Elk Draw odds question

[azoutlaw]

Azcoues. I agree. Our draw system is hands down better than most states. Most people just don't understand how it works.

[Alpinebullwinkle]

I like our Arizona system unquestionably better than other states. Having said that, the bonus point piece of the system is not as effective as it could be with slight changes. In the past I have suggested to AGFD to square the bonus points to tighten the bell curve up and make bonus points more effective in the selection process. I have even had a black belt data person verify the proposal would add value. For some reason I have not heard a reasonable response from AGFD why they are not in favor of enhancing the system in that way.

[SunDevil]

or increase the 20% to say 40%

[AverageJoe]

Its fine the way it is.

[azcouesfanatic]

I think you should have to sit out 3 years after drawing a premium tag because this would ultimately help lower the max bonus point pool to a much more reasonable number. There have been many great suggestion but AZGFD always holds fast to what they have always done. It would be nice to see a system implemented that lowered the max pool. I definately feel that those with tons of points deserve to draw their tag.

[AZkiller]

Azkiller. Say what????? Umpqua is spot on. I can't believe how many of you guys don't even know how the draw process works. Educate yourselves people.

The odds of receiving a permit for a second choice

hunt instead of a first choice hunt are calculated by subtracting

the draw rate for the first choice hunt from the

draw rate for the second choice hunt. The odds for receiving

your first or second choice would therefore be

the same as your highest odds choice.

 

There it is, right out of the book!!!

[Lucafu1]

haha that was funny.

[azoutlaw]

There is no way to calculate the draw odds of a second choice. To many variables. Now settle down and don't get your panties in a bunch

ps Im not an asshole

[azoutlaw]

.Let me try to throw an example out there

 

1-- lets say you put unit 9 bull first and 6a cow second.

You draw a mediocre number thats not low enough for a 9 bull tag but good enough for a 6a cow tag.

There were 531 1st and 2nd choice applicants last year for 6a the cow hunt.

There is no way of knowing how many were first or second (That i know of)

And even if there were there is no way to tell how many of the people that put it as there second choice, drew their first choice.

Lets say out of the 531 apps maybe 400 were second choice.

So there are so many variables with what happens on those guys first choices to know how many tags would be available on a second choice pick. All depends where your number falls in the order of drawing along with the other 400 people that had a first choice in front of that 6a cow hunt.

 

Does that make sense????

I think i just confused myself so i doubt it. lol

By the way that comment was not aimed at you. Just seems a lot of people dont have a clue on the draw proccess. Im far from an expert on it but i at least know the basics enough to make smart choices on my apps.

[azgutpile]

Az killer is correct... 3rd choice is a different story.

[wapitibob]

"There were 531 1st and 2nd choice applicants last year for 6a the cow hunt.

There is no way of knowing how many were first or second (That i know of)

And even if there were there is no way to tell how many of the people that put it as there second choice, drew their first choice."

 

 

2011 6a antlerless, archery, 20% Bonus pass draw

 

91 res 1st choice, 1 issued

535 res 2nd choice, 24 issued

7 res 2nd choice applicants drew 1st choice

[DCMHunter]

I am with SunDevil Raise the bonus pass to 40%...

 

DCM