Sheep Draw Odds

[Flatlander]

There are at least a few hundred people at each of the higher point pools. Last year 24 people were drawn and left the max point pool. If you have 20 bonus points, there are approximately 850-900 people that have more points than you, and a few hundred that have the same amount as you. If an average of 20-25 people are drawn out of the top point level each year, you can do the math on how long before you are in that max point pool.

That's encouraging! Maybe one day it will happen!

Yes, maybe one day in the next 30-40 years you may reach the max point pool. In the meantime, keep applying every year, you can't afford to take years off when it comes to the sheep game.

[Outdoor Writer]

As a resident, I drew 2nd choice last year with 21 points in the 1-2 round. Even though you might not draw in the BP pass, 20 points gives you lots of numbers to shuffle for the 1-2 pass.

 

Yesterday, I applied for a RM permit with only my loyalty and app points. Perhaps I ight draw before I'm 100 yrs old.

[4Falls]

How does the draw work for sheep with the BP pass. Every year I hear of someone with 10 or even fewer points pulling a sheep tag. Since the majority of hunts have 3 or less tags available, wouldn't all the tags go to those with max points?

[654321]

How does the draw work for sheep with the BP pass. Every year I hear of someone with 10 or even fewer points pulling a sheep tag. Since the majority of hunts have 3 or less tags available, wouldn't all the tags go to those with max points?

Nope last year there were 42 desert sheep hunts only 10 of those had a 20% pass, Rocky sheep 5 hunts and 3 of those had a 20% pass. I have personally known 3 people who have drawn tags they drew with 7 pts, 6 pts, and 9pts. so good luck because you never know what might happen in the draw

[Outdoor Writer]

How does the draw work for sheep with the BP pass. Every year I hear of someone with 10 or even fewer points pulling a sheep tag. Since the majority of hunts have 3 or less tags available, wouldn't all the tags go to those with max points?

 

Only 20% of the total can go into the BP pass. In units with three permits, one would go to the BP pass, i.e. 20% X 3 = .6 rounded to one and the other two would go to the 1-2 round. But once the TOTAL permits issued in the BP pass reaches 20%, the BP pass ends even though a unit might have a permit left. Thus, if there are 100 permits available, the BP pass is shut down as soon as the total issued hits. 20 and the other 80 go to the 1-2 pass.

 

Pertinent snipes from the regs:

 

The Department shall reserve a maximum of 20% of the hunt permit tags for all hunt numbers combined statewide for bighorn sheep and buffalo to issue to individuals and groups that have bonus points.

 

D. The Department shall not make available more than one hunt permit-tag or 10% of the total hunt permit-tags, whichever is greater, for bighorn sheep or buffalo in any draw to nonresidents. The Department shall not make available more than 50% nor more than two bighorn sheep or buffalo hunt permit-tags of the total in any hunt number to nonresidents.

[standman]

Read this article. It gives good insight on what to expect from the sheep draw.

 

http://www.azdesertsheepguides.com/EBJ77_80-83.pdf

 

Brian

[4Falls]

Great info guys thanks!

[jmall]

Here is a link that i think will be very helpful to anyone trying to understand how the bonus point system works. http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/BigGameDrawingProcess.shtml

[Becker]

I hate to say this but I think you are wrong Tony.

 

All three tags could go to max point holders. The sheep tags are lumped into one grouping, just the total number of tags. So say there 100 tags for ease of calculating. 20 go to max point holders or CAN GO. If we look at say unit 22 with three tags, IF the first three guys in the 20% pass that are chosen have unit 22 as their first choice they get the 3 tags. Say the entire rest of the max point holders also put in for only 22 then that would be it and the remaining (in our 100 calulating tags #) 97 tags would be available for the 1st and 2nd choice pool. That is how people get tags with only few points every year. It all depends on what units the max pool holders put in for. If all the max guys only put in for 1 or 2 units, and the same 1 or 2 units for that matter it leaves more tags available for the 1st and 2nd choice pool.

 

Its and I quote"ALL HUNT NUMBERS COMBINED" not "per hunt number" when it comes to sheep and buffalo for that matter. If it were "per hunt number" like deer and everything else then yes only 1 tag would go to a max point holder and the other two would be up for grabs in the 1st and 2nd choice pool if we were looking at a unit with 3 tags.

 

Thats how I understand the sheep pool. Correct me if I am wrong.

[couesmagnet]

Becker your spot on, this is exactly how it works. No one with less than max can draw the top couple units.

[StickFlicker]

Becker,

 

I agree you are correct on most of your explanation, although your theory of having more permits left for the 1st and 2nd choice guys if the max point guys all put in for the same hunts is not possible. The "max point group" is generally thought of as those that currently have 24 points, however, it doesn't HAVE to be. There are nearly 200 people that currently have 24 points, but let's say that in your example every one of them applies for the same first choice and no second choice, and let's say that hunt had 2 permits. Once those two permits are gone, the rest of the 20% bonus pass permits (approximately 19 permits) would NOT go into the random drawing, they would simply drop down to those people with 23 points and continue, then 22 points, etc. until all of the 20% permits were issued, just like they would if it were deer, elk or antelope tags in a particular hunt number. If permits are still available from the 20% allocation, then the next lower bonus point category is looked at; and so on, until all of the 20% allocation is issued or until all applications with 1 or more bonus points are read.

 

Additionally, 654321 is incorrect. ALL sheep hunts are eligible for permits in the 20% bonus round, and potentially every single permit in ANY given hunt could all go in the bonus round (and commonly does in the most sought after units). Tony's analysis of what would happen if a unit contained 3 tags is not correct even for other species like elk and antelope. A hunt must have at least 5 permits before the 20% bonus pass would apply (for all species except sheep and buffalo).

[654321]

4Falls asked since the majority of hunts have 3 or less tags available, wouldn't all the tags go to those with max points. I said nope they don't only go to those with max points. I pointed out that last year only 10 of the 42 hunts available had tags in the 20% pass for desert sheep and 3 of the 5 rocky had tags in the 20% pass. My point is people with few points will get tags this year and there will be plenty of people with max points that will not get tags

[StickFlicker]

I pointed out that last year only 10 of the 42 hunts available had tags in the 20% pass for desert sheep and 3 of the 5 rocky had tags in the 20% pass.

 

I'm sorry, I took your post to mean that only those hunts (10 out of the 42) were "eligible" for the 20% pass. If you are stating that only 10 of the 42 hunts were actually impacted by having tags issued to max point holders, that is something different. I will take your word on that. And you are certainly correct that many permits will go to applicants that are not in the max point pool, and many max point holders will go without a permit (for at least their 23rd consecutive year....). Good luck to all!

[tjhunt2]

Read this article. It gives good insight on what to expect from the sheep draw.

 

http://www.azdesertsheepguides.com/EBJ77_80-83.pdf

 

Brian

This was the best information I've seen on the outlook of the sheep draw. I studied it for hours at work and started deleting units and before you know it I made my pick from what I thought was my best chances of a sheep tag. I actually picked 2 units I never ever thought I would.

 

Thanks Brian.

[Outdoor Writer]

I did a bit more reading. You guys are correct. MY BAD!!

 

First mistake I made this year.