Sheep Draw Odds

[Flatlander]

I worked up the desert sheep draw odds for Lv2hnt, so if anyone would like a little info before turning in their app feel free to give me a shout.

 

For all those new to the game, if you have less than 10 points your odds are 0 to <1% regardless of unit.

[cosninocanines]

12 Bonus points with 1 shot at Rocky and 1 at Desert not necessarily in that order.

[Flatlander]

The easiest to draw Rocky tag is the Lower Blue in 27 and last year you would have had .81% chance. As far as deserts go 15A & 15B are the best odds and last year 12 points got you just over a 2% shot at it. Looking at it that way put the Rocky first and then the desert. Good luck.

[1worthlessnut]

So your saying there's a chance

[tjhunt2]

I got 20pts so what are better odds for me, desert or rocky? Thanks!

 

TJ

[tjhunt2]

The easiest to draw Rocky tag is the Lower Blue in 27 and last year you would have had .81% chance. As far as deserts go 15A & 15B are the best odds and last year 12 points got you just over a 2% shot at it. Looking at it that way put the Rocky first and then the desert. Good luck.

 

Is that .81% or 81%?

[SirRoyal]

Always do your Desert sheep first choice. Only 3 places to hunt them Az ,Nm, Mexico. You can put in for Rocky in a lot of westerns states. Desert Bighorn is always the hardest to draw.

[Flatlander]

I got 20pts so what are better odds for me, desert or rocky? Thanks!

 

TJ

With 20 pts, you can get a 3% chance at a desert bighorn tag if you pick the right unit. If you pick the wrong unit, you literally have no chance because all the tags will go in the bonus (max point) pass. Sad, but true. For Rocky the best option is that Southern Blue tag and you would have about a 1.5% chance at it. TJ if you want some help with figuring out which units to apply for shoot me a PM or text me. I am happy to help.

 

 

The easiest to draw Rocky tag is the Lower Blue in 27 and last year you would have had .81% chance. As far as deserts go 15A & 15B are the best odds and last year 12 points got you just over a 2% shot at it. Looking at it that way put the Rocky first and then the desert. Good luck.

 

Is that .81% or 81%?

.81% as in <1% again sad, but true.

 

Always do your Desert sheep first choice. Only 3 places to hunt them Az ,Nm, Mexico. You can put in for Rocky in a lot of westerns states. Desert Bighorn is always the hardest to draw.

Hate to say it but CA, NV, UT, CO, NM, AZ and MX all have hunt-able populations. I agree on putting Desert first, but only because I am trying to grab any tag I have a shot at.

[cosninocanines]

Thank You!

 

Desert first and Rocky second Maybe Maybe Maybe

[654321]

Always do your Desert sheep first choice. Only 3 places to hunt them Az ,Nm, Mexico. You can put in for Rocky in a lot of westerns states. Desert Bighorn is always the hardest to draw.

I could be wrong but I believe Nevada, California , Utah and Colorado also have Desert sheep.

[StickFlicker]

And for those of you that do have max points (24), and insist on applying only for top tier units like 22, there are 42 people left in the pool that applied for that hunt last year that also have max points. That means you could have as long as 14 more years (42/3) before drawing that tag even in the max point pool. That is assuming other max point holders don't decide to change units and apply for that hunt and make your wait even longer....

[AZwest16]

I know max points for sheep are 24. Does it stay at 24 every year or does the max number continue to rise? It seems like more people are getting to 24 than people getting drawn. Just curious how that works. I'm at 20 and counting!

[654321]

I know max points for sheep are 24. Does it stay at 24 every year or does the max number continue to rise? It seems like more people are getting to 24 than people getting drawn. Just curious how that works. I'm at 20 and counting!

It continues to rise there will be people that have 24 going into the draw that won't draw so next year going into draw the max will be 25.

[StickFlicker]

There are at least a few hundred people at each of the higher point pools. Last year 24 people were drawn and left the max point pool. If you have 20 bonus points, there are approximately 850-900 people that have more points than you, and a few hundred that have the same amount as you. If an average of 20-25 people are drawn out of the top point level each year, you can do the math on how long before you are in that max point pool.

[AZwest16]

There are at least a few hundred people at each of the higher point pools. Last year 24 people were drawn and left the max point pool. If you have 20 bonus points, there are approximately 850-900 people that have more points than you, and a few hundred that have the same amount as you. If an average of 20-25 people are drawn out of the top point level each year, you can do the math on how long before you are in that max point pool.

That's encouraging! Maybe one day it will happen!