me there's chance" when I send in my app. hahahaha

 

What is the least favorite and second least favorite unit among max point holders, this will be our new 1st and 2nd choice. Please pm me the answer, I don't like competition in the draw. LMAO while shedding some tears at the same time.

[JSHUNTER05]

Hi Flatlander, I just found out my buddy put in for 39W with 20 bonus points for sheep, can you let me know his odds of getting drawn? Thanks JS

[DesertBull]

Did anyone apply for 37b? First time it's been offered. Was hoping people might overlook it.

[standman]

/>Did anyone apply for 37b? First time it's been offered. Was hoping people might overlook it.

I did

[sidwynder505]

my wife did! (37B)! My friend put five members of his family in for 37b also!! !!

[1uglydude]

Does anyone have exact units for each year that were completely gone because of the bonus pass before the general draw even had begun?

 

 

It changes slightly each year, but you can usually predict which units it will be based on history. Also, if a unit has a big ram come out of it a couple years in a row, chances are it will end up in a bonus pass pool only system the next year.

[1uglydude]

/> Did anyone apply for 37b? First time it's been offered. Was hoping people might overlook it.

I did

 

I did, and so did six of my friends and family. No monsters in there yet, but we know it pretty well.

[DesertBull]

Well that fricken sucks.