cbryant11 Report post Posted February 8, 2013 Sneek freak dont wast your time with those garbage units Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sneekfreak Report post Posted February 8, 2013 Sneek freak dont wast your time with those garbage units Only doing it to give you some filming opps! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
out2hunt Report post Posted February 9, 2013 Could you please give me odds for Unit 9 and 23N archery with 13 points? The post above yours states 23n archery was 14 points to make the pool. Good Luck and keep filming! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted February 9, 2013 Hey Flatlander could you run the odds for the early archery 3a/c and 5bs for a resident with 7 points? Thanks! 3A/3C - 10% 5BS - 14% (Bonus pass was 8 pts last year) Hey Flatlander could you please run the odds for the unit 8 late rifle and unit 7 west late and rifle and 23 late rifle for a resident with 3 points 7W - 17% 8 - 20% 23 - 20% 7 points for general bull 4b,andgeneral bull 5b what are the odds,and i will be applying with a buddy that has same bonus points,will that affect my chances or should i put in solo? Late Rifle 4B - 100% Late Rifle 5B - 100% Shouldn't matter solo or double with 7 bo you are deep into the bonus pass. Could you please give me odds for Unit 9 and 23N archery with 13 points? 9 - 100% 23N - 6% Last year the bonus pass tags went to applicants with 17, 15 and 14 points. There were 5 applicants with 14 points so assuming the other 4 did not draw other hunts and apply for the same hunt this year you would still be on the outside looking in because only 3 tags are given in the bonus pass. Additionally there were 4 guys with 13 points last year. So with all this being said you can have 9 this year, but 23N could take a couple more years to reach via the bonus pass. I anticipate seeing point creep in 23N for a while because so few tags are issued. Ok guys I think I got everyone what they needed. I hope everyone was aware that these are my own statistics, not from Hunter's Trailhead. I build my own spreadsheets and calculate my own odds. They have traditionally been very close to what I have read on HT, but our methodology does differ. Good luck to everyone in the draw! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wildcat Report post Posted February 9, 2013 Thanks Flatlander I appreciate you doing this! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
azcoues Report post Posted February 9, 2013 thanks flatlander you are awesome to run these numbers for fellow members on the best site ever!!good luck in the draw everyone! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
couesbowhunter1 Report post Posted February 9, 2013 can you please check 4 bonus points for unit 27 archery bull! thanks Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sneekfreak Report post Posted February 9, 2013 Thanks for the info Flat! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted February 10, 2013 can you please check 4 bonus points for unit 27 archery bull! thanks 11% - Took 7 to make the bonus pass Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
out2hunt Report post Posted February 10, 2013 Thanks again for everything Flatlander! I picked 9 muzzy 1st choice and 5a archery second choice. I do believe I should draw the 5a tag with my 9 points. The 7e peaks hunt was tempting, as it is an early rifle bull hunt, but I know 5a and it's potential so I have decided to get up close and personal for my first Bull. I wish everyone the very best this year in the field, especially Mr. Flatlander, TAM, and Kevin and Family. Many Blessings, Ken Meyers 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
azcouesfanatic Report post Posted February 10, 2013 Out2hunt, you will definitely draw the 5a tag without a doubt. Something you might want to be aware of is that you have no chance to draw the muzzy 9 tag because the way the draw works is the bonus point pass draw is conducted first. Since 9 points is not enough to get in the unit 9 muzzy bonus pass draw you will automatically draw 5a before the regular draw is even conducted. This is something to be aware of when you start getting up there in points and you are considering applying for an easier draw unit. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Coues79 Report post Posted February 10, 2013 Out2hunt, you will definitely draw the 5a tag without a doubt. Something you might want to be aware of is that you have no chance to draw the muzzy 9 tag because the way the draw works is the bonus point pass draw is conducted first. Since 9 points is not enough to get in the unit 9 muzzy bonus pass draw you will automatically draw 5a before the regular draw is even conducted. This is something to be aware of when you start getting up there in points and you are considering applying for an easier draw unit. Exactly correct. I run into this predicament more with deer than with elk. If you aren't on top of it, you will never draw your first choice hunt that is deep into bonus point pass....if you always put a bonus pass hunt as your second choice. Something I'm gonna have to figure out this year for deer.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
out2hunt Report post Posted February 11, 2013 I did not realize I was cutting my nose off to spite my face! I will be EXTREMELY HAPPY with a 5a archery tag, but had I known 9 archery first choice probably would have given me a chance at first choice. I have waited long enough and desire the hunt more than the wait. Thank you Brian for the important information for future draws. This knowledge will benefit my son in the years to come. Good luck on your unit 3 and 27 choices! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flatlander Report post Posted February 11, 2013 Out2hunt, you will definitely draw the 5a tag without a doubt. Something you might want to be aware of is that you have no chance to draw the muzzy 9 tag because the way the draw works is the bonus point pass draw is conducted first. Since 9 points is not enough to get in the unit 9 muzzy bonus pass draw you will automatically draw 5a before the regular draw is even conducted. This is something to be aware of when you start getting up there in points and you are considering applying for an easier draw unit. Spot on. The only way that this could change is if there were enough new applicants in 5A with 9+ points to push the bonus pass up. I don't anticipate that happening. So good luck and enjoy your tag. It is well deserved after much waiting and anticipation. Every elk I have ever killed was in 5A and as a kid I used to lay in bed and dream about chasing bugling bulls around Clint's Well. It is the birth place of my obsession. The first hunt I ever went on was an early cow hunt there when I was 11 years old. I went back every fall until I was 22. Let the dreaming and anticipation begin. BTW Unit 9 archery as a first choice would have left you in the same predicament. Don't look back. Has anyone had their card hit yet? Haha Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
out2hunt Report post Posted February 11, 2013 Flatlander, I appreciate your positive attitude towards the situation, and there is no looking back now! It is good to know that your positive experiences and memories are of the same unit I want to hunt in. I watched my buddy arrow his first bull in the timber east of brown tank. All of the elk I have that I have seen drop were in the northern half of the unit(except my son's cow in 6a), but have heard that I have been missing the action that goes on further south in the unit. My girlfriend says that I'm obsessed already.....(little did she know, I've been obsessed for 9 years!) and it will only get worse! Let the planning begin! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
